Tonight's gold is easy to do and easy to do, which is nothing more than choosing to participate in the key price according to our previous trading experience, and the layout before and after the data. The problem lies in the complexity of the current market environment. First of all, the price of gold is hovering at the recent highs.
Regarding the risk aversion brought about by the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, gold prices have also risen from around 1830. This increase is not much different from the increase during the Russia-Ukraine crisis. Therefore, the market is currently saturated with the absorption of risk aversion. The corresponding market wants to get some information from the Fed's interest rate decision, and Powell's speech in the early hours of Thursday morning was a solid dovish. It didn't give much guidance for the future, but it was more inclined to go up. After all, he said that restrictive policies are nearing the end. Market expectations for another rate hike at the end of the year have also weakened.
This means that market sentiment needs a new direction or data to guide it. In this way, this opportunity falls on this employment data. Judging by the current performance, we can only refer to three scenarios in the job market. They are not very influential (this impact is not big, what is said is that the data is not too outrageous, and there is no extreme bullish and negative situation), and the market will go short-term sweeping shocks.
That is to say, our layout before the data is to take into account the recent short-term suppression of the price 1992 pressure effectively bearish gold, after all, from the perspective of non-farm payrolls, it is clear that in recent months, the number of non-farm payrolls has not been less than 180,000, or very little. Therefore, the release of data this time is likely to be a bearish performance for gold. The corresponding gold trend idea is to fall first and then rise. Watch for support at the recent four-hour low of 1975 below. According to this range, the disk is swept and processed.
After the situation of little impact appears, it is necessary to pay attention to the growth rate of hourly wages. If the growth rate rises, it is bearish for gold, but it will only lead to a slight decline in gold prices. The market outlook promotes the rise in gold prices, because the wage growth rate has risen, which is conducive to the upward trend of inflation. The corresponding trend of gold tends to move upwards. In turn, the decline in hourly wage growth will cause the gold price to rise first. When the pressure level is reached, bearish gold can be considered
If there is an extreme situation, I can think of the current high interest rate environment, the economy is under strong pressure, and the corresponding unemployment rate will rise sharply. This is the case if it does not exceed 4%. Then the effect of bullish gold is limited. The high probability is also a reference to the 1975 support bullish gold. But if it is given above 4.2%, the market will have a situation of big welfare and more gold.
Although the slowdown in the labor market has contributed to the decline in inflation, leading to a rise in real interest rates, which in turn has suppressed the decline in gold prices. But the problem is that if the labor market is directly weak, the unemployment rate is too high, which will lead the market to expect an early Fed rate cut. So that's the key to trading in the gold market tonight.
Personally, I prefer the first case, which is less impactful. Therefore, according to the analysis of the non-agricultural ideas in the evening, it will participate in the transaction according to the key trading price. If the data is more extreme, the corresponding can only set the key price further. If the extreme situation mentioned above does occur, be prepared and don't start trading lightly.
From a technical point of view:
This is the key trading price of gold given today, and you can refer to it as appropriate. Mainly from a technical point of view, the pressure of last night 1992 was effective. At the same time, the lower side did not continue to make new lows, and it is expected that there will still be bullish forces in the short-term price position. That is, consider the support of 1975 bullish. In the event of an extreme situation, the range should be widened to the 1954-2013 range.
But no matter what you're going to do tonight, I hope you all do a good job of risk control and avoid holding positions over the weekend. After all, the international environment is unstable, and at the same time, the probability of washing up at this price is also very high to avoid profit-taking.
Personal opinions are for informational purposes only. As a trader, I have been in the market for 7 years, and the above content represents my humble opinion and is not used as a basis for investors. If you agree with my point of view. Welcome to follow, like, and forward. If you disagree with my views, you are welcome to correct them. Personal originality, it is not easy, without permission, may not be reproduced and carried, thank you for your understanding