The "report card" of the third quarterly report of A-share PV, who is better in polysilicon, modules and inverters?
With the end of the disclosure of the third quarterly report of A-shares, listed companies in all walks of life have also handed over their "report cards". Since 2023, the hot spots of the market have been occupied by themes such as artificial intelligence, diet pill concept, Huawei concept, etc., although the stock price of track stocks is no longer the glory of the past, but for many investors, there is always a place for new energy stocks in the self-selection pool, whether it is photovoltaic, wind power or new energy vehicles, all of which have a real impact on human society and people's lives.
There are many links and products in the photovoltaic industry chain, and there are dozens of products such as silicon materials, silicon wafers, silver pastes, cells, photovoltaic glass, adhesive films, backsheets, and modules from the industrial map of the Flush iFinD industry chain center. In this article, polysilicon, modules, and inverters are selected to compare the performance of their respective companies in the first three quarters.
The industrial chain is still in a downward trend in prices
After entering 2023, most of the products in the main links of the photovoltaic industry chain are in a downward trend in price, Zhongyuan Securities released on October 30 "Photovoltaic Industry Chain Prices Decline, Third Quarter Performance Shows a Divergent Trend" said that as of October 25, the prices of polysilicon densifiers, monocrystalline silicon wafers, monocrystalline PERC cells, monofacial monocrystalline PERC modules and other products in the photovoltaic industry chain have dropped significantly compared with the end of September, and there will still be downward pressure in the future.
Silver Persimmon Finance sorted out the Flush iFinD data and found that most of the main links of the entire photovoltaic industry chain are still in a downward trend that will start after 2023. The trend of polysilicon density, monocrystalline silicon wafers, and mainstream module varieties is particularly obvious, and the average price of photovoltaic inverters (2000W+) is relatively stable. Among them, the average price of polysilicon dense material fell by 72.17% from the highest 230 yuan/kg in March to the lowest 64 yuan/kg in the year, although the price rebounded in July, but began to decline again in late October, and the price was 74 yuan/kg on November 1. The average price of 210 mono-Si wafers reached RMB 8.2/pc in March, down 58.53% from RMB 3.4/pc on November 1, while the average price of mainstream modules dropped by 39.13% from RMB 1.84/W on January 4 to RMB 1.12/W on November 1.
Source: Straight Flush iFinD
Polysilicon companies are the hardest hit
Through Flush iFinD, Silver Persimmon Finance inquired on the condition that the total market value of photovoltaic silicon materials, photovoltaic modules, and photovoltaic inverters was greater than 10 billion yuan (as of 14:00 on November 3), and screened according to the relevance of the company's business to the concept, and finally obtained the data. Among them, the photovoltaic silicon material company is Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438. SH), Daqo Energy (688303. SH) and 4 others, and the photovoltaic inverters are Sungrow (300274.SZ), GoodWe (688390. SH) and 15 others, and the photovoltaic modules include LONGi Green Energy (601012.SH), JA Solar Technology (002459. SZ) and 15 others. According to Flush iFinD data, the average net profit of photovoltaic silicon material companies in the first three quarters was -39.96% year-on-year, the average year-on-year of photovoltaic inverter companies was 75.84%, and the average year-on-year net profit of photovoltaic module companies was 100.57%. It can be seen that polysilicon companies have been the most seriously injured since 2023. Daqo Energy's third quarter report stated that "from January to September 2023, due to the decline in polysilicon prices, the scale of revenue declined, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies declined", which may explain the current situation of polysilicon companies to a certain extent.
In terms of inverters, shipments seem to have become a key factor, and the core enterprises are Sungrow and Jinlang Technology (300763. SZ) performance growth rate in the first three quarters was quite different, with net profit increasing by 250.53% and 6.84% year-on-year respectively. When analyzing the performance of Sungrow, Soochow Securities pointed out that the company's inverter shipments in 2023Q3 increased year-on-year, while Minsheng Securities said that Jinlang Technology's inverter shipments in Q3 were affected by European channel inventory, and the company's inverter shipments declined, resulting in a decline in revenue in the third quarter.
Multiple factors underpinned module performance
Although the average price of mainstream PV modules has also declined, factors such as increased demand, lower prices of raw materials, breakthroughs in new technologies, and integrated layout have supported the growth of module manufacturers to a certain extent. Although the average price of mainstream module products fell by 39.13% from the peak in March to November 1, the polysilicon densifier in the upstream raw material fell by 67.82% from 74 yuan/kg on November 1 compared with March, a greater decline.
JinkoSolar (688223. SH) "Third Quarter Report" shows that the growth of performance in the first three quarters is mainly due to the strong global market demand, the company's strategic advantages of global layout and localized operation, the company's photovoltaic module shipments have increased significantly, and revenue has increased significantly. Canadian Solar (688472. SH) said that the shipment of photovoltaic modules increased significantly compared with the same period last year, and benefited from the "vertical integration" of production capacity layout and the decline in the overall raw material price level, which greatly reduced the comprehensive manufacturing cost and greatly improved the gross profit margin.
According to Pacific Securities, the global module production capacity was about 683GW and the output was about 347GW at the end of 2022. JinkoSolar's module shipments in the first half of 2023 were 30.8GW, ranking first in the industry, of which N-type module shipments were 16.4GW. It can be seen that the advantages of integration and new technology products are more important for module manufacturers.
In the first three quarters of 2023, although most of the major segments of the PV industry chain experienced price declines, the impact of price reductions varied among different segments, with polysilicon companies suffering overall setbacks, while some inverters and module makers received strong support from factors such as shipments and integrated layout.