Tonight, less than expected!

Tonight, the United States announced that the number of non-farm payrolls in October increased by 150,000, with an estimated increase of 180,000 and a previous increase of 336,000.

The U.S. unemployment rate was 3.9% in October, the highest since January 2022, compared to market expectations of 3.8%.

The data fell short of expectations, the dollar index dived, and U.S. stock futures rose.

The main reason is: the expectation of interest rate hike is close to zero, and the expectation of interest rate cut has risen sharply!

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note also plunged lower.

In the past two days, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note has fallen sharply in a row, and a few days ago, it just broke through 5%, and now only 4.55% remains.

After the release of the data non-farm payrolls, swap market prices showed that the Fed's first rate cut was expected to be brought forward to June next year, after July next year.

In the early hours of yesterday morning, after the Federal Reserve announced that it would not raise interest rates, Powell was still stubborn:

Economic activity expanded "strongly" in the third quarter, while employment growth slowed but remained strong. The possibility of another rate hike in the future is still retained in case inflation continues to climb. At present, there is no interest rate cut at all, and there will still be a focus on curbing inflation.

However, judging from the current situation, it is inevitable that the US economy will slow down and even fall into recession.

Now, the Fed is still holding its lip shut, presumably for the November APEC meeting.

After the meeting, the Fed is not expected to be stiff again.

Yesterday, foreign investors bought a net of 2.7 billion A shares, and today they bought another 7.1 billion.

The sentinel believes that there are three reasons for the return of foreign capital:

1. With the decline in U.S. bond yields, the interest rate gap between China and the United States is narrowing, which is one of the important reasons for the return of foreign capital to A-shares in the past two days.

2. The National Security Bureau stepped forward to deter the bears.

This news, which was sent yesterday morning, was dug up by the financial media at about 10 o'clock this morning and quickly made the headlines of major financial media.

This is mainly aimed at foreign investment.

After the news came out, A-shares quickly soared.

Some people say, why should foreign capital talk about politics?

First of all, there are a large number of "fake foreign capital" in the northbound capital, which is actually domestic capital, and they have to talk about politics.

Second, for "real foreign investment", with the repair of Sino-US relations, the momentum of Wall Street's short selling should also be reversed.

Moreover, the issuance of the document by the National Security Bureau at this time should also be a breakthrough in the negotiations between China and the United States in the financial field.

3. Financial openness

Tonight's financial headlines are:

The China Securities Regulatory Commission once again stated that it will support leading securities companies to become better and stronger through business innovation, group operation, mergers and acquisitions, etc., and build a first-class investment bank!

On Tuesday night, at the financial work conference, it was proposed for the first time to "cultivate first-class investment banks and investment institutions".

Tonight, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has given an implementation plan: a merger.

Regarding the merger of brokers, it has been rumored for several years.

Why is it necessary to make substantial progress now?

The answer can only be: financial openness.

Foreign-funded financial institutions want to come in, and domestic institutions have to compete with others, so they can only hold together.

On the issue of financial liberalization, progress should have been made recently.

For A-shares, Sentinel's view remains the same: the market has bottomed out.

Ningwang has completed the bottom test last week, and foreign capital has also returned (turned) significantly in the past two days, and the two major signals have been gathered, further clarifying the bottom signal.

It's just that the bottom of A-shares has always been more abrasive, so everyone needs to be patient and stay focused!