Trillions of water releases, a little too little

Recently, the "God of Wealth" spoke.

An additional 1 trillion yuan of government bonds will be issued in the fourth quarter of this year to support post-disaster recovery and reconstruction and to enhance disaster prevention, mitigation and relief capabilities.

Of course, this is the obvious reason.

The real reason for the God of Wealth to stand up is probably that there is really no money in the local area.

Otherwise, how could the "special refinancing bonds" that had been dormant for several years be re-sold?

It seems that the next step is to continue to release water.

1

Speaking of the issuance of trillions of treasury bonds, many people will compare the 4 trillion in 08, but in fact, the two are different.

First of all, the 1 trillion yuan special treasury bond was sold in the name of the above, but all the money raised was used by the local government, and it was not included in the local debt, and it was counted as the fiscal deficit above.

In a word, it is the local debt, and the top will pay it back.

Secondly, the two uses are not the same. In 2008, it was all about stimulating market investment and consumption, but this time it was for disaster prevention and mitigation, and it is a special government bond.

In a word, 08 was a charge, and this time it was just a defensive camp.

Therefore, if we understand this, we will know that this trillion will not stimulate the rise of prices, nor will it drive up housing prices, and his main purpose is to boost market confidence and help localize debts!

To put it bluntly, whoever said that it was good would take the child away, and whoever owed the debt would pay it by himself, and in the end, the God of Wealth would have to pay for it. For this reason, the above has forcibly pulled the 3% bond issuance ceiling set at the beginning of the year to 3.8%, which can be described as well-intentioned.

In addition, the special treasury bonds are not the same as the local refinancing bonds, but they are only a supplement to the local government bonds.

From the end of September, starting with the issuance of bonds in Inner Mongolia, in just one month, more than 20 regions across the country have disclosed their plans to issue special refinancing bonds, with a disclosed amount of 1,043 billion.

The city represented by Tianjin has started the second round of bond issuance, and now it is expected to be 1.5~2 trillion.

And the money borrowed from the bank in the name of the local government, plus the special national bonds on it this time, is almost 3 trillion yuan, and all this money is used to fill the holes for the local government.

The question is, is this money enough?

2

Obviously not enough.

According to data released in August this year, the balance of our local debt is 38,748 billion yuan. The 38.75 trillion yuan is only explicit debt, not including the implicit debt guaranteed by various localities for their own urban investment platforms.

In fact, at the end of last year, the interest-bearing debt of local urban investment platforms was about 65 trillion yuan, that is, the total debt scale of all together has exceeded 100 trillion yuan, and the debt ratio is about 86%.

The final size of this special refinancing bond is expected to be around 1.5-2 trillion, and it can be said that there is still a big difference between 2 trillion and 100 trillion.

But there is really no way, the local government has done its best, and the city commercial banks in various places really can't carry it.

Originally, after the debt swap, the good thing is that the original hidden risk assets have become truly risk-free assets, but in doing so, the net interest margin of the bank will definitely narrow, and the corresponding bank yield will definitely decline significantly, and the bank is still under great pressure.

In addition, the current speed of debt reduction is so rapid that if the debt is carried on again, I am afraid that some local urban commercial banks will have a thunderstorm at the end of the year.

Therefore, the above has no choice but to give the local government another trillion yuan, which is the development of the whole incident with local debt as the core to the present.

And through this context, you can also see how difficult it is to sell this land this year, and how big the hole of local debt is!

3

Further, at the end of this year, the God of Wealth chose this special financial tool to issue additional special treasury bonds, and deliberately increased leverage, and even broke through the deficit rate.

The purpose is to alleviate the pressure on local finances and optimize the structure of local debts through this kind of transfer payment. It should be said that this is a very important signal, which means that there will be more innovations and breakthroughs in the future.

Looking back, since the above uses finance to fill local holes, is this trillion national debt a bit too little?

However, the opening has been opened, and the future will be 2 trillion, 3 trillion, 4 trillion... Will it be far?

At the end of the day, the game of a new round of debt transfer is about to start again, are you ready?

That's all I can talk about on this topic, and everyone who understands it understands.

What are the deeper meanings of this special treasury bond issuance? What are the positive impacts on the liquidity of the big A market, and what are the benefits to the people? I also prepared two documents for you: