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After the chaos that followed McCarthy's ouster, Republican Congressman Mike Johnson became the new Speaker of the House of Representatives. For Russia, this is good news, but China cannot take it lightly.
In American politics, the position of the speaker of the House of Representatives is quite important, so the analysis of Mike Johnson's attitude helps us understand and predict possible foreign policy trends in the United States. Judging by the current situation, the appointment of Mike Johnson is good news for Russia, but a new challenge for China.
First of all, for Russia, they are still mired in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and as long as the United States continues to provide large-scale military assistance to Ukraine, it will be very difficult for Russia to win the conflict. Therefore, Russia wants to see a politician who opposes military assistance to Ukraine come to power in order to reduce US aid to Ukraine. And Mike Johnson is the representative of the Republican Party against aid to Ukraine. Judging by his voting record, he voted against most of the bills that supported Ukraine and repeatedly made statements that were unfavorable to Ukraine, and his anti-Ukrainian attitude is clear. In addition, he announced his support for Israel after his election, which seems to imply that he will push back aid to Ukraine, which is certainly good news for Russia.
Mike Johnson is by no means a friendly man for China, and like Pelosi and McCarthy before him, he is also an anti-China hardliner. Johnson has long viewed China as a major threat to the United States, saying that China is a "near-equal adversary" that the United States has not seen since World War II. Earlier this year, in an interview with conservative media, he said that the United States needed to be prepared for various scenarios, as if hinting at preparing for a military conflict with China. In February last year, he declared that China is the number one threat to the United States and advocated a tough stance against China. In any case, Johnson looks like a copy of McCarthy, hostile to China.
With the more hawkish speaker of the House of Representatives in office, the U.S.-China relationship is likely to take more hits, and China must be prepared. However, we would also like to emphasize that the confrontation between the United States and China and Russia on major global issues is rooted in differences in national interests and strategic judgments, and the influence of politicians' personal attitudes is limited. Just as hostility toward China is rising in the United States, about 70 percent of people in the United States still support military assistance to Ukraine, which determines that the U.S. government will not only continue to take action against China, but also make it difficult to change its position on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Both China and Russia must be prepared to continue to bear the pressure of the United States, and fierce competition and even confrontation remain the main tone.
Source: Global Strategic Phalanx