U.S. stocks rose more than 1%, but Tesla fell nearly 5%, U.S. oil fell more than 4% intraday, and the yen rose above 149 for the first time in two weeks

The market awaits the interest rate decisions of the Bank of Japan, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England from Tuesday to Thursday, and the consensus expectation is that the United States and the United Kingdom will not raise interest rates for the time being, and the latest news is that the Bank of Japan may allow the 10-year Japanese bond yield to break through 1%, and the yen has risen above 149 against the dollar for the first time in two weeks.

A series of employment and inflation data from Europe and the United States were released this week, and economists expect headline inflation in the eurozone to slow from 4.3% to 3.1% as Germany's preliminary harmonized CPI fell to a two-year low of 3% in October. The U.S. non-farm payrolls are also expected to cool in October.

Futures markets are betting on the ECB cutting interest rates for the first time in June, a month earlier than earlier expected, and fully pricing in three 25 basis point rate cuts next year. However, two members of the voting committee refuted speculation that interest rate cuts would begin in the first half of next year, and said that further tightening of policy was likely.

The WTO Director-General warned that if the new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict spreads to the wider Middle East, it will affect the global economy and trade growth. According to the World Bank, the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East could cause a double whammy to commodity markets and significantly push oil prices higher.

U.S. President Joe Biden signed an executive order issuing the White House's first generative AI regulation, requiring multiple government agencies to develop standards to prevent threats such as the use of AI to design biological or nuclear weapons, seek best practices for content verification such as "watermarking," and develop advanced cybersecurity programs.

The Dow rose more than 510 points to record the biggest gain in nearly five months, and the S&P market temporarily left a technical pullback, but Tesla hit a new five-month low

Monday, October 30 was the penultimate trading day of the month, with U.S. stocks opening higher and moving higher, with technology stocks leading the broader market at the beginning of the session.

The Dow and Nasdaq rose more than 100 points at the opening, the three major stock indexes collectively rose more than 1% in about 10 minutes after the opening, and 11 S&P sectors rose across the board, with communication services, consumer discretionary and technology sectors leading the way.

At midday, the Dow maintained gains of nearly 400 points or 1.2%, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq nearly halved gains, and Russell small-cap stocks nearly erased 1.2% gains. Subsequently, the U.S. stock market rose again and closed near the daily high, with the three major indexes all rising more than 1%.

The Dow Jones stopped falling for three consecutive days, pushing up to 33,000 integers and breaking away from the lowest in seven months since March 28, rising more than 510 points, the largest increase in nearly five months since June 2. The S&P stopped falling for three days and came off a five-month low since May 24, its best performance since late August, and the communication services sector rose more than 2% and recorded the biggest increase in two months. The Nasdaq rose for two consecutive days since May 24, and Russell small-cap stocks came off their three-year lows since November 2020:

The S&P 500 index closed up 49.45 points, or 1.20%, at 4,166.82. The Dow closed up 511.37 points, or 1.58%, at 32,928.96. The Nasdaq closed up 146.47 points, or 1.16%, at 12,789.48. The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.1%, the Russell 2000 small-cap index rose 0.6%, and the "fear index" VIX fell 8% and fell below the 20 mark.

The Dow rose the most in nearly five months, the S&P temporarily left a technical pullback, and the Nasdaq tested its 200-day moving average

The S&P 500 is down more than 9% from its new 52-week closing high set at the end of July, temporarily out of the technical correction range that it fell into last Friday, and is now down 2.8% in October, about to fall for the first time in 2020 for three consecutive months.

Star tech stocks rose, but Tesla fell nearly 5% to a five-month low, falling below $200 for the first time since the end of May; Metaverse" Meta rose 2% to a one-week high, Apple rose more than 1% and rebounded from the lowest in nearly six months for two days, Amazon rose nearly 4% to a six-week high, Netflix rose 3% to a more than one-month high, Microsoft rose more than 2% to approach a three-month high, and Google A rose nearly 2% to a three-month low.

Tesla fell nearly 5% to a five-month low

Chip stocks were mixed. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 1.3%, falling below 3,200 points to a five-month low. Intel rose 0.4% to a two-week high, AMD narrowed its decline to 0.3%, still close to a five-and-a-half-month low, and Nvidia closed up 1.6% after rising more than 4% to get out of a four-month low; ARM fell more than 2%, approaching the lowest after listing; Western Digital rose more than 13% and then closed up more than 7%, the largest increase in 17 months in intraday trading; ON Semiconductor fell nearly 22% to its lowest drop in nine months and its biggest decline in three-and-a-half years, making it the worst performer among S&P 500 constituents.

AI concept stocks have pulled back for many days. C3.ai fell nearly 2%, the lowest in two consecutive days to three weeks, and Palantir Technologies fell 2.5%, falling for four consecutive days to the lowest in one month; SoundHound.ai erased a nearly 4% decline and BigBear.ai fell 2%, both hovering at a nine-month low.

On the news side, Apple will hold a "Scary Fast" online event at 5 p.m. California time, which is expected to take advantage of the market recovery to release new iMac computers and high-end MacBook Pro computer upgrades, as well as the next generation of self-developed high-performance chip M3. Apple will also release its third quarterly report after the U.S. stock market on Thursday to close off the earnings season of big tech companies, and is currently selling price cuts for the iPhone 15 series in the official flagship stores of Taobao and JD.com.

Meanwhile, Facebook and Instagram will offer ad-free subscription services in Europe, and Tianfeng International, Ming-Chi Kuo said Meta has downgraded the fourth-quarter shipments of the Quest 3 virtual reality headset by about 5% to 10%. Brokerage Bernstein reiterated its rating on Tesla, saying the outlook remains uncertain. Western Digital's third quarterly report exceeded expectations, and it will create two independent public companies for hard disk and flash data storage. ON Semiconductor's third-quarter report exceeded expectations, but poor earnings and revenue guidance in the fourth quarter dragged European stock Infineon down more than 6%.

The China Concept Index chased the broader U.S. stock market. ETF KWEB closed up 0.5% after rising nearly 2%, CQQQ rose nearly 2%, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) closed up 0.8% after rising nearly 2%, rising above 6,300 points, rising for three consecutive days and recovering nearly half of the losses since last Tuesday.

Among the Nasdaq 100 constituent stocks, JD.com rose more than 1%, Baidu fell nearly 1%, and Pinduoduo fell nearly 4%. Among other stocks, Alibaba and Li Auto narrowed their gains to 0.4%, Tencent ADR rose nearly 2%, Bilibili rose more than 4%, and NIO and Xpeng Motors rose more than 1%.

Bank stock indexes rose. The industry benchmark Philadelphia Stock Exchange's KBW Bank Index (BKX) rose 1.9%, off its lowest three-year level since September 2020. The KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index (KRX) rose 1.5%, moving further off its four-and-a-half-month low, after hitting its lowest since November 2020 on May 11.

Bank of America stock indexes have largely erased losses since Friday

Other stocks that have moved more include:

The traditional American auto giants turned down at the beginning of the session, with General Motors falling 1.6% and then rising 0.5%, Ford Motor falling nearly 3% at one point, and Stellantis (Stellantis) rising 2% and then falling more than 1%. General Motors and the United Auto Workers (UAW) have reached a tentative agreement to end the six-week strike on behalf of all three major Michigan auto companies and union organizations. Deutsche Bank expects the new agreement to increase total costs by $6.2 billion for Ford, $7.2 billion for General Motors and $6.4 billion for Stellantis.

Fast food giant McDonald's rose nearly 2% to the highest in a month, with third-quarter revenue, earnings, and same-store sales all exceeding expectations, thanks to a price increase strategy, but traffic in the U.S. market fell for the first time.

European stocks rose, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 index off its lowest level in nearly 10 months set on Friday, with the healthcare sector leading the market, falling more than 4% in October on concerns about low corporate earnings and long-term interest rates remaining high. HSBC, Europe's largest bank by assets, both fell about 2% in Europe and the United States, and its after-tax profit in the third quarter surged 235% to $6.26 billion, still below expectations.

U.S. short-term bond yields fell off two-week lows, long-term bond yields narrowed, and the U.S. government lowered the scale of borrowing in the fourth quarter

U.S. Treasury yields collectively edged higher, but the yield on the 10-year base bond was less than 4.90%, having risen above the 5% mark and hitting a 16-year high on Monday a week ago. According to some analysts, U.S. Treasury yields may enter a downward channel in the next 12 months.

However, in the short term, traders are betting that the 10-year Treasury yield will return to 5%, focusing on the US Treasury's bond issuance plan for the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year this week, and the expansion of bond issuance will weigh on US bond prices.

The yield on the two-year Treasury note, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, rose as much as 6 basis points to 5.07%, off a two-week low; The yield on 10-year base bonds rose nearly 8 basis points and then halved, not far from a one-week low; The yield on the 30-year bond rose 7 basis points and basically gave up all of its gains, but failed to push it up to 5.10%, mainly due to the US government lowering its forecast for the scale of Treasury financing in the fourth quarter.

U.S. short-term bond yields fell off two-week lows, and long-term bond yields narrowed significantly in late trading

Inflation and economic growth in Germany, the eurozone's largest economy, both cooled, further triggering recession fears, and European bond yields fell. The 10-year German bond yield, the eurozone benchmark, gave up an earlier rise to 2.83%, away from a 12-year high of 3.024% in early October. The two-year yield fell 1 basis point, well below the 15-year high set in July, when it rose above 3.39%.

The yield on the 10-year Italian bond on the eurozone's benchmark for the more indebted peripheral countries fell more than 6 basis points and fell for three consecutive days, approaching a two-week low, away from an 11-year high of 5.035% on October 19, and narrowing the spread with the benchmark German bond to less than 190 basis points, the narrowest in nearly four weeks. UK 10-50 year yields rose more than 3 basis points, and 10-year Japanese bond yields approached an 11-year high.

Oil prices closed down more than 3%, and U.S. oil fell more than 4% intraday, once falling below $82 to a three-week low

Oil prices fell on concerns about supply disruptions in the Middle East for the time being, as well as demand concerns under the weight of high interest rates in Europe and the United States. WTI December futures closed down $3.23, or 3.78%, at $82.31 a barrel. Brent December futures closed down $3.03, or 3.35%, at $87.45 a barrel.

U.S. oil WTI fell as deep as $3.70 or 4.3%, once falling below four integer levels of $85 to $82 in succession, hitting a three-week low since October 6. Brent oil December futures fell as deep as $3.26 or 3.6%, the daily low forced $87 and away from the $90 integer psychological mark, and the more actively traded January futures fell as deep as 3.8% and once fell below $86, hovering at a two-week low.

Oil prices have erased gains since the outbreak of a new round of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict

The World Bank expects oil prices to continue to fall in 2024, but the conflict in the Middle East is likely to push oil prices higher, with global oil prices expected to average $90 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year and fall further to $81 next year, with the escalation of the Middle East conflict pushing oil prices above the $100 mark at least.

There are also analysts who say the market has digested the news of Israel's push for ground operations in the Gaza Strip, triggering a "sell the facts" trading move, and other macroeconomic issues are driving oil prices lower due to Israel's limited ground operations.

European natural gas rushed higher and retreated. Benchmark TTF Dutch futures edged down 0.2%, still holding above the €50/MWh integer level, hovering at a one-week high, having been more than 7% in early trading, and ICE UK Natural Gas rose nearly 3% in late trading.

The U.S. dollar index fell to 106, the yen briefly rose above 149 to hit a two-week high, and the offshore yuan rose above 7.33 yuan

The DXY, a basket of six major currencies, fell as much as 0.5% and pushed below the 106 mark, erasing gains since Wednesday, hitting a one-month low of 105.35 on Monday and an 11-month high of 107.34 in early October.

The U.S. dollar index fell to 106

Non-US currencies rose. The EURUSD regained the 1.06 mark, moving off a one-week low, and the pound held above 1.21, moving further away from a three-week low. The Japanese yen rose as much as 0.5% against the dollar and rose above a fresh 149 to a two-week high, off a one-year low set last Thursday. The offshore yuan rose above 7.33 yuan, up 76 points from the previous day's close, off a one-week low. Israel's shekel rose 1% against the dollar.

The yen rose above 149 for the first time in nearly three weeks

Mainstream cryptocurrencies were mixed. Bitcoin, the largest by market capitalization, fell nearly 1% but held above the $34,000 mark, having risen above $35,000 last Tuesday for the first time since May last year. Ethereum, the second-largest Ethereum, edged down and fell below $1,800, still hovering at a two-month high. On the news, the UK government confirmed that it will have formal regulatory legislation for the cryptocurrency industry by 2024.

Futures closed above $2,000 for the first time in three months, London metal rose, and Dr. Copper hit a four-week high intraday

A weaker dollar boosted gold prices. COMEX gold futures for December delivery closed up more than 0.35% at $2,005.60 an ounce, closing above the 2,000-point integer psychological mark for the first time since July 31. Silver futures exceeded 2.2%.

Spot gold rose above $2,000 for the first time since mid-May on Friday, and U.S. stocks turned lower at the beginning of the session on Monday and fell slightly off that mark, still not far from a five-month high. Futures rose 7.6% in October, which will be the best monthly performance since March.

Spot gold edged lower in U.S. stocks and fell below the $2,000 mark

Industrial base metals rose in London. The economic bellwether "Dr. Copper" rose 0.5% and rose above $8,100, hitting a four-week high since Oct. 2, thanks to stable growth in China and a decline in inventories on the London Stock Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange.

London aluminum rose 2%, basically recovering all the losses since October 4; London zinc and London lead fell slightly, both not far from two-week highs; London nickel rose 0.6% to a new one-week high, further off the two-year low; Lunxi rose 0.4% to $25,000, recovering more than half of the losses since last Wednesday.

In addition, the night market of domestic futures generally closed down, with fuel oil and LPG down 2.4%, bifocal down more than 1.3%, iron ore roughly flat, rapeseed meal and palm oil down about 2%. Shanghai nickel and stainless steel closed down more than 1% in overnight trading. Chicago wheat futures fell more than 1.7%, and soybean meal futures fell more than 3.5%.