The folding screen has soared, Huawei has become a "catfish", and the mobile phone market is finally recovering?

China Economic Weekly-Economic Net News (Reporter Sun Bing) On October 27, the International Data Corporation (IDC) released the latest quarterly tracking report on China's smartphone market. According to the report, in the third quarter of 2023, China's smartphone market shipped about 67.05 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 6.3%. In the first quarter of this year, China's smartphone market shipped about 65.44 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 11.8%; Shipments in the second quarter were about 64.3 million units, down 5% year-on-year.

Another market analyst, Canalys, reported a similar trend in the market. Canalys data shows that in the third quarter of 2023, China's smartphone market shipped about 66.7 million units, down 5% year-on-year. In the first quarter of this year, the shipment data was 67.6 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 11%; The second-quarter shipment data was 64.3 million units, down 5% year-on-year.

Although as of the third quarter of this year, China's smartphone market has gradually come out of the "darkest moment" at the beginning of the year, and the overall sales of the market are almost at the freezing point in ten years, but it still has not completely come out of the state of downturn and "grievance". However, there are signs that China's smartphone market has seen the dawn of recovery.

The mobile phone market, which has been "aggrieved", is finally recovering?

Guo Tianxiang, a senior analyst at IDC China, said that although there are no signs of improvement in China's smartphone market from the data in the third quarter, consumer demand is picking up significantly with the increase in market heat in the past month.

For example, IDC's monthly mobile phone sales out retail data shows that the actual retail sales of smartphones in China have increased by 0.4% year-on-year in the third quarter of this year, and the year-on-year growth trend continued in the first half of October.

IDC predicts in the report that with the gradual start of a new round of replacement cycle, the centralized listing of a large number of competitive new products of various brands and the promotion of year-end e-commerce platforms, China's smartphone market shipments are expected to usher in an inflection point in the fourth quarter of 2023, achieving the first rebound in nearly 10 quarters.

Judging from the performance of specific manufacturers, in the third quarter of 2023, China's top five smartphone manufacturers ranked Honor for the first time in four quarters, returning to the first place in the domestic mobile phone market with a market share of 19.3%. OPPO ranked second in the domestic market in terms of shipments, with a market share of 16.2%. Apple has a market share of 16.0%, ranking third. Vivo and Xiaomi ranked fourth and fifth with a market share of 16.0% and 15.7%, respectively.

Zhu Jiatao, senior analyst at Canalys, also believes: "With the firm investment of manufacturers and the optimization of channel incentive policies, as well as the expectation of a slow recovery of the consumer market, the Chinese market is gradually releasing signals of coming out of the trough." Market performance proves that consumers are willing to pay for products that are attractive and have a value proposition within their budget, despite longer replacement cycles. ”

Folding screen sales soared by 90.4%, Huawei's return will become a "catfish"?

Although the overall situation of the smartphone market is still bleak, the performance of folding screen products has contributed to the bright colors worth looking forward to.

IDC data shows that in the third quarter of 2023, China's folding screen mobile phone market continued its rapid growth trend, with shipments reaching 1.96 million units, a year-on-year increase of 90.4%. In the case that the overall market market has not improved, the performance of the folding screen mobile phone market is undoubtedly eye-catching.

Specific to the manufacturer level, IDC data shows that in the first three quarters of this year, Huawei ranked first in the folding screen market with a market share of 31.7%; OPPO ranked second with a share of 17.9%, of which OPPO ranked first in the whole year (market share of 31.4%) and the quarter (market share of 25.0%) in the vertical folding product market; Samsung, Honor, and Vivo ranked third to fifth, respectively.

Another noteworthy change is Huawei's "return". Through the release of the new Mate 60 series, Huawei's market share continues to rise, and it is gradually approaching the top manufacturers, which will undoubtedly stimulate the motivation of all manufacturers to innovate and make breakthroughs.

After the release of the iPhone15 series, some netizens joked: It feels like Apple has been sanctioned for three years. IDC reported that the market response to the new iPhone 15 series was lower than expected, with more consumer demand skewed towards the iPhone 15 Pro & Max, but it could not be fully met due to supply issues.

"Huawei will also have a catfish effect on the competitive landscape from the second half of the year, and we will see manufacturers more actively expand their product layouts and accelerate the pace of iteration, especially high-end product lines, to stimulate consumers to switch phones and brands," Zhu said. ”

Guo Tianxiang said that due to the intensification of market competition, various manufacturers are actively preparing for a new generation of products, and the follow-up rhythm of new products will be advanced, and the product strength will also be significantly improved. It is expected that the Chinese mobile phone market at the end of the year will enter a moment of contention. In the future, folding screen mobile phones will continue to be the focus of the development of the entire industry, and the implementation of AI technology on the device side will become the most important innovation and upgrade of the next generation of smartphones.