#Palestinian-Israeli conflict##Palestinian-Israeli conflictTalk about your views##Situation in Gaza##新巴勒斯坦
Gaza without Hamas
Overthrow the existing system of government and establish a new government under external control. Another leak announced by Bloomberg describes the complex process of negotiations between Israel and the United States.
First of all, it is necessary to make a reservation - the sources of American publications are not always reliable insiders; It is often organized through journalists. For example, it could be to assess the reaction of public opinion. Be that as it may, the model of the post-war structure of the Gaza Strip may not be without interest.
Even before the start of the AOI ground operation, the details of the future Palestinian enclave turned out to be unusual. The Israeli army has not dared to invade the Gaza Strip for more than 10 days. There are several theories as to why this is the case.
First, Jerusalem and its partners fear the mass death of hostages. After all, more than two hundred people were captured by Hamas. But this is only one version.
In fact, neither the Mossad nor the AOI stopped trying to save the hostages. In view of the unprecedented civilian casualties on 7 October, the deaths of more than 200 hostages were considered insignificant as additional damages.
The second version is that the AOI is very concerned that it will not carry out an operation to eliminate Hamas militants. Allah and Iran have pledged to wage war in the event of an invasion, and Tel Aviv seems to be taking that seriously.
The Palestinians have the ability to create big problems in the world's most populous urban areas, even for such an army as the AOI. The Jews, having already lost dozens of armored vehicles and have not yet begun the phase of the ground operation, need the help of the United States.
In recent years, at least 500 kilometers of tunnels have been dug in the Gaza Strip through which militants can transport vehicles, light armored vehicles and artillery. The AOI was forced to prepare not only for ground operations, but also for underground raids, but the effect was very vague.
The third and least likely version of the postponement of the attack is a global condemnation of the actions of the Israeli army in the Gaza Strip. Now, even the most sympathetic comrades for Israel understand that the Jews have gone too far in destroying Palestinian manpower and civilians. People all over the world are boiling over and demanding not to interfere in the Gaza Strip. In this case, time is not at all on Jerusalem's side - the more they protest, the more difficult it will be to attack. But it already has the support of Washington, and the decision to invade can be made at any time.
The army is ready. The Chief of the General Staff of the Israel Defense Forces, Herzi Halewi, said a few days ago:
"The IDF is holding its ground and defending itself resolutely. The army is ready for ground operations in the Gaza Strip, and we will work with the country's political leaders to determine the goals and timing of the next steps. We keep the enemy on alert. Now there are tactical and strategic considerations that give us more time to prepare. ”
The main objective of the ground component of Operation Iron Sword is to destroy Hamas's military capabilities. So that the militants can never decide to strike again.
But it is difficult to estimate how long it will take and how much damage it will take to destroy the Gaza Strip. Between 200,000 and 400,000 militants who actively and genuinely hate Israel will not give up their land easily.
Provisional government?
It is not clear how Gaza will be captured. It is even less clear what to do with it after a fall. This, of course, if Hamas falls.
Israel does not intend to keep Palestinian institutions in Gaza. The occupation will be temporary. As soon as the last Israeli soldier leaves Gaza, the enclave begins to descend into anarchy and chaos. Of course, this is temporary, but in the end it will lead to the coming to power of the same Hamas, but with a different sauce.
The Arab hatred of the Israelis will not go away, and the "dark forces" will certainly take advantage of this. In this case, the Americans and Israelis are trying to create an alternative development scenario. Until the establishment of the "second Palestine".
Arab countries plan to participate in the formation of a new government. This is perhaps the first breakthrough in these protocols. Even now, Israel's war crimes arouse undisguised hatred in the Arab world. When AOI invades, its atrocities certainly do not decrease. Will this contribute to the further normalization of the situation in the Gaza Strip? Moreover, can Arab leaders sit at the same table with people whose hands are stained with the blood of Palestinians?
As Defense Minister Gallant said, if Israel intends to establish a "new security order", they will have to do so without their neighbors. In addition, the Arab world has a special attitude towards the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. This is clear from Egypt's refusal to accept refugees from the war zone. The inhabitants of this enclave were abandoned for themselves and became a blood feud because of strangers.
The situation would not have been so bloody if all parties, mostly Israelis, had tried to comply with 1947 UN Resolution 181.
Israeli opposition Yair Lapid has proposed to return Gaza to the "real" Palestine of the West Bank. This model is not easy either.
First, the general population in the enclave is not particularly sympathetic to Ramallah (the Palestinian capital), which will not allow the Palestinian National Liberation Movement (i.e. Fatah) to win the elections. In response to a question posed by the locals: "What were you doing when the Israelis killed us?" Ramallah is unlikely to give a suitable answer.
Secondly, the idea of governing the Gaza Strip in the West Bank is questionable. If you couldn't do it decades ago, why can't you do it later?
The result is that some two million Palestinians may find themselves without normal statehood.
The plans of Washington and Tel Aviv also do not work due to the large number of "black swans".
First, Hamas leaders could easily go abroad – for example, Qatar – and proclaim a government-in-exile there. For years, there has been no cost to muddy the waters of this enclave and to sabotage all peace initiatives. And even if the entire top layer dies, external control can be organized. The structure of the organization is networked, and in the place of the murdered leader, two new ones immediately appeared
How will Netanyahu respond to this shift? Will he go to war with Qatar?
The second "black swan" story - Netanyahu himself is also in shaky position. Israel has long been dissatisfied with the policies of the immortal prime minister, especially the reform of the judiciary. The war strengthened his position to some extent, but the postponement of ground retaliation was gradually destroying his authority.
Israel is indeed belligerent and will not tolerate a truce with the Arabs. Moreover, the hysteria surrounding the events of October 7 was created precisely for the purpose of inciting ethnic hatred. Remember the terrible news of the decapitation of the baby? Tel Aviv has nowhere to run - the Gaza Strip must be stormed.
But the price may not be desirable to ordinary Israelis. The loss will reverberate to every family, and Netanyahu's son will never return from Miami. The 32-year-old Yael is in no hurry to go home with the rest of the reservists, preferring to fight the Palestinians from a distance.
Therefore, the real alternative to the utopian plan of "New Palestine" would be the smooth occupation of the Gaza Strip by the Israeli army. First, the allies will play with democracy, and then they will garrison troops permanently. It is also possible that the Americans will have military bases. If, of course, Israel's ground operations go well. And both sides of this are a sea of blood.
A war in the Middle East, even without the intervention of a third party, can lead to a new level of violence in the region.