Today's real estate is really changing! A lot of people have seen house prices loosen and interest rates come down. I began to have the idea of entering the market and buying the bottom. So is the idea right? In fact! Seriously. That's right, it's not right! Yes, the price of the house will be relatively stable in recent years, and the big water release is coming. No, the house may be in the near future hehe! Again, there is really not much time left for Da Ming.
In fact, according to the current real estate market, if you don't hold it down with one hand. Everyone knows what the price of the house is. So, there's no need to ask. As soon as you let go of your hand, you will immediately go to the ball. Let me show you what a thousand miles are! In fact, in other words, even if you have a house in your hand, you know whether the house has a bubble or not. Otherwise! There wouldn't be so many people selling.
So why have house prices stabilized in recent years? Not to be precise. It's about stability. We are facing an economic transformation, before the formal transformation is successful. Real estate is also our pillar industry. So, very clear thing. The pillars cannot fall!
We are now in a stage where the price is guaranteed! During this time period, it is necessary to keep the house price down no matter what. If the intensity of the stimulus is strong, it will continue to skyrocket. Then it's time for the real estate tax to come out. But a big rise is unlikely. Or rather, almost nothing.
Why is there little chance of skyrocketing, or none at all?
What has always kept our house growing at a high rate, is it the price of land? Is it land finance? Not exactly! It is everyone's willingness to buy a house that has always supported the rapid development of the house. It is the millions of loans you get that you get when you walk into the bank with a down payment that have been supporting the development of real estate. To be exact, it was debt that fueled the real estate boom!
So why can't the house sell now? Isn't it because the debt has reached a very high level, and the people can't borrow money? Or what do you think? Wasn't the price of land more expensive in the past than it is now? In the past, the land kings appeared frequently, why did the house sell more and more expensive, and sell faster and faster? In the final analysis, it is our own willingness to buy a house that supports the development of the house.
What now? Our household debt ratio has reached 63 per cent. And what was our resident debt ratio before? It's around 18%! This is the reason why the house can't go up now! It can also be said that the relationship between supply and demand has changed.
But can the house be lowered? Seriously. No! At least not now!
Behind the developer is debt, and the debt is mortgaged by the house. The house was mortgaged to a pawnshop. If the house is worthless overnight, the pawnshop can't stand it, and the economy can't stand it. Therefore, even if you hold on, you have to survive these years! Wait! It is the best way to wait until other industries can support the economy sufficiently, and wait until the economy has successfully transformed.
Seriously, with the current real estate model, we have entered a dead end. The relationship between supply and demand has changed (the demand for housing, we will say improved later)
Demand side:
1. Can't afford it! Don't say anything about whether this sounds good or not, I really can't afford it. For children who have just started working, their income is still in the beginning stage, if their parents can't help much. I really can't afford it.
2. Most people have already bought it. Now there are a few people who don't have a house. But most of these people buy through loans, so there should be no new action to buy a second set in a short period of time.
3. The house is not profitable, so the funds for speculation cannot come in. If you don't make money, who will flip the house? Besides, under the general pattern of housing not speculation, who dares to open this opening.
Supply side:
You have to sell the land, and if you don't sell the land, you won't get any income. So, the house will keep popping up and have an unlimited supply.
According to this model, what if the house can be sold? So, isn't it early to go to the bottom now! And there is no point in buying the bottom at all in the future.
This is also the reason why the real estate tax has been delayed, although it is desperate to get him to provide some of the money. But you can't take him out yet, because once you take it out, you will shoot the house to death. But it will definitely come out. Maybe five years from now? So why five years later? This time node is very powerful, within five years, maybe our economic transformation will be completed.
All right! And so! Now that this demand has become saturated, it can't be sold! Then change the mode! That is, in the future, we will not have the need for a house or not, but the demand for good or not. Now the relationship between supply and demand has changed. This is what everyone often calls the Singapore model! That is, the housing reform that everyone often talks about recently!
We won't talk about the original text, but you can understand it by reading it yourself. It is the model of commercial housing + rental housing. The ancestral house is our current affordable housing. This is the reason why we can call it a new housing reform this time.
In the future, our model will be the commercial housing + affordable housing model. Let the commercial housing return to the attributes of the commodity!
1. There will be more and more affordable housing, and it will be easier and better to apply. But it will also become more and more strict, and the situation that the poor could not live in will basically disappear. Moreover, the original text also said that renovating or acquiring a part of the stock housing as affordable housing to avoid waste. In other words, people who really don't have the strength in the future can live directly in affordable housing. And the environment will be similar to the current house, or almost limited.
Then this will directly impact most of the current houses, because the owners who just need the real estate may have to face the lack of a takeover. Especially if the location is not good and the house is not good, the real estate is just needed.
In the past, we were a commercial housing model, no matter who you are and whether you have money or not. If you don't buy a house, you won't have a place to live, but now you don't need it, rich people are destined to go to high-end communities, and people who don't have money directly guarantee housing. No more desperate savings. Bought a house. Or not so urgently. The sense of happiness exploded directly. Happiness is directly improved!
2. Commercial housing will get better and better, more and more advanced. Meet the need for improvement.
3. Owners who just need real estate will be completely faced with the era of inability to sell, or a big depreciation. This is basically determined, and now under this model, the real estate that is just needed cannot be sold. Not to mention later. Those who don't have money go directly to buy affordable housing, and those who have money go directly to high-end communities. (What kind of houses do we have the most, what kind of homeowners do we have the most.) Hehe! That's right. It is the most real estate just needed).
4. The old dilapidated young man in the core area will be demolished in advance, but can you give you a house at the original address? Your wallet is sturdy enough. Your house has been demolished, but you're going to build a neighborhood that makes you look tall. Do you think you'll just give you a set? Hehe! It really depends on the strength of the wallet.
But! Everyone found a problem. Hush! Say in a small voice: The money you just need is almost earned, and the rich people who have improved are almost meaningful! All right! I don't dare to say more. At the end of the day, it's about selling land. Stabilize land prices and house prices.
Another is the new real estate model. It takes a long time. It takes time to complete. It won't happen in a short time.
It's still the same sentence! The house is not unique. Health, happiness, happiness and hard work are kings!
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