Since the beginning of the 21 st century, Sino-US relations have gradually changed from the coexistence of cooperation and competition to the main tone of all-round contest and competition. At the heart of the problem is that both countries are actively vying for the power to shape and dominate the future world order.
After 40 years of reform and opening up, China has become the world's second largest economy and the largest trading country. China has also made great strides in scientific and technological innovation and military strength. At the same time, the United States remains a leader in many fields such as science and technology and the military, and has consolidated its global influence through the alliance system. The growing power of the two countries has made them more active and assertive in shaping the international order.
Unlike during the Cold War, the rivalry between China and the United States is not only ideological, but also geopolitical and core interests. Among them, the Asia-Pacific region has obviously become the focus of the Sino-US contest. The United States is trying to strengthen its military presence in the Asia-Pacific region through the Indo-Pacific strategy, while China is strengthening regional cooperation through mechanisms such as BRICS and SCO. China and the United States also have essential differences on values such as cyber security and human rights. Both China and the United States are striving to form a political and economic pattern favorable to themselves on a global scale through various means.
IN A SERIES OF SPECIFIC MATTERS, THE DIFFERENCES AND CONFRONTATIONS BETWEEN CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES ARE INCREASINGLY PUBLIC. China and the United States have engaged in multiple rounds of trade debates over trade imbalances and intellectual property protection. In the field of science and technology, China and the United States have launched an all-round crackdown on Chinese high-tech companies such as Huawei. In terms of regional affairs, issues such as Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Xinjiang have become the focus of exchanges between China and the United States. In the field of security, the military deployment rivalry between China and the United States in the South China Sea, the East China Sea, and the Indo-Pacific region has been escalating.
Despite increasingly acute economic and trade frictions, China and the United States have established the world's largest bilateral trade and investment relationship. In 2021, the total trade in goods between China and the United States reached $701.5 billion. China has a huge demand for mechanical and electrical products and agricultural products from the United States. At the same time, China is also an important U.S. energy supplier and a key link in the consumer goods supply chain.
In terms of investment, China and the United States are both the main sources of investment from each other. Chinese companies are also actively investing in the U.S. service sector. The two countries are also important markets for each other's trade in services. The high degree of economic complementarity and intricate ties of interest between China and the United States make it difficult for the two sides to achieve complete "decoupling" in the economic and trade fields.
China and the United States, as the only two major powers in the world with a complete nuclear triad, have outstanding nuclear counterattack capabilities. According to SIPRI, the number of strategic nuclear warheads of the United States and China is about 3750 and 350, respectively. Despite the numerical superiority of the United States, China's nuclear deterrent force is also strong enough to inflict unacceptable damage on the U.S. mainland, and it is difficult to judge whether the two countries' strategic nuclear forces are superior or inferior.
In addition, both China and the United States have made it clear that they will not be the first to use nuclear weapons under any circumstances. This means that either side will be cautious to avoid escalating the confrontation to the point of full-scale nuclear war. The mutual destructiveness of the nuclear forces of China and the United States will have a strong sense of urgency and deterrence for both countries.
If a full-scale military conflict breaks out between China and the United States, the economic and human losses will inevitably be enormous. Both China and the United States are bound to devote all their economic strength to war mobilization, and millions of lives will be sacrificed. At the same time, the war between the world's first and second largest economies is bound to have devastating effects on the global economy.
What is more serious is that in the event of a full-scale conflict, the two sides are likely to fall into an uncontrollable cycle of escalation, or even turn into a nuclear war. The consequences of a nuclear war between China and the United States will affect every corner of the globe and end today's international order and civilizational achievements. The immeasurable consequences of such extreme consequences will prompt both China and the United States to manage the situation cautiously.
To manage differences and avoid conflicts, China and the United States should strengthen high-level strategic communication and dialogue. For example, the two sides can hold regular high-level consultations such as summits and strategic and economic dialogues. This will help the two sides enhance strategic mutual trust and find ways to resolve their differences. China and the United States should also work to explore the establishment of a new type of major-country relationship, which will provide a basic guideline for bilateral relations. In addition, China and the United States should strengthen practical cooperation on global issues such as climate change and counter-terrorism.
In the economic and trade fields, China and the United States should promote practical cooperation to ensure the steady development of bilateral economic and trade relations. The two sides can hold consultations on issues such as intellectual property protection, market opening, and trade deficit, so as to maintain the stability of global industrial and supply chains. In the area of security, China and the United States should strengthen coordination on counter-terrorism and non-proliferation, and work together to maintain international financial stability.
At present, China-US relations are at a critical turning point, and the two sides should proceed from the perspective of a community with a shared future for mankind, seek common ground while reserving differences and achieve win-win cooperation on the basis of mutual respect, so as to make China-US relations a "ballast stone" for global stability. China and the United States should also devote themselves to promoting the process of multipolarization and making it the mainstream of international relations. Finally, China and the United States should become the "twin engines" of global economic growth and the progress of human civilization, and contribute to solving the various global challenges facing mankind.
To sum up, the most important reason why the conflict between China and the United States cannot be fought is that both sides are soberly aware that the costs of war far outweigh any gains. China and the United States should proceed from the overall interests of safeguarding world peace and development, manage differences, enhance cooperation, and promote the building of a new type of major-country relationship.