A certain buddy is about 40 years old, a master in the peerless system, 15 yuan heavy position of 500,000 shares of CNOOC (SH600938), he plans to hold it for 20 years, and then do not sell it to get dividends. What do you think is feasible?
Buddy, explain: Today's high interest rates + high debt + high deficit in the United States are stuck in a death spiral where debt interest crushes fiscal revenue.
I'm also bullish on oil, but what does oil have to do with inflation, as if I heard that when oil rises, it will inflation.
Therefore, buddy said: according to conservative estimates, the first target of gold is less than 2700-3500 US dollars, the price of gold and oil is about 20 in 1980, the oil price is 135-175 US dollars, and the annual profit of CNOOC is more than 400 billion Hong Kong dollars. If India's demand is strong and repeats the gold-oil ratio of 2007 7, the oil price will be 500-700 US dollars a barrel!
I retorted: Of course, CNOOC (SH600938), its performance has shrunk, and its dividends are getting smaller and smaller year by year, and no dividends indicate that there is no confidence in the future. Moreover, there is no support for high oil prices, and the popularity of new energy vehicles is expected to return to 40 yuan in the future, and the stock price will return to less than 10 yuan.
On the one hand, all parties are worried that the expansion of the situation in the Middle East will affect the transportation of crude oil and the normal production of some oil and gas fields, and on the other hand, they are worried about the impact of ZC, the global economic growth rate can not keep up and fall, and the ultra-short-term may fluctuate violently due to changes in the news surface, so operate cautiously. In the near future, it should be dominated by sub-high shocks.
Buddy explained: And a few days ago, CNOOC yesterday triggered a stock price adjustment due to a year-on-year decline of more than 8% in the third quarter, and the lowest fell to 19.41 yuan, which has broken through the 60-day moving average and the lower upper line of the Bollinger Band. It's scary. However, Guotai Junan issued a research report on October 27, maintaining CNOOC's overweight rating with a target price of 27.6 yuan.
However, before the market closed, it closed above the 60-day moving average and the lower upper line of the Bollinger Bands, and today it stopped falling and rising. Anyway, I'm just holding on to it for a long time, so what's the matter if I don't look at it?
I persuaded my buddy: adjustment is to take the initiative to adjust the excessively high technical indicators, and then hit new highs. The adjustment that is completed in one day is what it means, reversing to pick up people! Take those timid investors who are afraid to chase high. Persuade him to be suitable for doing the band.
Dude against: Don't do it! According to the current stock price, if you buy 100,000 shares without moving, the future stock price will reach 128 yuan, and your profit + annual dividends will be tens of millions, if you can play T+0, then you will be a billionaire, how many people's dreams!
Moreover, if you want to increase financing and leverage, then you are Xu Jiayin's worth of billions when he was young when he started a business, let us firmly believe that it will be possible!
Dude laughs haha: Crude oil rose again last night, see who else wants to ship today, remind the shipper to ship at the current price, it will be difficult to buy it back at the original price in the future!
And, after all, it's a resource stock, with so many oil and gas fields discovered, and production is growing at a rate of 9% per year. The world war is still difficult to subside, and crude oil will fluctuate and climb at a high level.
His high dividends are also very attractive. He is the best in the central enterprises.
What do you think?