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Introduction:
Back in time to the end of July 2023, an unusual event occurred over Moscow. Several drones came uninvited and broke into Moscow's air defense network, and although most of them were successfully shot down, one of them unfortunately crashed into a commercial building, causing considerable damage. The Russians, on the other hand, took it in their stride, saying that such drone strikes were commonplace and countermeasures were commonplace. However, this incident reveals a new pattern of warfare, that is, low-end, cheap drones are counterattacking, which has caused deep thinking. What is the value of low-cost drones? Let's dive into this question.
Body:
In the wake of this shocking incident, people began to re-examine the value of low-end cheap drones. To be clear, the low-end drones mentioned here include a wide range and even include some modified military drones used in everyday life. Take the US MQ-9 UAV as an example, it is not a low-end cheap UAV, because its manufacturing cost is as high as $32 million, and its price once exceeded $100 million, equivalent to the cost of a J-20 stealth fighter. As you can imagine, the damage caused by a drone of such great value in adverse weather or shot down by an enemy is enormous.
In stark contrast, low-end drones typically cost between a few thousand dollars and tens of thousands of dollars to manufacture and are relatively small, but can create effects that far exceed their value. For example, the drones that hit Russia could be worth only a few thousand dollars each, or even a few hundred dollars. Under Moscow's air defense network, the appearance of drones has put Russia in a difficult position. If a counterattack is chosen, each anti-aircraft missile can cost hundreds of thousands of dollars, clearly out of proportion to the value of the UAV. But if no action is taken, these drones will strike suicidally, causing incalculable loss of life and property. Since August 2023, more than 120 drone strikes have occurred in Russia, in the Crimea region, and in Russian-controlled areas on the front lines of the conflict, according to Russian media. The main targets of these drones are Russian-controlled shopping malls, airports and oil facilities, and whether they are successfully intercepted or not, once these drones appear, it is still Russia that will ultimately suffer.
More worryingly, low-end cheap UAVs are smaller in size, and the probability of successful interception is not ideal. Once such drones break through air defense networks and carry out suicide attacks, the impact on Russian oil facilities will be immeasurable. This phenomenon has changed the pattern of the conflict in Ukraine to some extent. As Chinese military commentator Song Zhongping believes, Ukraine's frequent use of drones to harass the Russian capital has opened up a new pattern of unfavorable warfare. Such drone raids are difficult to guard against, and combined with their low price, they may be widely used in future warfare.
Another worrying factor is that the drones that hit Moscow appear to have taken off from the local area and have a strong burst. Attacks on civilian facilities in Moscow amount to terrorist attacks, but such attacks often struggle to leave sufficient evidence. This raises a thought-provoking question: If Ukraine sets this precedent, will there be more and more undetectable terrorist attacks in the future? Has this contributed to some extent the arrogance of some terrorists?
Of course, at present, human UAV technology is not very mature, and there will be UAV swarm warfare in the future, thereby greatly improving the breakthrough ability of air defense systems. At that moment, whether it is Aegis or Aegis combat systems, it will be incapable in the face of such a scale of swarm attacks.
Since drones are so practical, both Russia and Ukraine are actively throwing them into the battlefield, which will inevitably lead to other countries following suit. At this point, Russia is obviously at a disadvantage, because its local military-industrial composite UAV industry chain is not developed enough, although it has increased investment, but it will take time to put UAVs into the front line on a large scale. And Ukraine back
Later, there is the support of NATO countries led by the United States, especially the United States, which has the world's largest drone market. With the United States constantly pouring money and resources into the field of research and development of UAVs, Ukraine's competitive advantage in the field of UAVs is obvious.
What is especially surprising is that until now, low-end cheap drones have become the protagonists. This coincides with the original intention of the Americans, after all, the cost of such UAVs is much lower than missiles and aircraft. This trend is indeed in line with the perspective of economic efficiency and strategic value, but it also raises a new set of questions.
However, do we have enough means to deal with this new pattern of war? For countering drone suicide attacks, the existing means are not very mature, and their effectiveness is still controversial. As a novel tactical weapon, laser weapons have attracted much attention and have strong air defense capabilities, especially against small aircraft. One of the characteristics of laser weapons is that they are extremely fast, not only capable of shooting down drones in the air, but also intercepting incoming missiles in specific situations. At the same time, laser weapons are cheap and may cost only a few thousand dollars a shot, and are even expected to drop to several hundred dollars. However, the current limitation is equally obvious, laser weapons often require a high-power power supply when fired, which may make them less suitable in some cases. In addition, under certain weather conditions, such as smog or other extreme weather, the effectiveness of laser weapons may be affected. Therefore, current laser weapons are not suitable for all terrain and environments.
Weapons such as electromagnetic guns are also seen as effective means of dealing with drones, but their application is also somewhat limited. Electromagnetic guns require a large power supply, so mobility on the battlefield is limited. However, as technology advances, these limitations are expected to gradually decrease.
In addition, the research and development of miniature high-energy batteries is also underway, which will provide more power sources for new weapons such as laser weapons once the technology matures. This will dramatically change the landscape of future battles.
To sum up, low-end cheap drones have emerged in modern warfare, raising new challenges and opportunities. While our countermeasures are not yet mature, advances in technology will continue to open up new ways for us to better address this threat. In the future, we need to continue to pay attention to the development of drone technology and continuously improve our defense and countermeasures to ensure that we can safeguard the security and interests of the country. This new war is constantly evolving, and we need to be prepared to meet the challenges ahead.
Revelation:
At the end of July 2023, Moscow was hit by a drone attack, an incident that revealed the potential value of low-end cheap drones in modern warfare. From this, we can draw the following lessons.
First of all, low-end UAVs have become the protagonists on the battlefield. Compared with high-value drones, low-end cheap drones have a much lower cost, but they can cause immeasurable loss of life and property. This provides an affordable tactic for the state and the military, but also makes it a potential threat.
Second, breakthroughs in drone technology and increased frequency of use could trigger other countries to follow suit. Ukraine's successful harassment campaign in the field of drones has already made other countries think about how to deal with this threat. This may lead to more countries investing in the research and development and use of drone technology, intensifying international strategic competition.
In addition, the means of defense against drone strikes need to be constantly improved. Existing countermeasures, such as laser weapons and electromagnetic cannons, are effective, but in some cases remain limited. Future developments could include miniature high-energy batteries and smarter countermeasures to improve air defense.
Summary:
The Moscow drone strike at the end of July 2023 triggered a profound rethinking of modern warfare and drone technology. This incident revealed the potential threat and value of low-end cheap drones, and brought some important enlightenment to the international military landscape.
First of all, low-end UAVs have emerged as a major player in modern warfare. They cost less than high-value drones, but are capable of inflicting heavy damage on the enemy. This makes drones an affordable tactical option, but it also serves as a reminder that militaries need to take this threat seriously and strengthen their defense and countermeasures capabilities.
Secondly, Ukraine's successful use of drones to harass the Russian capital provides an example for other countries. This could trigger other countries to follow suit, intensifying international strategic competition. In the future, drone technology will play an increasingly important role on the battlefield, and countries need to pay close attention to this trend.
In addition, existing countermeasures need to be continuously improved. Technologies such as laser weapons and electromagnetic guns, while effective, have limitations in some cases. Future developments could include smarter countermeasures systems and miniature high-energy batteries to improve defenses against drone attacks. Continuous investment and research and development is necessary to ensure the security and combat effectiveness of the country.
Taken together, the Moscow drone strike reveals new threats and opportunities in modern warfare. Countries should strengthen cooperation and study and share countermeasures to maintain international peace and security. At the same time, the development of UAV technology will continue to profoundly affect international relations and the international security pattern, which requires careful response.
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