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Since anonymous U.S. officials broke the news, the United States has sent warnings to Iran and the Lebanese Allah through pro-American countries such as Qatar, suggesting that the United States may resort to force if the situation escalates. However, at present, the US military has deployed two aircraft carrier battle groups in the Middle East, including two nuclear aircraft carriers, two missile cruisers and five missile destroyers. Nearly 2,000 U.S. Marines are also said to be on standby.
While the U.S. military may plan to rely on airstrikes and special forces intervention to prevent Iranian allies such as the Lebanese Allah Party, the lessons of Afghanistan suggest that airstrikes alone are not the answer.
The problem for the U.S. military at this stage is that it may be difficult for them to assemble more mobile forces to deal with the escalating Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and even if the conflict is inevitable, the political reality in the United States does not allow Biden to act rashly.
The situation is exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, where the Ukrainian army has consumed most of the equipment and ammunition stocks of the US military and other NATO members, while the US military and its allies have been unable to fill this critical gap in a short period of time.
Unlike the Soviet Union's firepower warfare thinking, Western military concepts have not prioritized large-scale bomb preparedness since the Cold War. After the Cold War, defense budget cuts brought equipment and ammunition production capacity and stockpiles to new lows.
The bloody battle of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict cost off equipment and ammunition, and now the United States and even the entire West are in crisis in their arsenal and ammunition stockpiles. The most ironic thing is that on the eve of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the United States asked Israel for help, hoping that the latter would provide ammunition support for Ukraine.
This equipment and ammunition crisis has plagued the U.S. military in general, especially the U.S. Navy's carrier battle groups. Based on the current maintenance status of naval equipment, the author speculates that the US military may not be able to send another aircraft carrier battle group to support the Middle East without changing the existing deployment pattern.
In addition, according to Bloomberg, news came out from the US Central Theater Command that the middle and lower levels of the US military are generally unwilling to get involved in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and the situation has become so serious that high-level generals have met to discuss the issue of military stability. Although I personally have reservations about this news, given Bloomberg's credibility in the US domestic affairs revelations, this news may not be nonsense.
Recently, the widely circulated video of Putin warning the US military not to intervene in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has been falsified, but the threat of the Russian-Iranian alliance to the US military is real. Russia and Iran cannot be ignored, and even the seemingly weak organization of the Lebanese Allah Party is equipped with anti-ship missiles that can threaten US aircraft carriers. Moreover, do not forget that the Russian Navy still harbors experience in sinking capital ships with anti-ship missiles.
Both Israel and the United States must be tough, knowing that head-to-head confrontation with the Iranian alliance will come at a heavy cost. Because once you show weakness, you will have to face endless troubles. Moreover, if Biden cannot stabilize the situation in the United States, the situation will become even more confusing.
The report pointed out that the successive votes of the speaker of the US House of Representatives not only exposed the dereliction of duty in organizing the vote, but also reflected the division within the Republican Party. The lack of consensus among Republican representatives and the lack of leaders to unite lawmakers is a crisis not only for the Republican Party, but also for the Democratic Party.
Legally, parliamentarians are accountable to voters rather than partisan, but links between parties and parliamentarians are strengthened when both parties share the same ideals and the partisan support at the time of the election. However, inconsistencies within the Republican Party make it difficult to build consensus, after all, it will be difficult to achieve substantive results if consensus is based solely on opposition.
Republican divisions also mean that Congress will need to work harder than ever to reach consensus. This may not be as practical for Democrats as it would be for Republicans to win outright midterm elections. However, along with the disunity within the Republican Party, it has also caused great difficulties for Biden to seek congressional support on Israel. How to break the ice? Where will the development of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict go? This is a high-profile issue that we need to continue to pay attention to.
At this challenging and uncertain time, the United States has to tread carefully to ensure that its interests are not seriously undermined. Faced with such a complex situation, the U.S. government needs to carefully weigh the pros and cons, while also considering working with allies to find possible solutions.
In general, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is not only a regional contradiction, but also reflects the complexity and multi-layered nature of international politics. In this process, all parties need to remain calm and rational and resolve their differences through dialogue and cooperation, so as to safeguard the overall situation of regional peace and stability.
No matter how the situation evolves, we hope that all parties will work together in accordance with the principles of peace, justice and fairness to work together to build a harmonious and stable Middle East region.
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