The World Cup, a quadrennial event, kicks off in Qatar. FIFA President Giannino and IOC President Bach called on countries to take a one-month truce during the World Cup at the G20 summit, in line with the resolution of the Olympic Truce adopted by the United Nations 29 years ago. During the last World Cup, Syria declared a brief ceasefire. Regrettably, however, the opening of this World Cup coincides with renewed conflict in the Middle East. The Kurds, as U.S. allies in the region, are located inside Iraq and have become important targets and bases for conflict. In less than 24 hours, it was hit by Turkish and Iranian airstrikes, respectively.
Turkey claims that according to the confessions of suspects who have been detained, Kurdish forces are behind the terrorist attack on Istanbul's pedestrian street in recent days. The right to self-defence is allowed under Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, whereby Turkey has acquired the right to self-defence against Kurdish forces. As a result, the Turkish army launched an operation called "Sharp Claw-Sword", which simultaneously bombed Kurdish armed agglomerations in northern Iraq and northern Syria, destroying 89 targets in one fell swoop. At the same time, Iran also attacked the headquarters of Iran's Kurdish opposition party on the outskirts of Erbil, Iraq. So why are these two countries risking international pressure to launch air strikes against Kurdish forces in the run-up to the World Cup?
First, according to Clausewitzian understanding, there is only one reason for the armistice, that is, the party to the armistice believes that continuing to fight will help better prepare for future wars, thus putting it in a better position in future engagements. The side forced to truce may no longer have enough strength to deal with the conflict, so a truce is the best option. Turkey and Iran are both powerhouses in the Middle East and are well placed to have the capacity and resources to continue to weaken the Kurdish opposition. The sooner they act, the more limited the Kurdish opposition will be able to survive and the longer the road to regaining strength will be. Therefore, a truce is not in the interest of the two countries having the initiative. In addition, the two countries are also cooperating in the Astana process against the Kurdish issue, so this joint action may be the result of their coordination.
Second, since the United States began to implement strategic contraction in the Middle East, the influence of regional powers such as Turkey, Iran, and Saudi Arabia has expanded rapidly. To some extent, it fills the strategic contraction and power gap in the Middle East. These regional powers want more dominance in regional affairs. According to the recently released U.S. National Security Strategy report, the United States has once again reduced the importance of the Middle East in its national security strategy in order to respond more effectively to the challenges from China and Russia. This suggests that the United States wants a fuller exit from the Middle East. In this case, the Kurds could be further abandoned by the United States. To reverse this unfavorable situation, the Kurds may take a series of radical moves to expand their influence to attract the attention of the United States. Therefore, Turkey and Iran took swift action against Kurdish forces in order to stop the radicalization in the shortest possible time. Moreover, whether or not the Kurdish attacks were directed by the United States, the blows by both countries to the Kurdistan region deepened their conflict with the United States.
Finally, given the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, the two countries may have some lingering effects on proxy wars. The desperate fight against Kurdish forces is a repeated declaration emphasized by the United States that the power structure in the Middle East does not allow Kurdish forces to exist. If the United States continues to support Kurdish forces to establish proxy regimes in the Middle East, it will be opposed by all regional powers. In the context of the World Cup, despite ceasefires in many parts of the world, the bombing campaign by Turkey and Iran in the Kurdish region is remarkable. This will help the two countries better send a message to the United States that Kurdish forces are not tolerated by power structures in the Middle East. Therefore, although it appears to be a military operation, it actually involves the transmission of political signals.