Market tracker Counterpoint Research estimates that sales of Apple's flagship phone in the 17 days after launch are down 4.5 percent compared to the iPhone 14. This may be one of the worst iPhone debuts in China since around 2018. Analysts at financial services firm Jefferies estimate that Huawei's overall sales in China surpassed Apple's, driven by the unexpected debut of the Mate 60 Pro.
Apple's new iPhones are not selling as well in China as their predecessors because of the rise of competitors such as Huawei and weak demand. Device sales from Huawei, Xiaomi and Honor grew year-on-year, while Apple's iPhone saw a sharp double-digit decline. Since the launch of the iPhone 15 series, its year-on-year sales growth has been negative. Therefore, Huawei has surpassed Apple and occupied the first position in the market share. Analysts believe that this trend indicates that the iPhone will "lose" to Huawei next year, and weak Chinese demand will lead to lower than expected global shipments of the iPhone 15.
Counterpoint estimates that Huawei Mate 60 Pro sales may be 5 million to 6 million units this year, and may reach tens of millions in 2024. That could hit Apple as it faces its weakest demand for smartphones in a decade. If the estimate is accurate, this would be one of the worst iPhone debuts in China since around 2018. At that time, local brands such as OPPO and vivo began to attract Asian consumers.
On October 16, Apple shares closed flat. Morgan Stanley analysts lowered Apple's target price from $215 to $210 in a report on the 16th, as supply faced "headwinds" and was more cautious about fourth-quarter results. We also cut our iPhone sales forecast for the quarter by 8%.
Counterpoint said that in the United States, sales of the iPhone 15 series in the first 9 days may increase by double digits compared with the previous generation. Jeff Fieldhack, research director at Counterpoint, said: "The US (market) is hot right now, and the new iPhones have performed well for several weekends in a row. "This is a positive signal from the world's largest iPhone market." So it will certainly mitigate some of the impact of the Chinese data. ”