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2022, a turbulent year, also marked the year in which global peace was most threatened since the end of the Cold War. The haze of the new crown epidemic has not yet dissipated, and in Eastern Europe, the drums of the Russian-Ukrainian war have sounded, and Russia has invested huge amounts of money and human resources, but has failed to achieve the set goals, but has fallen into geopolitical difficulties.
On the other hand, China in the Pacific also faces challenges. The United States announced arms sales to Taiwan again in July this year, and the US Navy frequently violated the territorial waters of the South China Sea. At the same time, Japan and Australia have also beefed up their armaments this year, vowing to intervene in the situation in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. Both China and Russia face challenges led by the West, especially the United States, and this competition is unprecedented in intensity and directly affects the core interests of both countries.
First, let's review the predicament Russia faces. Since the beginning of the Cold War, Russia has been in competition with the Western world, led by the United States. Western countries have always been worried about the military power of the Soviet Union and Russia, so NATO was formed to deal with potential threats. This rivalry was reflected in a series of Berlin crises and military exercises that culminated in the collapse of the Soviet Union and the change of course of Eastern European countries.
However, the collapse of the Soviet Union did not mean the end of the conflict with the West, which is still uneasy about Russia's military power. In particular, those Eastern European countries that were once in the Soviet Union's sphere of influence joined NATO, extending NATO's influence to the Baltic states, Poland and the Balkans. In addition, since the 80s of the 20th century, the EU has expanded the scope of its neighboring countries through "European union", further weakening Russia's influence in Eastern European countries.
While EU countries have reached an agreement with Russia on energy and mineral deals, Russia's relations with the West deteriorated sharply after the outbreak of the Crimea issue in 2014. Western countries have imposed extensive sanctions on Russia, covering a wide range of fields such as military, industrial, agricultural, energy and financial. Russian merchant ships were seized, foreign exchange assets were frozen, and goods from Japan, Germany, France and the United States were no longer imported.
On the military front, the West supports Ukraine, providing a lot of weapons and equipment and monetary assistance. NATO has conducted several military exercises in the Baltic region to put pressure on Russia, and the US military has also stepped up reconnaissance and patrolling of the Russian border strip. Even countries that were once close to Russia, such as Hungary, Greece, Moldova, as well as Germany and France, have been hit, and Russia's soft power in Western Europe has plummeted.
In addition, Sweden and Finland abandoned their long-held policy of neutrality and applied to join NATO, making Russia's security situation in the northern regions more serious. NATO countries have also imposed a blockade of the Kaliningrad enclave, limiting Russia's access to the sea in the Baltic Sea. Russia in the Black Sea direction is also difficult to navigate freely due to Turkey's control of the Bosphorus.
In the face of a series of provocations by Western countries, Russia's surrounding environment and economic development have been seriously affected, so how to deal with relations with Western countries has become the primary issue that Russia urgently needs to solve.
However, China also faces external challenges. Since the beginning of the 21st century, China's military and economic strength has been increasing
4. Pay equal attention to cooperation and confrontation
In response to provocations by Western countries, China and Russia can adopt a strategy of equal emphasis on cooperation and confrontation.
First, the two sides can deepen cooperation in various fields, especially in the economic field. China and Russia have large markets, and by strengthening bilateral trade and investment, they can reduce their dependence on Western markets and reduce economic risks. The two sides can also explore new areas of cooperation, such as scientific and technological innovation and energy resource development, to promote common development.
In addition, China and Russia can strengthen military cooperation and jointly address the challenges of Western countries in the military field. Joint military exercises and technical cooperation can enhance the military strength of both sides, enhance deterrence, and reduce the possibility of adventurous behavior by Western countries.
However, cooperation does not mean abandoning confrontation. China and Russia need to maintain a firm stance and not tolerate any infringement of their core interests. In the face of provocations by Western countries, it is necessary to take resolute countermeasures to safeguard the dignity and security of the country.
In the international arena, China and Russia can strengthen coordination and jointly defend multilateralism and the international rule of law. Through cooperation with other developing countries, a stronger multipolar world power will be formed, and the unilateral space for action of Western countries will be reduced.
At the same time, China and Russia can strengthen diplomatic mediation, promote the resolution of international hotspot issues, and reduce tensions. Through diplomatic means, we should win the understanding and support of the international community and reduce the risk of confrontation with Western countries.
5. Wisdom and restraint
In the face of challenges from Western countries, China and Russia need to show wisdom and restraint. Wisdom is reflected in the accurate analysis of the international situation and the formulation of response strategies. Both sides need to delve into the intentions and actions of Western countries to understand the motives and interests behind their provocations. Only by accurately grasping the situation can we formulate effective countermeasures.
Restraint means not acting rashly and not escalating tensions. China and Russia need to refrain from drastic actions and provocations, while maintaining sufficient military and diplomatic readiness to deal with a possible conflict. Restraint also includes avoiding extreme rhetoric and behavior to reduce the risk of escalation of tensions.
6. Domestic stability and reform
In the face of external challenges, China and Russia need to maintain domestic political stability and social harmony. Civil unrest and social instability weaken national resistance and allow international adversaries to see opportunities. Therefore, China and Russia need to strengthen domestic governance, improve government effectiveness, meet the basic needs of the people, and ensure social stability.
At the same time, China and Russia also need to carry out the necessary reforms to improve the competitiveness and innovation of the economy. Through reform, optimize the industrial structure, improve production efficiency, reduce external dependence, and increase the country's resilience.
Finally, China and Russia can win the support of the international community through diplomatic means. Through effective diplomatic propaganda, we will convey the positions and concepts of China and Russia to the international community and win the understanding and support of the international community. At the same time, it actively participates in international organizations and mechanisms to maintain international peace and security and safeguard its legitimate rights and interests.
To sum up, when facing the challenges of Western countries, China and Russia need to adopt a strategy of equal emphasis on cooperation and confrontation, maintain wisdom and restraint, ensure domestic stability and reform, and win the support of the international community. Only in this way can we meet the challenges from the Western world and safeguard the interests and dignity of the country.
2012 was a year of unevent, and it was also the year in which global peace was most threatened since the end of the Cold War. In this year, the haze of the new crown epidemic has not yet dissipated, the Russian-Ukrainian war has begun on the land of Eastern Europe, Russia has paid a lot of money and personnel consumption, but has not completed the set goal, and its geopolitical ring has become worse and worse. And China on the west coast of the Pacific is also facing challenges.
In July this year, the United States announced arms sales to Taiwan again, and the US Navy increased the frequency of illegal intrusions into the South China Sea. Japan and Australia have also expanded their armaments this year and have expressed their intention to intervene in the situation in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. China and Russia face a common dilemma, which is the challenge from the Western world, led by the United States, and this competition is more intense than ever, and it concerns the core interests of both countries. So, how can China and Russia, in the face of provocations from the Western world, preemptively strike and not give their opponents a chance?
1 The conundrum facing Russia
First, let's look at the situation in Russia. Since the beginning of the Cold War, Moscow has been in a state of competition with the Western world, led by the United States. The Western world, worried about the military power of the USSR and Russia, formed NATO and was always ready to fight Russia. This rivalry was reflected in a series of Berlin crises and military exercises during the Cold War, which ended with the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 90s and the change of flag of Eastern European countries.
But the disappearance of the USSR did not mean the complete end of the conflict between the West and Moscow. Russia's military power still makes the West less comfortable, especially those Eastern European countries that were part of Moscow's sphere of influence during the Cold War. He joined NATO in the 90s and the first decade of the 21st century. This allowed NATO's armed forces to advance to the Baltic states, Poland and the entire Balkans.
Since the 80s, the European Union, under the banner of "European unity", has also included many countries around Russia, further decoupling Eastern European countries from Russia economically and politically. Russia's influence in Eastern European countries is gradually weakening. Although EU countries have previously struck deals with Russia for Russian gas, oil and minerals.
Although Putin finally resolved the issue of ballistic missile and anti-missile weapons deployment with NATO through extensive negotiations with the United States before 2012, he made a commitment to orderly reduction in nuclear weapons and armaments and not engage in an arms race. However, after the entry of Crimea into Russia in 2014 and the change in the situation in Ukraine, Russia's fragile relationship with the West was declared bankrupt, and after Russia launched a special military operation this year, Russia and the West have basically lost the possibility of easing contradictions.
This means that the West will impose sanctions on Russia without scruples, and the scope of sanctions, which is larger than the 2014 Ukrainian crisis, covers Russia's military, industry, agriculture, energy, finance and other aspects. Economically, Russian merchant ships have been repeatedly detained and inspected by Western countries. EU countries, Japan and South Korea have also reduced or even completely cut off energy trade with Russia. Russia was also kicked out of the dollar trading system, defaulted on its foreign debt, and froze its foreign exchange assets.
Not only that, machine tools, auto parts, precision instruments, medical and mechanical equipment from Japan, Germany, France and the United States are no longer flowing in. Militarily, the West came to the aid of Ukraine, providing a large amount of NATO-standard equipment, money and combatants. NATO is also in May and June of this year
4. Cooperation and challenges between China and Russia
While China and Russia have much in common in the face of Western challenges, there are also some cooperation and challenges that need to be overcome together.
First, one of the potential challenges of Sino-Russian cooperation is the differences in their respective domestic political and economic systems. China has adopted a socialist market economy with a one-party political system, while Russia has adopted a semi-presidential system with a relatively complex political system. These differences can lead to some friction and disagreement in cooperation.
Another challenge is the asymmetry between the two countries. China is the world's second-largest economy and has the world's largest population, while Russia is relatively small. This asymmetry can raise problems in cooperation, such as trade balance in economic exchanges or resource allocation in military cooperation.
However, these challenges are not insurmountable. China and Russia can resolve potential problems by building stronger mutual trust mechanisms, strengthening high-level diplomatic dialogue, and resolving potential problems through mutual respect and reasonable negotiations. The two countries can work together to ensure that their cooperation is equal and mutually beneficial.
5. Summary
2022 has been a challenging year, and it is especially important for China and Russia to face the challenges of the Western world. Russia faces challenges from Western countries led by the United States, while China also faces economic and military challenges from countries such as the United States.
China and Russia need to adopt different strategies in addressing these challenges. Russia should focus on ending the conflict in Ukraine to ease Western sanctions pressure and take decisive action on domestic and foreign deployments to ensure its own security. China should continue to strengthen its national defense, strengthen cooperation with neighboring countries, and establish a strategic mutual trust mechanism with Western countries to avoid miscalculation and escalation of conflicts.
The two countries can also strengthen cooperation and common development to become stronger in the face of Western challenges. While there are potential challenges, such as political systems and economic asymmetries, they can be overcome by building stronger mechanisms of mutual trust and respect.
In the face of the encirclement and provocation of the Western world, China and Russia must not bow their heads and must safeguard their own interests and security. Through cooperation and a firm stance, they can jointly confront this complex international situation and ensure that their rights and interests are not violated. China and Russia will continue to play an important role in the international arena and safeguard global peace and stability.
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