It's so cool! Eat big meat! The medical biology of the key layout of the middle line has risen sharply across the board one after another, and has come out of the domineering of the bottom reversal!
1. Medical biology has soared, will there be a more violent blowout next? Is it still a chance to get on the bus now?
2. The performance of the stock index is average, while the medical biology is bucking the trend and soaring, technology comes to assist, and the performance of large consumption is flat, what is the signal? What kind of market logic does it reflect?
3. The market style is quietly changing, and the wrong main line will be accidentally nothing, now it is not too late to know, today to show you a clear way, come and think about it!
1. Analysis of medical biological market
Medical biology has risen sharply across the board, and many people feel incredible, how can they suddenly buckle the trend and strengthen? You know, the broader market has been pulling back recently.
Old friends should not be surprised at all, in September I clearly emphasized that I am particularly optimistic about the October market of medical biology, and give a forecast of the monthly closing in October. Now, the prediction is likely to come true!
2023.9.22, clearly pointed out: the medical outbreak rebounded in October!
All friends who read my article, I want to remind you that you can oppose me as a person, but for the opportunities and risks of the industry sector I prompted, you must pay great attention to it, because this is my strength!
Let's recall, did the media, communications, and SSE 50 with heavy positions in October last year all rise sharply? The highest point of insurance and securities rise in May this year prompted the risk of pullback in time, the risk of a peak plunge in big technology in June, the risk of a sharp fall in real estate and the opportunity to escape in August, and the adjustment risk and high selling opportunity of gold and coal in September.
You can look back at the article at that time, they are still there. Not deliberately bragging about how good I am (I will also make a lot of mistakes, it is impossible to be correct every time, especially the short-term trend, it is difficult to be accurate, but the research and judgment of the mid-line market I am still very confident), but I hope that everyone will find my logic and perspective from those articles that analyze and judge the market, and improve myself through comparison, which is meaningful. (These classic analysis articles are links, I will add to the content later, everyone has time to take a look!) ）
To get back to business, there are four major logics of medical biology market:
1. The fundamentals are solid, the growth potential is huge, and the industry has entered a period of accelerated development.
Centralized procurement and the hype of the epidemic concept have made medical treatment fall miserably in the past two years, but the social rigid demand attribute determines that the medical industry has unparalleled certainty, which is not comparable even to liquor.
The accelerated arrival of an aging society has promoted the accelerated development of the medical industry; With the continuous development of the economy and society, the continuous improvement of residents' health concepts, the long-term rise in disposable income, and the rise in medical expenditure.
It is foreseeable that in the next 5-20 years, medical health will become the focus of social attention. How can an industry that is related to people's lives and health and sustainable economic development continue to languish?
2. Seriously oversold and undervalued, valuation repair is imperative.
Medical and biological plunged more than 60%, the PB valuation corresponding to this wave of lows is cheaper than 99% of the time in history, the monthly KDJ hit the highest over-fall in history, centralized procurement, pharmaceutical anti-corruption, the epidemic subsided and other benefits are exhausted, after the industry reshuffle is over, the market regains confidence, pharmaceutical and medical will become the key industry of the main institutions competing for allocation, institutional rush will appear, valuation repair is imperative.
Recently, medicine, medical treatment, and biology have begun to increase the volume at the bottom and have been active repeatedly, indicating that the main funds have begun to enter the market gradually. As for whether there will be an ultimate bottom here, I can't give a definitive answer, because it's not a human thing. What I can be sure of is that medical biology is a historic big bottom area, an excellent medium and long-term investment layout opportunity, seemingly rebounding more than 10 points, but in fact it is still at the big bottom. There are twists and turns in the short term, the middle line is not pessimistic, and the long term will rise sharply, I have no doubt about this.
3. It is currently in the bottoming period, and there is an expectation of a band rebound.
The monthly line is seriously oversold, the weekly line is seriously oversold and the bottom divergence, the weekly and daily MACD/KDJ double golden cross upward, technical support out of a wave of weekly level market tendency.
4. When optimistic about the medium and long-term market, keep a calm, and move steadily to achieve long-term results.
Although I am strongly optimistic about the medium and long-term investment layout opportunities in the medical biotechnology sector, I still need to maintain a calm in the investment of total positions and the rhythm of entry. After all, now A shares are not a bull market, the market is not comprehensively strengthened, the international political and economic situation will not be a "moth" has to guard against a hand, at every turn full of gambling reversal, this is a very irrational trading bad habit, stability can go far.
Medical biology bottom big reversal, which subdivision track can play the best?
My favor is precision medicine for three reasons:
First, the industry covers a wide range. Chemical drugs, biology, innovative drugs, CXO/CRO and other subdivision track leaders are all its component stocks, precision medicine includes the entire health track except traditional Chinese medicine, and the allocation of precision medicine is equivalent to the allocation of the entire health industry.
Second, the proportion of component equity is balanced.
Comparing precision medicine and CSI Medical, it will be found that the top 3 heavy stocks of CSI Medical account for too high a proportion, while precision medicine is more balanced, and the sector index can better reflect the entire track market, while CSI Medical is greatly affected by the top 3 weighted stocks.
Third, it is more offensive. Judging from the recent performance, every time the medicine and medical rebound, precision medicine is the most able to rise, leading the entire track.
When precision medicine pulled back yesterday, it was clearly emphasized that "this wave of rebound is not yet in place, and the pullback is an opportunity", and today it rose sharply. The bottom is like this, intermittently rising, oscillating higher.
This wave of rebound has a greater probability of impacting the annual pressure level, and there is still a better rebound space behind, and it will continue to hold still. But after today's big rally, it's not particularly good to chase after it here. The blue line is the resonance pressure level of the left high and the half-year line, here are several trading days of capital release escape, objectively there is pressure, the ideal trend is to step back on the 60-day moving average again, after consolidation, to break through the half-year line pressure in one fell swoop, start the journey of impacting the annual line.
Here are the entry tips for medium and long-term layout and band operation:
In the medium and long-term layout, I buy more and more the fall, in order to buy at a lower price, so as to reduce the cost of holding positions.
Swing operation, I wait for the trend reversal confirmation to enter the market, in order to increase the certainty and success rate, to avoid repeated bottoming and repeated stop loss. After the situation reverses, stepping back is a low sucking opportunity, and after the reversal, the continuity and aggressiveness of the market are much higher than the bottoming period.
Second, gold, coal, and liquor continue to weaken, while medicine and medical care are bucking the trend, what is the signal?
The weakening of high sectors such as liquor, coal, and gold, and the strengthening of the low sectors of medicine and medical care reflect that the market is trying to switch between high and low, and the main force is digging valuation depressions and making medium and long-term allocation, which is a very important signal! When more and more funds enter the market for medium and long-term allocation, then the market will gradually usher in a turnaround.
Understanding the main trends, the next investment strategy is clear: follow the main forces of the market, grasp the long-term layout opportunities of medical biology, be optimistic about the band of data and computing power in the technology sector, and avoid the risk of killing and falling in high-valuation sectors.
This is my trading ideas for the next two or three months, if you have better trading ideas, you can communicate together.
What do you think about the next market? Welcome to discuss. Vision is more important than the candlestick, and it is more essential than the ups and downs! Insight into the stock market puzzle, insight into industry trends, grasp investment opportunities, be a clear person in the stock market, and make a clear investment! Maybe a few attention can change your financial fortune!
Finally, please give a thumbs up and give an encouragement and support, thank you very much!
The above content is only a personal opinion and is not instructive. The mention of individual stock funds is only to record market views and real operation processes, and to accumulate materials for future creation, and is not a public recommendation. The past performance of the fund is not indicative of the future, and investors should pay attention to the risk of market fluctuations.