The old house is delicious again? The "new round of shed reform" is coming, and house prices may rise

As I mentioned earlier, as early as three months ago, the mainland issued a blockbuster document:

"Guiding Opinions on Actively and Steadily Promoting the Transformation of Urban Villages in Megacities". On the surface, the document does not mention the old house, and it seems that there is no connection at all, but in fact, there is an inextricable connection behind it.

Since the beginning of the transformation, everyone has talked about it, and I have summarized it, mainly including these categories.

Is the transformation of urban villages a "new round of shed reform"? After the renovation, will house prices rise? Will old houses sell better in the future?

Anyway, the core is four words - rising house prices.

01 / Is there a difference between an urban village and an old house? After the renovation, will house prices really rise?

Not only a few people, I have found that how many people equate "urban village transformation" with old renovation, and even shed renovation, but this is not the case at all.

In fact, the peculiarities of urban villages are very strong. In layman's terms, we can think of it as "rural within the city".

Here we must help everyone clarify the concept in advance: rural areas are collective land, while cities are state-owned land, and what we usually call "buying and selling houses" refers to trading houses on state-owned land, not collective land.

At first, the scale of the city was small, it was a real countryside, but as the area of the city expanded, the countryside was gradually surrounded, so the urban village came into being.

And those 20-year-old staircase houses, more of which are houses on state-owned land, can be traded, which is the key difference.

In the past, because of this peculiarity, there was very little news about urban villages.

Although as early as nine years ago, in 2014, the central government issued a key document: the "Opinions on Rural Land Expropriation, Collective Operation Construction Land into the Market, and Homestead System Reform Pilot Work". But to be honest, the implementation is not good.

I think the core reason is that once the collective land enters the market, that is, allows urban villages to trade, it may affect the state-owned land. Once the land is not sold well, urban development will definitely be limited.

Therefore, this urban village transformation can drive house prices up. The key is not whether the transformation is thorough enough, how to transform it, and so on, as some people say

In fact, it is still the same old tune, that is, collective land can smoothly enter the market.

02 / Can the renovation of urban villages make old houses taste good again?

It must be added that if the urban village can trade, it will definitely be able to eat again.

Why do you say that? As soon as I say why, you will immediately understand.

First, according to statistics, among the 21 megacities on the mainland, the scale of urban villages exceeds 1.1 billion square meters, even if it is calculated according to the "excess" of 100 square meters per house, there are enough 1,100 suites.

In the face of high housing prices, the price of these houses is definitely cheap, and after the renovation is completed, it will undoubtedly provide a large number of potential listings for the market.

Even if you can't sell it, you can definitely rent it. Objectively speaking, though, there's one problem that could be a stumbling block: rising rents.

At present, there are already signs of this, for example, the rent of some urban villages in Shenzhen has risen from 1,000 yuan to 2,000 yuan, and so on.

Second, in the future, large cities will siphon more people, which is the potential rental and home buyers.

I specifically checked the public data, and from 2012 to 2022, the top 10 cities in the country were all economic cities. All of them are calculated, the average annual inflow of more than 4 million people.

Obviously, when they first enter the city, most people will rent rather than buy.

Then many of them choose urban villages with relatively low rents for reasons such as convenience and cost reduction.

After the renovation, the living environment has been greatly improved, which is not difficult to understand.

End of article:

Strictly speaking, I think that the renovation of urban villages is not a new round of shed reform, but can only say that there are common things, such as all for old houses.

Although after the renovation, they will most likely be good, but there is one problem that will follow: house prices/rents will rise.

If this problem is not solved, the effect will definitely be limited.

What do you think about this?

Welcome to friendly discussion!