#秋日生活打卡季#
Reporter He Chang
Edited by Gao Yulei
At least from the box office performance of the 2023 National Day films, the head-to-head competition between Zhang Yimou and Chen Kaige, the two "fifth-generation directors", and the same stage confrontation of three listed film companies, Light Media, China Film and Huayi Brothers, have not achieved the expected results.
According to the statistics of the National Film Administration, the 2023 National Day file (September 29 to October 6) will finally end with a total box office of 2.734 billion yuan, with 65.1 million moviegoers, and the box office of its Chinese-made films will be 2.618 billion yuan, accounting for 95.78% of the market.
The numbers are slightly flat. After all, the summer file is hot ahead, the total box office of 20.619 billion yuan has set a new record in the same period in history, and movies such as "Disappearing Her", "Desperate", "The First Feng Shen" have brushed their sense of existence. Based on this, the outside world has a lot of expectations for the next National Day file. Previously, a number of institutions, including CSC and Everbright Securities, predicted that the unexpected recovery trend of the summer file is expected to continue to the National Day file. CSC even mentioned that it is expected that under neutral circumstances, the national comprehensive box office of the National Day file in 2023 is expected to reach 5.25 billion yuan.
However, whether it is box office, word of mouth, or even discussion on social media, there is a certain gap between the National Day file and the summer file. This is not only the reason for the movie itself, but also related to the special features of this National Day file. The audience's attention is always limited, and when limited attention meets "unsatisfactory" content, the cinema loses its reason to be chosen.
The types are diverse, but the "refreshment" is insufficient
Chen Jin, data analyst of Lighthouse Professional Edition, said that multi-power competition is the main feature of the competition pattern of this year's National Day market. Specifically, a total of 12 new films were released on National Day this year, the largest number in the past five years, covering war, action, love, suspense, animation, comedy and other genres, both well-known directors' masterpieces and popular IP continuations, providing audiences of all ages with relatively rich viewing options.
However, "applauded and sold", that is, movies that have both box office and word of mouth, are only a minority after all. First look at the "Calling for a Seat" - according to data released by the National Film Administration, the top 5 films at the box office on National Day are: "Rock Solid", known as "Zhang Yimou's first crime suspense movie", 883 million yuan; The IP continued to the tenth year of the "ex" series of romance films "Ex 4: Marriage Young", 619 million yuan; Chen Kaige directed and the first part of the "Volunteers" trilogy "Volunteers: Heroic Attack", 498 million yuan; Qiu Litao's fourth film "The 93 International Train Robbery: Operation Moscow" released this year was 409 million yuan; It seems to be a sports element comedy "It Doesn't Seem to Be So Hot" produced by Happy Twist, but in fact has nothing to do with it, 105 million yuan.
Let's say "applauds" - considering that Taobao Tickets, Maoyan and Weibo have all penetrated into the upstream of the film industry and are increasingly involved in the process of film production and distribution, even if it is subject to the controversy of "water army" and "brush score", Douban still has a relatively independent scoring system that can be used as a reference. As of press time, the movie with the highest rating on Douban on National Day is "The Wangwang Team Makes a Contribution Movie 2: Super Adventure", with 7.4 points; The aforementioned top 5 box office movies have Douban scores of 6.3 points, 6.1 points, 7.1 points, 6.7 points and 7.0 points, all below 8 points; there are also films such as "Beacon Bear: Mission to Mars", "I Am Nezha 2's Hero Returns", "The King of Kung Fu: The Cute Tiger Goes Up the Mountain", "Happy Pony Lantern", "The Legend of the Sea Monster of the Little Mermaid" and other films have not yet been scored. In contrast, this summer's two movies have led the first half and the second half - "Disappearing Her" has a Douban score of 6.2 points, and "Desperate" has 6.9 points.
At present, it is a recognized fact in the industry that the catering to social issues and emotional values has increasingly become the explosive "password" of domestic films. Taking "Disappearing Her" as an example, the element style is mixed, the storyline is jumpy, and the character image is stereotyped, but as long as it captures the needs of the audience and gives enough "refreshment", the commercial value of the film rises sharply, and the box office rises.
An audience member believes that the reason for the "dumb fire" of the National Day file is that the release of the new film lacks an emotional "detonator". In his view, even the so-called "Predecessor 4: Teenage Marriage" that analyzes the problem of love and marriage, when seen at the end, is more like a MV that forcibly sensationalizes with golden songs, "all dialogue, but none of them really poke your heart". Coupled with the aesthetic fatigue at the subject level, it is not easy to make the audience pay for the content of déjà vu, and it is even more difficult to get out of the circle.
Even "Rock Solid", which is known as Zhang Yimou's personal "new attempt", cannot escape the fate of being criticized by the audience: the plot editing is "fragmented", the key turns are "inexplicable", and the scene setting is "unclear". Under the "refreshment", the audience who can carefully piece together the story line is only a minority after all, and more people walk out of the cinema with a full of question marks and "not worth spending" anger, still knowing the development of the storyline and the motivation of the characters' behavior. So much so that some Douban users who gave a five-star rating were surprised and asked: "Is the one who gave one star the same movie as me?" ”
Increased choice and distraction
In addition to the "misalignment" of film quality, content itself and audience demand, what affected the box office of this National Day file were other entertainment options during the "November" long holiday.
First of all, due to the integration of the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day this year, the "Eleventh" long holiday will last for 8 days after the holiday, which even exceeds the length of the Spring Festival holiday. According to the website of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, the characteristics of "reunion in the first half and tourism in the second half" during the holiday are more obvious, the willingness of the masses to travel during the holiday has been released in a concentrated manner, and medium and long-distance tourism has achieved higher growth. According to the data center of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, during the "National Day" holiday, the number of domestic tourists traveled 826 million, an increase of 71.3% year-on-year on a comparable basis, and an increase of 4.1% compared with 2019 on a comparable basis; The domestic tourism revenue reached 753.43 billion yuan, an increase of 129.5% year-on-year on a comparable basis, and an increase of 1.5% over 2019 on a comparable basis. The cultural and tourism industry has recovered strongly, and the national holiday market has been stable and orderly.
Qunar's big data also shows that during the "National Day" holiday, the number of air ticket bookings in popular cities in China increased by nearly 50% compared with before the epidemic (that is, the same period in 2019), and the number of air ticket bookings departing on September 29 reached a record high; Hotel bookings in popular cities in China increased by 2 times compared with pre-epidemic levels; The number of orders for long-term tours and niche destinations increased significantly, which was 3 times higher than that of the "May Day" holiday.
The increase in the number of trips has also led to the increase in the proportion of tickets purchased in different places on National Day. According to the data of Lighthouse Professional Edition, the proportion of tickets purchased in different places on National Day this year was 27.6%, the highest value in the past five years. Of course, the increase in choice means a great distraction. An audience member who watched many summer movies turned to outbound travel on National Day, because "the need to go out to play is more urgent than watching movies." "I haven't been abroad for three years, it's hard to catch up with such a long vacation, movies can usually be watched if you want, aren't there video websites offline in theaters, and there is no hurry in these days."
In addition, the National Day file coincides with the Hangzhou Asian Games, and offline visits to the venue or online watching the live broadcast of the event also occupy the content consumption time originally belonging to the National Day movie to a certain extent. The core of the competition lies in the quality, attractiveness and scarcity of entertainment activities, especially under the premise that the summer file has fully released the enthusiasm of some audiences, and the moderate shift of audience attention is an inevitability.
What's more, this year's National Day pre-sale opened on September 26, only two days in advance, and did not set up a large-scale point screening, the pre-heating was not enough, which inevitably affected the adjustment of the publicity rhythm during the schedule. Under this circumstance, whether the National Day movie can achieve a breakthrough at the box office depends on the subsequent long-tail performance.
An industry insider told the power plant that the movie schedule is a process of "multiple guesses, unknown games", and after a pre-trial competition, it is done in mind. At present, although the schedule is becoming more and more distinct, the consumption power of weekends should not be underestimated. When movies truly become an ordinary consumer product, there is only one factor that determines whether the audience walks into the cinema, and that is the content itself.
This may not be a very optimistic conclusion, but it should not be overly pessimistic. In other words, the feedback of the audience is bound to affect the creator, and the content created by the creator will always find their audience, and the content differentiation is everywhere. But most people will eventually reunite in front of the screen of a blockbuster movie, holding a number plate with the greatest common divisor of life written on it.