The deposit war swept from Hong Kong to the mainland...

Author: Deng Xinhua

Source: Kung Fu Finance

Reprint authorization has been obtained

The various attractions of this National Day are crowded with people, and people burst into high tourism enthusiasm. But before the National Day, an alternative "tourism" was already very popular, that is, special forces to open an account and save money.

01

The deposit special forces boom broke out from Hong Kong

This "account opening tour" first became popular in Hong Kong. Many mainlanders went to Hong Kong to open an account and save money, and went back the same day.

At some banks in Hong Kong, account holders often have to queue for hours. Someone rushed to the bank at 7 a.m. to line up and found that there were already a dozen people in front. Now this boom has swept the mainland.

The five-year time deposit rate of the Big Four was cut by 15 basis points to 2.5% in early June and 2.25% in early September.

Meanwhile, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority raised its base interest rate from 0.5% to 5.75% between 2022 and July this year, the highest level since 2007.

Why did Hong Kong raise interest rates to such high levels?

This is because Hong Kong implements a linked exchange rate system that is closely pegged to the US dollar. The system is as follows: banks in Hong Kong that have the right to issue Hong Kong dollars must be backed by a fixed proportion of US dollar deposits when issuing Hong Kong dollars. Under this system, if the Fed raises interest rates, Hong Kong must also raise interest rates, otherwise the sharp outflow of US dollars will seriously affect Hong Kong's financial stability.

The mainland has cut interest rates and Hong Kong has raised interest rates, and many mainlanders have seen such a high interest rate difference and run to Hong Kong to save money. In particular, some Hong Kong banks claim interest rates of more than 7%, which is even more insane.

The deposit interest rate is more than 7%, which is much cooler than financial management?

But in fact, what mainlanders who go to Hong Kong to open an account can get is basically an interest rate of more than 4%. At the beginning of September, the US dollar deposit interest rate of BOC, HSBC and Standard Chartered for new funds was 3.9% for 3 months, 4% for 6 months and 4% for 1 year. If the deposit amount meets certain conditions, you can also enjoy a higher interest rate.

The so-called interest rate of more than 7% is actually mainly a marketing means by banks to attract new customers, that is, after you deposit, you can enjoy this interest rate only in the first month. Some banks also require that they must exchange foreign exchange at the bank, and the exchange fee is also a sum of money. But regardless, Hong Kong banks' interest rates are much higher than those on the mainland.

It's embarrassing that the situation has been reversed. A few years ago, mainlanders borrowed money from banks at high interest rates to buy houses, and Hong Kong's money was very cheap. I know a netizen who bought a house, he looked at the cheap money in Hong Kong and drooled, but he couldn't use it.

02

Take the train for more than 1,000 kilometers to save money

Go to Hong Kong to save money, after all, there are still many inconvenient places. One of the most inconvenient is capital flow controls. Therefore, this channel is far from meeting the huge demand of the market.

In the mainland, after the four major banks lowered deposit interest rates, some local banks still maintained high deposit interest rates, which caused the frantic flow of deposit special forces.

Assuming that 100,000 yuan is deposited for 5 years, the deposit interest rate of the four major banks is 2.25%, and the interest is about 11,767 yuan respectively, while the interest rate of some local banks is 4.0%, and the interest is about 21,665 yuan, a difference of 9,898 yuan.

According to media reports, Pan Ling, a girl working in the Beijing system, took annual leave, took an overnight train, crossed more than 1,000 kilometers from Beijing to Sichuan, checked the bus route herself, took the bus to the bank branch, and deposited more than 400,000 yuan, of which only half saved an interest rate of 4.05%.

Various "special forces raiders" have attracted widespread attention. Many people said on social platforms that they "squat as a high-interest bank relationship manager" and "want to be a deposit special force". Some relationship managers of local small and medium-sized banks in Jiangsu, Sichuan, Guizhou and other places will take the initiative to contact these people and provide services to them when they see the information.

Of course, there are not many local banks with a 4% interest rate now. In addition, many people do not trust local banks as much. But it doesn't matter, interest rates above 3% are still enough to attract deposit special forces to travel thousands of miles. Because they expect interest rates to fall, they are extremely sensitive to interest rates, even if the annual interest rate is 0.1% more, it can be 0.5% more in 5 years, which is enough to increase a large number of deposit special forces.

It should be said that these deposit special forces, and most ordinary people, belong to a different world.

For example, a deposit special soldier said: "People are inevitably natural disasters and man-made disasters, or hope to think more about the future, at least deposit 10 million, may dare to say that there is a sense of security." ”

Deposit 10 million to feel safe? Ordinary people heard this, are they particularly heart-piercing?

In 2011, Zhong Wei, a professor at Beijing Normal University, proposed that after 20 years, it would take 10 million yuan to save for retirement. As soon as this remark came out, it caused ridicule and rebuttal throughout the country.

But now only 12 years later, many people already see it as a cruel demand of reality.

They are not only pursuing a deposit of 10 million yuan, but also have a higher deposit interest rate to feel at ease. If the deposit interest rate is just over 2%, this will certainly not give them peace of mind.

Can you blame them? It doesn't seem to be either. Over the years, there have been too many lightning explosions. Financial management thunder, trust thunder, P2P thunder, even deposits, thunder...

However, even they who have a certain family background, they feel so uncomfortable, can you imagine what kind of anxiety and suffering those old people who only have a meager pension money are experiencing? It's just that their feelings are outside the field of view of mainstream public opinion.

Of course, it's not just the elderly who are anxious.

03

High interest rates, unsustainable

10 million deposits, which is obviously out of reach for the vast majority of ordinary people. So, how to make ordinary people feel at ease?

In fact, deposits do not give peace of mind. Even if you have 10 million deposits, the deposit interest rate is 5%, what? Can you guarantee that your deposit will not explode?

After all, the high return on deposits comes from the hard work of enterprises. If the enterprise does not get a good return on hard work, the deposit return is a source of water, and lightning explosion is inevitable.

What can really make people feel at ease is a relaxed and peaceful social development environment.

Entrepreneurs can start businesses and do things with peace of mind, scholars can conduct research with peace of mind, actors can perform with peace of mind, ordinary people can work with peace of mind...

In short, reducing the shackles and allowing people to let go and create wealth, even if there is no 10 million in savings, but with a stable income, people will feel that the future will not be precarious.

Back to the question of deposit special forces. Can high interest rates in Hong Kong banks be sustained? Apparently not, too.

The US Treasury debt costs nearly $1.7 trillion a year in interest alone, which shows that the US economy is extremely unhealthy.

The U.S. economy is still relatively strong, but one of the characteristics of the U.S. economy is that turning into recession happens overnight. The Great Depression of 1929 broke out on just one Friday, which caused Americans to have a long-term psychological shadow about Friday.

Once a financial crisis occurs in the United States, the high interest rate in the United States will inevitably end, and the high interest rate in Hong Kong will naturally only end.

To make matters worse, the US financial crisis is bound to weigh down the world and hit the Chinese economy hard.

The problem now is that no one knows when America's problems will erupt. The best response is to race against time to restore a relaxed and peaceful development environment, reduce the constraints on people to do things, and increase economic resilience to global shocks.