Gold prices fell for 9 consecutive days, buying gold before the holiday became a "big wrong"? What signal?
Since the beginning of this year, in the context of rising gold prices, the market has ushered in a boom in buying gold, and "the bride spends 500,000 yuan to buy gold bars" has also been on the hot search during the National Day holiday. However, the front foot of gold prices just broke through the high of 610 yuan per gram in mid-September, and the back foot fell rapidly during the Mid-Autumn Festival National Day holiday.
The reporter noticed that on September 15, the price of gold jewelry in many stores was as high as 615 yuan per gram, and by October 6, it had fallen to 583 yuan per gram, and it fell by more than 30 yuan / gram in more than half a month. Behind the sharp decline in the gold price of stores, the international gold price has been volatile and corrective in recent days. Take London Gold as an example, which has fallen for nine consecutive trading days since September 25.
However, institutional people are not pessimistic about the future trend of gold. Looking forward to the future market, many institutional analysts believe that this round of gold price adjustment is nearing the end, optimistic about the performance of gold assets in the fourth quarter.
The price of gold in stores fell sharply, and consumers who bought before the holiday called out "big wrongs"
The reporter noticed that in mid-to-late September, the price of gold jewelry in many gold brand stores broke through the high of 610 yuan / gram, and after the continuous decline in gold prices since the end of September, it fell by more than 30 yuan per gram in more than half a month.
Taking Chow Tai Fook as an example, the official website of Chow Tai Fook shows that the price of Chow Tai Fook full gold (jewelry, ornaments) on September 15 was 615 yuan / gram, and until September 24, the full gold was still as high as 612 yuan / gram, and on October 6 it was 583 yuan / gram, that is, from mid-September to the present, the price of gold has fallen by more than 30 yuan / gram.
In addition, Chow Tai Fook handicrafts (gold bars, gold medallions) were 605 yuan/gram on September 15, and 573 yuan/gram on October 6; Investing in gold was 552 yuan/g on September 15, compared to 536 yuan/g on October 6. In terms of recycling prices, the gold price of Chow Tai Fook Gold Recycling Service was 454 yuan/gram on September 15, and 426 yuan/gram on October 6, and the recycling price also fell by nearly 30 yuan.
(Chow Tai Fook official website gold price comparison on September 15 and October 6)
Previously, due to the continuous rise in gold prices since this year, a "gold buying fever" was set off among consumers, whether it was gold jewelry, gold bars or gold financial products, the attention has risen sharply.
According to the China Gold Association, from January to August 2023, the cumulative trading volume of all gold varieties on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 14,316.449 tons unilaterally (28,632.897 tons bilaterally), up 6.06% year-on-year, and the cumulative turnover was 6.2609 trillion yuan unilaterally (12.5217 trillion yuan bilaterally), up 19.07% year-on-year. China's gold reserves were reported at 69.62 million ounces (about 2165.43 tons) at the end of August, an increase of 930,000 ounces (about 28.93 tons) from the previous month, marking the 10th consecutive month of gold inflows.
The reporter noticed that after the gold price pullback during the Mid-Autumn Festival National Day holiday, on social networking sites, many consumers complained that they were buying gold at a high of more than 600 yuan. Another netizen jokingly said: "The reason for the gold plunge was found, because I entered the market and lost money." ”
However, for the correction of gold prices, many consumers are ready to start, and many consumers have left messages saying "squat at a lower price" and "gold jewellery is one step closer to me". Another netizen said: "Gold looks at the long line, it doesn't matter if you buy jewelry, the brand workmanship is exquisite and there must be a premium." ”
The international gold price fell for 9 consecutive days, and the correction is nearing the end?
Behind the sharp drop in store gold prices, the international gold price has been volatile and corrective in recent days after climbing to a new high for the year in early May.
Taking London Gold as an example, from September 25 to October 5, it has fallen for nine consecutive trading days, constantly refreshing new records for consecutive declines this year. Specifically, London gold closed at $1924.68 / oz on September 22, and once fell to $1814.8 / oz on October 3, hitting a new low in nearly seven months, with a range decline of 5.7%.
On October 6, London gold once continued to dip, as of 22:06, it was at 1822.83 US dollars / ounce, up slightly by 0.14%.
"The main factor affecting the decline in international gold prices is the Fed's attitude towards inflation, and the most intuitive manifestation is the recent rapid rise in US Treasury yields, especially the rapid rise in ten-year and 30-year Treasury bond yield benchmarks, and the pressure on safe-haven assets such as gold is still quite large." A metal industry analyst at a brokerage research institute told Brokerage China reporter.
"Looking at the future, I think this wave of adjustment is nearing its end. At present, the gold price is around $1800 / oz, down $100 from its high, and has adjusted to the level at the beginning of this year. The market is now expecting another interest rate hike in the fourth quarter, after which Treasury yield growth may slow and inflation concerns will slow as crude oil prices adjust. The analyst said.
"In the long run, inflation in Europe and the United States will remain high for a long time, and the yield of 10-year government bonds will return as a pricing benchmark, which is also good for gold prices, and I think the gold price of $1800 / oz is a relatively solid bottom." We are still optimistic about gold assets as safe-haven/anti-inflation assets, and they will still perform relatively well for a long time to come. The above-mentioned person told reporters.
Shanghai Orient Futures Research Report said that gold's downward risk has been fully released, and gradually ushered in the allocation point. London gold is now expected to hold on to the bottom of $1,800 an ounce and wait for the Fed to turn dovish marginally. The probability of the Fed opening a rate cut cycle during the year is low, making it difficult for gold to break through the previous high in the fourth quarter, and gold prices are expected to fluctuate to the upside, with London gold operating in the range of 1800-2100 US dollars / ounce, and Shanghai gold main contract operating range of 440-500 yuan / gram.
According to the Hehe Futures Research Report, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released data showing that although the new non-farm payrolls in August were higher than expected, the total number of new jobs in June and July after revision was 110,000 lower than before the revision, coupled with the intensifying UAW strike, the US employment data is not optimistic. The year-on-year increase in CPI in August rebounded to 3.7% from 3.2% in July, the second consecutive month of year-on-year growth rebound, and the Fed's measures, as expected by the market, did not raise interest rates continuously, but raised interest rate expectations for the next two years, releasing a signal that high interest rates will remain longer, and some officials expressed that their expectations were more hawkish. At the same time, the time for the US government shutdown is getting closer, and the sharp decline in seasonal labor demand further shows the decline in holiday shopping consumption in the United States. The European and American economies are not optimistic, supporting the high operation of gold prices.
"The bride spends 500,000 yuan to buy gold bars" is on the hot search, and young people's wedding jewelry is more diversified
On the other hand, on October 5, a news that "a girl gave up buying a diamond ring and spent 500,000 yuan to buy gold bars" rushed to the hot search, and once again pushed the gold discussion to a high point.
In the past two years, young people's enthusiasm for diamond consumption has ceased to be high, and many brides have come out of the fairy tale of love for diamonds. Tian Tian, a post-90s Beijing girl, gave up buying a diamond ring on the eve of her wedding and bought an investment gold bar. Tian Tian said: "Since last year, the price of gold has been rising, and it is obviously more appropriate to buy gold. So when my mother-in-law took me to choose wedding jewelry, I decisively chose gold. In order to maintain and appreciate my value, I finally bought 500,000 yuan of investment gold bars. ”
Although it is an isolated case, it has caused such heated discussions, which also reflects the more diversified choices of young people when getting married and buying three gold and one diamond.
The reporter interviewed a number of women who recently got married and bought gold jewelry and found that compared with the past, although young people are also affected by traditional concepts when they get married, they will also consider their preferences, the style and practicality of jewelry.
Ms. Zhang Yi (pseudonym) from Shanghai told reporters: "I didn't buy diamonds or gold because I got married, I just invested in buying some gold." There are more big brands of jewelry bought for marriage, the styles of big brands are more fashionable and atmospheric, and I think the small ones are not interesting, and the big ones are too conspicuous and not everyday enough. ”
Ms. Zhou from Beijing said: "When getting married, I tend to buy a pair of practical wedding rings (small diamonds) and some gold (depending on the price of gold), and the total budget is less than 100,000 yuan. It mainly takes into account the influence of traditional thinking as well as the practical level. Ms. Wang, from Beijing, said: "I want to buy a pair of practical wedding rings (platinum diamonds), and the others want to buy colored treasures, not gold." Mainly taking into account preferences and future usage. ”
Ms. Yang, who lives in Shenzhen, told reporters: "I recently got married and bought diamond rings and gold. Diamonds are because they will not buy again in the future, or want to have one, and wedding rings are often worn, comfort and style should be considered; I buy gold because I usually like to wear gold jewelry. Ms. Yu from Chengdu said: "I only need gold when I get married, not diamonds, and gold can still appreciate in value." ”
Source: Brokerage China