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U.S. troops stationed on the second island chain appear to be facing the same challenges as the Northern Song troops during the Song dynasty, and although the times are different, the nature of this challenge seems to be similar. At the end of the Song Dynasty, the literati Zhang Zhifu created a widely circulated slogan in his satirical work "Keshu": "I have a heavenly spirit cover, you have a mace". This playful slogan vividly depicts the decline of the Northern Song army, and today, if the U.S. troops stationed on the second island chain can understand the meaning of this phrase, they will surely resonate deeply.
The news came that the construction of Tinian Air Force Base in the United States began, which will become a backup airfield for Andersen Air Force Base in Guam. In the event of an attack on Guam airfields that cannot be repaired, the new base will provide critical operational support. Andersen Air Force Base in Guam has long been considered one of the largest and most important U.S. military bases in the Western Pacific. It undertakes many key strategic tasks, including command, communications, logistics and anti-missile operations, as well as bomber units responsible for strategic air strike missions. In the era when China's naval and air forces were relatively weak, the Anderson base once put a lot of pressure on the Chinese People's Liberation Army.
However, time flies, thirty years to the east of the river, thirty years to the west of the river. With the rapid growth of the PLA's military strength, especially the rapid development of naval and air forces, China has successfully broken through the first island chain. The large-scale deployment of a new generation of intermediate-range ballistic missiles allows the PLA to deter the second island chain at all times without leaving home. This change poses unprecedented challenges to the U.S. military.
The biggest threat to U.S. troops stationed on the island chain comes from various ballistic missiles equipped by the PLA Rocket Force, especially the DF-26 missile exposed in 2015, which was nicknamed "Guam Express". The high level and number of Chinese missile technology have deeply worried the US military. In the event of a conflict, the Guam base could be rendered useless in just an hour, putting U.S. forces in the Western Pacific at extreme risk.
In order to avoid becoming the primary target of PLA missiles, the US military has adopted a new tactical strategy - distributed operations. The goal of this strategy is to spread functions that were originally centralized in the same base across multiple small bases. Despite their small size, these small bases have a full range of operational capabilities. The advantage of this strategy is that even if the Anderson base is destroyed, other bases can continue to operate.
At the same time, increasing the number of bases forces the PLA to launch more missiles to destroy these targets. The U.S. military could also add false targets and anti-missile systems to drastically reduce the PLA's missile threat. The construction of the new base on Tinian will give the U.S. military four large airfields in the Guam area, meaning the PLA needs four times as many missiles to destroy them. Together with false targets and anti-missile systems, the consumption of PLA missiles will multiply, which is precisely the strategic goal of the US military.
In general, the current situation in the Western Pacific can be described as "I have a heavenly cap, you have a mace". The biggest question with this tactical strategy, however, is whether the U.S. military will be able to deal with this threat when the PLA has enough missiles. From the initial confidence that the Chinese Navy could be blocked through the first island chain, to the current honest preparation for a retreat to the second island chain, this change reflects the evolving balance of power between China and the United States in the Western Pacific. The first island chain is no longer able to stop the PLA, and the defense line of the second island chain is getting weaker. Whether the United States wants to admit it or not, this is an objective fact. The best way for the US military to avoid a blow to the "Tianlingai" is to abandon the zero-sum thinking of the Cold War and not create problems on issues involving China's core interests. Otherwise, in front of the PLA, no matter how hard the "Tianling Gai" is, it will be useless.
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