What are the A-share markets buying after the National Day over the years?
Your holiday balance is insufficient, what is everyone buying after the National Day? What kind of opportunity can be seized in the fourth quarter, and it is more important to lay out in a timely manner! Regarding this issue, and listen to the editor to give you a clear look at it one by one~
The calendar effect before and after National Day has always been widely valued by the market, and it is also regarded by investors as the "anchor" of investment decisions. According to statistics, the market rise and fall in the two weeks before and after the National Day long holiday, and the week before and after the long holiday, it can be found that the market trading before the long holiday is relatively light, which is also related to the overseas uncertainties of some funds to avoid holiday time. The Wande All A Index fell by -1.02% on average in the week before the holiday and -0.54% in the two weeks before the holiday, while the Wande All A Index rose by an average of 2.10% in the week after the holiday and 1.47% in the two weeks after the holiday. It can be seen that holding stocks after the holiday and waiting for the post-holiday rise is historically a considerable winning rate.
Data source: Choice, the statistical interval is one week and two weeks before and after the National Day from 2013 to 2022, no investment recommendation is made.
So on the question of what to buy after the holiday, there are many dry goods, and Fuji pulled a set of data for the guests to taste.
Historical performance: small-cap growth first, large-cap value second
Statistics of the post-holiday performance of the main broad-based indexes in the past ten years, the probability of Wande All A rising in the week after the holiday is as high as 90%, and the probability of Wande All A rising in the two weeks after the holiday is 80%, at the same time, from the perspective of the median rise and fall of the post-holiday index, the small-cap growth stocks represented by the CSI 1000 in the week after the holiday performed better, followed by the CSI 500 and ChiNext Index; Large-cap stocks came to the top two weeks after the holiday, with large-cap value stocks represented by the SSE 50 and CSI 300 leading the market.
Data source: Choice, the statistical interval is one week and two weeks after the National Day from 2013 to 2022, no investment recommendation is made.
Industry performance is mixed, with consumption dominating
According to Shenwan's first-level industry classification, the top three industries with an average rise and fall in the week after the holiday are agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, power equipment, textiles and clothing, and the top three average increases in the two weeks after the holiday are beauty care, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, household appliances, and the performance of large consumption is dominant, it seems that everyone spends the holiday after the holiday also has the opportunity to earn back!
Data source: Choice, the statistical interval is one week and two weeks after the National Day from 2013 to 2022, no investment recommendation is made.
The fourth quarter may continue the "calendar effect", focusing on the broader market value style
In the longer term, how should I buy in the fourth quarter after the National Day? Since the beginning of this year, the A-share sector has rotated rapidly, and the styles of large and small caps have been switched many times, but the overall balance is relatively balanced, the TMT sector has the best performance, and financial real estate ranks second.
Data source: Choice, statistical interval: 2023/1/1~2023/9/24, no investment recommendation.
Observing the performance of the main broad-based indices in the fourth quarter after the holiday, it can be found that the median rise and fall of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index and the CSI 300 Index tends to be 5.0% and 5.1% respectively, and the value style of the broader market may be worth looking forward to; From the perspective of industry, the median rise and fall of the consumer sector in the fourth quarter of the past year was 4.5%, leading other industry styles, followed by financial real estate.
Data source: Choice, statistical period is 2010-2022, no investment recommendation.
Focus: It is not difficult to see that the value style of the broader market deserves medium and long-term attention after the holiday, among which the consumer sector may perform.
In fact, it is not difficult to understand the reasons from internal and external causes:
First of all, under the force of the steady growth policy, the market mainly interpreted the response to the policy in the third quarter, and on this basis, the policy, consumption recovery, and fundamentals in the fourth quarter resonated, driving the market to pick up. At the same time, under the weak economic recovery, monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative and the liquidity environment is abundant.
Second, the dollar index rose in September, but the renminbi remained firm against the dollar. Looking backwards, Sino-US relations have shown signs of relaxation, and the policy of stabilizing the exchange rate has exerted strength, and the support for the RMB exchange rate has been strengthened. As the Fed's interest rate hike cycle draws to a close, the stabilization of domestic economic fundamentals brings a reversal of pessimistic expectations, which is expected to lead to the narrowing of the inversion of interest rate differentials between China and the United States.
A good economy and abundant liquidity are often the trigger conditions for the dominance of value style, so the value market in the fourth quarter can be expected.
It should be reminded that the market is unpredictable, and although past statistics have certain reference value, they do not necessarily indicate the future direction of the market, and we still have to be in awe of the uncertainty of the market.
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