Hong Kong stocks and US stocks are "unfavorable", how to start after the A-share holiday? Public offering: The winning rate after the holiday is considerable
Halfway through the National Day holiday, Hong Kong stocks and U.S. stocks took the lead in opening, kicking off the fourth quarter of the capital market.
But judging from October 4, the performance of Hong Kong stocks is lackluster. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell by 0.78% and the Hang Seng Technology Index by 1.71%. On October 3, both the Dow Jones and the NASDAQ fell more than 1%. What impact will the decline in the peripheral market have on A-shares in the fourth quarter?
Judging from the analysis and prediction of major public offerings, there is an obvious "calendar effect" in the past trend of A-shares around the National Day. Compared with the peripheral market that opened first, factors such as the economic fundamentals and liquidity of A-shares are the determining factors of the market. According to public offering analysis, based on the perspective of win rate, the probability of most index increases in the fourth quarter will be significantly higher than that in the third quarter. In addition, before the "late autumn", A-shares basically meet the "policy bottom-market bottom" interval and the "last fall" duration. In late autumn, with the release of economic data for September, the economic recovery trend will strengthen market confidence.
In addition, A-shares are currently in a low historical position, and growth stocks are almost at a historically cost-effective moment. High-quality growth sectors such as data elements (operators), AI (computing power, optical modules), and Huawei TECH industry chain (semiconductors, smartphones, intelligent driving, and cloud computing) will be the key layout sectors in the fourth quarter. In addition, benefiting from the continuous economic recovery, the performance of food and beverages in consumption, home appliances and home appliances in the real estate chain is supported.
The rise after the holiday has a considerable winning rate
According to the analysis of Wells Fargo Fund, the "calendar effect" before and after the A-share National Day has always been widely valued by the market, and it is also regarded by investors as the "anchor" for investment decisions. Statistics on the market ups and downs in the two weeks before and after the National Day long holiday and the week before and after the National Day can be found that the market trading before the long holiday is relatively light, which is also related to the fact that some funds are in order to avoid overseas uncertainties during the holiday. The Wande All A Index fell by an average of 1.02% in the week before the holiday and 0.54% in the two weeks before the holiday, while the Wande All A Index rose by an average of 2.10% in the week after the holiday and 1.47% in the two weeks after the holiday. It can be seen that holding stocks after the holiday and waiting for the post-holiday rise is historically a considerable winning rate.
Wells Fargo Fund cited data (the statistical interval is one week and two weeks after the National Day from 2013 to 2022), in the past ten years, the post-holiday performance of the main broad-based indexes shows that the probability of a rise of Wande All A in the week after the holiday is as high as 90%, and the probability of a rise in Wande All A two weeks after the holiday is 80%. At the same time, from the perspective of the median rise and fall of the post-holiday index, small-cap growth stocks represented by the CSI 1000 performed better in the week after the holiday, followed by the CSI 500 and ChiNext index. Large-cap stocks came to the top two weeks after the holiday, with large-cap value stocks represented by the SSE 50 and CSI 300 leading the market.
Huaxia Fund said that from the perspective of stock market rules, the current market is in the process of quantitative and qualitative change in policy pricing, and the general direction is relatively clear, which is the market consensus. However, in the process of gradually confirming the "policy bottom", the game often makes the market "last fall", and the review past found that the duration of the "last fall" is about 20-30 trading days. Taking the Politburo meeting on July 24 as a signal of the end of this policy, the interval between the current round of "policy bottom-market bottom" and the duration of the "last decline" have basically been met by the "late autumn".
"Judging from the results of the historical review of the calendar effect, the A-share market in the third quarter of the calendar year is generally poor, and the market in the fourth quarter is relatively good. Based on the historical market comparison from the third quarter to the fourth quarter from the perspective of the win rate, the probability of most index rises in the fourth quarter will be significantly higher than that in the third quarter. Huaxia Fund said.
The economic recovery strengthens market confidence
From a more in-depth fundamental analysis, macroeconomic improvement is considered to be an important supporting factor for the fourth quarter.
Huaxia Fund believes that a number of domestic macro data have improved in August: the official manufacturing PMI has rebounded for the third consecutive month; Price data picked up, CPI turned from negative to positive year-on-year, and PPI ended four consecutive months of month-on-month decline; New social finance and credit have entered the repair channel; Indicators such as industrial added value and social zero exceeded market consensus expectations. "In late autumn, with the release of economic data in September, the economic recovery trend is expected to be verified after the previous package of policies has taken effect, strengthening market confidence."
CEIBS Fund pointed out that China's economy is in the process of recovery after the end of the epidemic and is expected to improve in the fourth quarter. After the Politburo meeting in July, macro-control has clearly entered the stage of counter-cyclical adjustment, especially the major adjustment of real estate related expressions, which has been gradually realized in the adjustment of real estate policies in various places in mid-to-late August, and the work of resolving local debts is also actively promoted, which is crucial for stabilizing market expectations and improving the quality of growth.
Yong Win Fund said that the month-on-month economic growth momentum in the fourth quarter strengthened again, and there are three points of analysis:
First, the month-on-month momentum of the economy stabilized in July and August, signs of recovery have appeared, the reversal of the inventory cycle in the fourth quarter and the slow improvement of external demand are expected to promote a significant improvement in industrial production, while service consumption gradually approached the pre-epidemic stable growth center after three quarters of endogenous repair.
Second, policies such as the reduction of interest rates on existing housing loans, and the "recognition of housing without loans" in first-tier cities have been implemented, gradually achieving results and helping the bottom to stabilize. In addition, the effect of fiscal policies (such as accelerating the issuance of special bonds) that began to exert force in the third quarter is also expected to continue to show in the fourth quarter.
Third, if the follow-up stable growth policy still has potential space in the real estate field, if the current policy effect is not good, the policy may continue to increase; In addition, the proximity to Western traditional festivals, coupled with the recent resilience of the European and American economies, the gradual improvement of external demand is expected to drive exports upward.
Ping An Fund believes that the demand side is showing signs of bottoming out, and the subsequent continued stabilization and upward need to be repaired. Since the third quarter, PPI has taken the lead in bottoming out year-on-year, and the year-on-year negative growth rate has narrowed for two consecutive months, indicating that the price side of the demand side has shown certain signs of bottoming out, but finished product inventories are still in a downward trend, and the destocking stage has not been reversed. The introduction of a series of favorable policies has laid the foundation for the repair of domestic demand, and the risk of overseas recession has also eased, and the economic data in August has shown some signs of improvement from a month-on-month perspective, but the sustained demand side of the volume and price rise remains to be seen, and the confidence repair of domestic and foreign demand is still the key.
Growth stocks have become more cost-effective
Specific to the market style of the fourth quarter, Wells Fargo Fund pointed out that observing the performance of the main broad-based indexes in the fourth quarter after the holiday of the past year, it can be found that the median rise and fall of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index and the CSI 300 Index tends to be forward, 5.0% and 5.1% respectively, and the value style of the broader market may be worth looking forward to; From the perspective of industry, the median rise and fall of the consumer sector in the fourth quarter of the past year was 4.5%, leading other industry styles, followed by financial real estate. It is not difficult to see that the value style of the broader market deserves medium and long-term attention after the holiday, among which the consumer sector may perform.
For the valuation price-performance ratio, Sino Analytica Fund analyzed that the current stock and bond return spread is located around -2 standard deviations, the market is in a low area, with the improvement of economic data, market sentiment and valuation may be expected to gradually repair. The intensive announcement of real estate and capital market policies in August, coupled with the impact of domestic RRR cuts and the high volatility of the exchange rate, made the A-share broad market index bottom.
CCB Fund also believes that the current A-share stock and bond cost performance has reached a record high, taking the representative "Mao Index" and "Ning Index" of high-performing stocks as an example, the profit growth rate has remained relatively high, but the valuation has reached a relatively low level. "Valuations are compressed to the extreme, waiting for the economy to recover, boom investment is effective again, and sectors with high growth potential in the future can gain valuation repair flexibility."
CITIC Prudential Fund said that A-shares are currently in a historically low position, and growth stocks are almost at a historically cost-effective moment, and are undervalued globally. At present, there is no need to be too pessimistic about the equity market, and it is currently in the process of gradual weakening of bearish factors, the more bearish momentum is consumed, the more positive momentum is, and the subsequent reversal may be stronger than expected.
The thematic sector is still expected to deduce
In terms of specific sector layout, Yong Win Fund said that it can focus on two major areas: recovery and themes. Considering that it takes time to recast confidence, the process of market repair may be tortuous and slow, and it is expected that it may be difficult to form a sustained and stable main line at the industry level, which can take into account the two directions of recovery and theme. On the one hand, benefiting from the continuous economic recovery, the performance of food and beverages in consumption, home appliances and home appliances in the real estate chain is supported, in addition, the absolute valuation bottom of medicine and biology and negative events are coming to an end, and it is expected to usher in a cyclical bottom, and the "predicament reversal" may be expected; On the other hand, liquidity in the fourth quarter is still loose, coupled with the performance vacuum period from November to December, thematic sectors are still expected to deduce, and growth opportunities can be sought from the medium and micro levels, focusing on Huawei chain, AI, data elements, satellite Internet and other directions.
In addition, Ping An Fund believes that the economy is still good in the long run, but the confidence path may have twists and turns, and the phased game between domestic economic recovery and overseas liquidity turning expectations is still inevitable, and it is recommended to balance the rotation allocation: first, pro-cyclical sectors: resource goods + real estate chain (non-real estate) + big finance (banking, insurance); Second, high-quality growth sectors: data elements (operators), AI (computing power, optical modules), Huawei technology industry chain (semiconductors, smartphones, intelligent driving, cloud computing); The third is to stabilize the high-dividend sector: the cost performance of high-dividend assets is still at a high level, and the economic substance is dominant in stages before stabilizing.
Sino Analytica Fund said that consumer electronics are expected to rebound periodically, and the semiconductor domestic chain will continue to accelerate evolution. After nearly a year of full adjustment of consumer chips related to traditional demand such as mobile phones, the stock price has fully reflected pessimistic expectations, and the release of new phones by Huawei and Apple has driven the recovery of demand for consumer electronics such as mobile phones.
Sino Analytica Fund specifically analyzed that according to public information and industry exchanges, the market demand for computers has been sorted out and prepared in the first half of the year, and orders have begun to land in the third quarter, while the industry development in the next year has entered an accelerated period, and it remains optimistic for the fourth quarter and next year. After the adjustment of AI computing power, large models and other sectors, the high growth of fundamentals in the second half of the year is expected to be realized.
Responsible editor: Tao Jiyan | Reviewed: Li Zhen | Supervisor: Wan Junwei
(Source: Brokerage China)