In September, the housing company "stabilized"

The end of the "Golden Nine" of real estate, due to favorable policies and the increase in the enthusiasm of housing enterprises, the sales data of housing enterprises changed the downward momentum in July and August, and there seems to be a faint "hope".

According to Clarion data, in September 2023, the sales volume of the top 100 real estate enterprises in China reached 404.27 billion yuan in September, an increase of 17.9% month-on-month, and the month-on-month increase was higher than the same period last year.

From the perspective of corporate performance, the rebound of some housing enterprises is more obvious.

In September, more than 600 of the top 100 real estate companies achieved month-on-month growth. Among them, 32 companies increased between 0% and 30% month-on-month, and 29 companies increased by more than 30% month-on-month. The performance of some leading real estate enterprises increased by more than 60% month-on-month, such as China Jinmao, Huafa Shares, Greenland Holdings, Dahua Group, Shoukai Shares, etc.

The recovery of housing enterprises is inseparable from the decline in housing prices. According to the China Index Research Institute, in September, the national property market favorable policies were intensively introduced, developers actively grasped the policy window period and the key nodes of the "Golden Nine Silver Ten", accelerated the pace of pushing, driven by the entry of high-quality improvement projects in some cities, and the prices of new residential buildings in 100 cities stabilized in September.

In September this year, the average price of new residential buildings in 100 cities across the country was 16,184 yuan / square meter, turning from a decline to an increase of 0.05%; The year-on-year decline narrowed to 0.10%.

However, it should also be seen that the year-on-year data is still negative: the monthly performance of the top 100 housing companies decreased by 29.2% year-on-year, and the decline remained high. From January to September, the sales amount of the top 100 real estate enterprises was 4.15674 billion yuan, down 11% year-on-year.

In September, the number of enterprises with a year-on-year decrease in monthly performance exceeded 70%, and the cumulative performance decreased year-on-year reached nearly 60%.

In terms of quarters, the performance scale of the top 100 housing companies in the first three quarters of this year has remained at a historical low. Since July, the cumulative performance growth rate has turned from positive to negative, and the quarterly performance scale in the third quarter decreased by 32.1% year-on-year, and was significantly lower than that in the first and second quarters.

Kerry said that on the whole, the current purchasing power of the demand side is still insufficient, industry expectations and confidence are also generally sluggish, and the recovery momentum of the property market is slowing down. Recently, although the policy level has released favorable and there are certain repair expectations, the enthusiasm of Jinjiu real estate enterprises to push the market has also increased, but the pressure of enterprise sales and payment collection is still greater. In the fourth quarter, housing enterprises still need to strengthen supply and marketing efforts to boost transactions.

Supply: Differentiation of first-, second- and third-tier cities

From the supply side, the September data diverged according to the city's energy level.

In September, the supply of key 30 cities across the country increased by 17% month-on-month, and the transaction volume increased slightly by 3% month-on-month, but decreased by 23% year-on-year. In the first nine months, the cumulative supply fell by 11% year-on-year, and the cumulative year-on-year increase in transaction volume narrowed by 4 percentage points to 2%.

Among them, first-tier cities have rebounded in short-term popularity due to policy stimulus.

In September, the overall transaction volume of first-tier cities was 2.12 million square meters, an increase of 16% month-on-month, but still a year-on-year decrease of 33%, and the cumulative transaction volume in the first three quarters was unchanged from last year.

Among the first-tier cities, the Beijing and Shanghai markets remained hot, and the landing of Shanghai's "housing without loans" + the recovery of supply drove the transaction volume as scheduled, up 15% month-on-month, but the cumulative year-on-year decline continued to expand to 6%. Guangzhou rebounded from a low level, and with the implementation of the new policy, project visits and subscriptions rebounded steadily, and the transaction volume increased by 26% month-on-month.

Second- and third-tier cities are unlikely to improve, and the transaction data is basically the same as the previous month: 9.93 million square meters were transacted in September, down 21% year-on-year, and the cumulative year-on-year increase in the first three quarters narrowed to 3%.

Kerry said that the cities that rose month-on-month can be broadly divided into the following categories:

First, the market is relatively stable, and inland cities such as Xi'an and Changsha have their own market, and the trading volume has increased steadily with the improvement of market concentration.

Second, the core second-tier cities with deep adjustment and good fundamentals in the early stage, typical representatives of Nanjing, Wuhan, Ningbo, Tianjin, Chongqing, etc. ushered in a phased increase, as some projects increased discounts to promote price for volume, and the transaction turned positive month-on-month.

Third, the performance of some third- and fourth-tier cities is also remarkable, with Foshan, Wuxi, Dongguan, Jiaxing and other low-level transactions rebounding in September, but the cumulative value in the first three quarters was still negative year-on-year.

With the recovery of the enthusiasm of real estate enterprises "Golden Nine", cities in various places have successively introduced new policies, and the overall transaction has rebounded slightly.

Kerry believes that some micro-project levels have shown signs of recovery such as visits and subscription recovery, and it is predicted that in October, a slight increase in supply is a high probability event, and the transaction may continue the recovery trend.