According to the analysis and judgment of relevant parties organized by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the current total supply of "vegetable basket" products is sufficient, and the price fluctuations are basically normal, and it is expected that the production base of "vegetable basket" products during the Mid-Autumn Festival National Day will be good, the market supply is guaranteed, and the price is expected to be stable.
At present, the total supply of the "vegetable basket" market is sufficient
At present, the total supply of "vegetable basket" products is sufficient, and the price fluctuates slightly, which is generally lower than the same period last year.
In August, the national "200 Index of Wholesale Prices of 'Vegetable Basket' Products" was 120.23 (100 in 2015), up 1.24 points from the previous month and 3.64 points lower than the same period last year; it was 120.40 in the 38th week (September 18-September 24, 2023, the same below), down 0.58 points from the previous week and 7.89 points lower than the same period last year.
Pork prices stabilized after rebounding. Since mid-to-late July, driven by the recovery of consumption, as well as the superposition of factors such as the long-term loss of farmers, the impact of heavy rainfall on transportation, and the start of frozen meat storage and storage, pork prices have rebounded significantly after a continuous decline and have become basically stable in the near future.
In August, the national average wholesale price of pork was 22.56 yuan per kilogram, up 17.8% month-on-month and 22.5% lower than the same period last year. From the perspective of weekly prices, the wholesale price of pork fell to a low of 18.89 yuan per kilogram in the 28th week (July 10-July 16) this year, and then continued to rise to 22.78 yuan per kilogram in the 32nd week (August 7-August 13), and fell slightly recently. In the 38th week, the weekly average price of pork wholesale market was 22.26 yuan per kilogram, down 0.4% month-on-month and 28.3% lower than the same period last year.
The prices of beef, poultry and eggs have risen steadily. Driven by the rise in pork prices, the opening of schools to drive consumption, high temperatures and other adverse weather, the price of livestock and poultry products has turned from a continuous decline in the first half of the year to a steady increase.
In August, the average wholesale price of beef was 71.14 yuan per kilogram, up 0.1% month-on-month and 7.3% lower than the same period last year; The average wholesale price of white stripe chicken was 18.19 yuan per kilogram, up 2.7% from the previous month and 3.5% lower than the same period last year; The purchase price of fresh milk in the province of dairy owners was 3.76 yuan per kilogram, unchanged from the previous month and down 8.7% year-on-year; The average monthly wholesale price of eggs was 11.13 yuan per kilogram, up 14.7% month-on-month and 4.3% higher than the same period last year. Egg prices increased more month-on-month, mainly due to the decline in egg production rate and egg weight of laying hens in the "rest period".
From the perspective of weekly prices, the prices of livestock and poultry products have fluctuated slightly since September. In the 38th week, the wholesale prices of beef, poultry and eggs were 72.31 yuan, 18.07 yuan and 11.67 yuan per kilogram, up 0.7%, down 0.3% and 0.1% respectively.
Vegetable prices rise, fruit prices fall, and seasonal fluctuations are obvious. Every year in July and August vegetable supply in the "summer light" period, seasonal origin change and variety change affect the supply of local vegetables, vegetable prices generally show a seasonal upward trend, this year typhoons frequently affect vegetable production, harvesting and transportation, vegetable transportation and preservation costs increase, prices rise in stages. Summer seasonal fruits such as peaches, watermelons, honeydew melons, etc. are on the market in large quantities, and fruit prices continue to fall seasonally.
In August, the national average wholesale price of 28 kinds of vegetables monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 4.99 yuan per kilogram, up 2.2% month-on-month, 4.8% year-on-year, and 7.3% higher than the average of the same period in the past three years; The average wholesale price of the six fruits under key monitoring was 7.11 yuan per kilogram, down 5.8% month-on-month and up 4.1% year-on-year.
From the perspective of weekly prices, since September, the prices of vegetables and fruits have fallen slightly. In the 38th week, the average wholesale prices of vegetables and fruits were 5.02 yuan and 6.66 yuan per kilogram, down 1.2% and 0.7% respectively.
Prices of aquatic products were flat and slightly increased. Purchases and sales in the domestic market were generally stable, and prices increased slightly.
In August, the average wholesale price of aquatic products was 23.43 yuan per kilogram, up 1.0% month-on-month and 0.4% year-on-year, and the average daily trading volume of aquatic products in the 68 wholesale markets monitored was 4,594 tons, an increase of 0.9% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 10.0%.
From the perspective of weekly prices, the price of aquatic products has fluctuated slightly since September. In the 38th week, the average wholesale price of aquatic products was 24.15 yuan per kilogram, up 0.7% from the previous month.
It is expected to be during the National Day of the Mid-Autumn Festival this year
The "vegetable basket" market supply is guaranteed
The overall price is mainly stable
From the perspective of the later situation, the foundation for stable production and supply of key products of "vegetable basket" is good, and it is expected that the supply of the "vegetable basket" market will be guaranteed during the National Day of the Mid-Autumn Festival this year, and the overall price will be stable.
Pig production capacity is abundant, and prices do not have a basis for a big increase. At the end of August, the number of breeding sows was 42.41 million, equivalent to 103.4% of the normal holdings, and the production capacity was still at a high level. From January to August, the total number of pig slaughtering enterprises above designated size was 214.71 million, an increase of 13.2% year-on-year.
It is expected that the supply of live pigs in September and October will increase steadily, coupled with the high inventory of frozen pork in some slaughtering enterprises, the supply of pork market in the later period is still relatively loose, which can effectively meet the demand for the festival, and the price will be driven by consumption or will rise in stages, but a sharp rise is unlikely.
Beef and mutton, poultry and egg prices will fluctuate slightly. At the end of the second quarter, the national cattle inventory was 105.04 million, an increase of 2.3% month-on-month and 3.9% year-on-year; The national sheep inventory was 333.67 million, an increase of 0.6% month-on-month and 0.9% year-on-year. With the arrival of the peak season for cattle and sheep, the supply of beef and mutton in various places has generally increased. According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, from January to July, the output of fresh milk at the milk station increased by 6.6% year-on-year. The fourth quarter will enter the peak milk season, and the overall supply of milk is still oversupply.
At the end of the second quarter, the national poultry inventory was 6.32 billion, an increase of 3.3% month-on-month and 3.5% year-on-year. Recently, affected by factors such as the increase in breeding efficiency, the enthusiasm of broiler farms to replenish the stock has increased, and it is expected that the supply of chicken will increase in the later period. As the weather cools, the laying hen "rest period" ends, egg production begins to increase, and some new chickens enter the production period, and the egg supply capacity recovers quickly. It is expected that during the Mid-Autumn Festival National Day, the supply of livestock and poultry products will be sufficient, and prices will rise and fall, maintaining a slight fluctuation trend.
Vegetable and fruit prices will remain seasonally volatile. According to the dispatch of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the current vegetable field area in the country is 104.46 million mu, an increase of 1.56 million mu over the same period last year. After autumn, natural disasters in most parts of the country will decrease, the temperature is suitable, vegetable output will generally increase, autumn stubble dew vegetables in the Huang-Huai-Hai area, Yangtze River Basin and other major producing areas will gradually usher in the peak of production, the market supply is sufficient, and vegetable prices are expected to show a seasonal downward trend according to the perennial law.
In recent years, the mainland fruit area has been at a historical high, and the weather in the main producing areas this year is generally normal, with a large number of apples, pears, citrus and other bulk fruits on the market, residents during the Mid-Autumn Festival National Day "fruit plate" varieties, sufficient quantity, is expected to continue to fall.
Prices of aquatic products are expected to be basically stable. In September, the marine fishing moratorium in the waters around the mainland will be completed, and the supply of marine fishing products such as pike crabs will increase significantly. On August 24, Japan launched the discharge of nuclear sewage from Fukushima, and the mainland suspended the import of Japanese aquatic products, due to the small proportion of aquatic products imported from Japan in domestic imports (in 2022, the mainland imported 161,200 tons of aquatic products from Japan, accounting for 2.5% of the total mainland aquatic product imports), it is expected that the suspension policy will not significantly affect the domestic market supply.
From the perspective of demand, the Mid-Autumn Festival National Day holiday is approaching, and consumption such as catering and tourism has ushered in a peak, which will drive the demand for aquatic products to increase. It is expected that the supply and demand of aquatic products will be strong during the festival, and the price will remain basically stable.
Original title: It is expected that the "vegetable basket" market during the Mid-Autumn Festival National Day will be sufficient and stable
Source: Department of Market and Information Technology, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs