During the two-holiday holiday, the population moves "in the crowd", and big data predicts the time of the first traffic peak

Approaching the Mid-Autumn Festival National Day holiday, the national travel demand is gradually booming.

According to data from major travel platforms, the popularity of travel during the Mid-Autumn Festival National Day holiday this year is expected to be the highest in recent years, and travel platforms will also usher in business peaks.

September 29 ushered in the peak of travel

According to the "2023 November Holiday Travel Forecast Report" released by Baidu, the popularity of November travel this year is expected to be the highest in recent years, and the total number of population migration may exceed 200% last year. In addition, the traffic on the national highway will increase by 80% compared with usual, and the congestion situation will increase significantly, and the peak congestion is expected to appear at about 10 am on September 29.

AutoNavi "2023 Mid-Autumn Festival National Day Holiday Travel Forecast Report" shows that due to the impact of high-speed free passage and concentrated travel demand, it is expected that from 15:00 on September 28, 2023, the pressure of high-speed traffic across the country will gradually increase, and there will be a small peak of short-term travel from 21:00 on September 28 to 2:00 on September 29, and 9:00-12:00 on September 29 is the peak period of high-speed outbound congestion, and the peak will occur from 10:00 to 11:00.

Following the explosive growth in the popularity of population migration during this year's May Day holiday, Baidu predicts that the popularity of population migration in November this year will also become the highest in recent years. The data shows that the total number of population migration during the November holiday in 2023 is expected to increase by more than 200% compared with 2022, and the enthusiasm of national travel has recovered significantly.

Not only that, due to the impact of the merger of the "double festival", Baidu predicts that some people will travel "on vacation", and the national migration enthusiasm will rise in advance on September 27, and rise to the highest point on the first day of the holiday on September 29, which is also the day of the Mid-Autumn Festival. Compared with 2022, the population migration trend during this year's November holiday shows the characteristics of large total amount and long duration. According to Baidu's report, the peak of high-speed congestion nationwide is expected to occur between 10 and 11 a.m. on September 29, the day of the Mid-Autumn Festival. The overall congestion level of highways in the country during the November holiday increased by more than 90% compared with last year, setting a record for the same period in recent years. From the fourth day of the holiday, the return traffic is expected to increase, and there will be a peak of national highway congestion on October 2 and October 3.

At the same time, the pressure on highway traffic across the country has increased accordingly. Taking into account factors such as the extension of holidays and the exemption of tolls on expressways across the country, Baidu predicts that the overall traffic flow of expressways during the November holiday in 2023 will increase by 80% compared with usual, and increase by 22% and 69% respectively compared with 2021 and 2022.

The peak of orders placed on travel platforms is even earlier. Dida Hitchhiker Big Data predicts that this year's Mid-Autumn Festival National Day long holiday, it is expected that the peak day of order placement and departure peak day of the outbound trip will be September 28, that is, the day before the holiday, two days earlier than September 30, 2022. Meanwhile, September 27 and September 29 will be the two sub-peaks. The peak day for return orders for this year's long holiday is expected to be October 5, and the peak day for return departure is October 6. This means that most users have the habit of booking their trip a day in advance.

Didi Chuxing data predicts that travel demand during the Mid-Autumn Festival National Day holiday in 2023 will increase by nearly 80% year-on-year. September 28 (the last working day before the holiday), September 29 (the first day of the holiday) and September 30 (the first day after the Mid-Autumn Festival) will be the three days with the highest travel demand.

Increased demand for cross-city travel

In addition to the increase in high-speed traffic, the travel platform will also usher in the peak season. With the increase in demand for cross-city travel, orders for ride-hailing, ride-hailing, and rental cars have all increased.

Haro predicts that from September 28 to October 1, the country will usher in a number of travel peaks, and the booking volume of travel business including car rental, hitchhiking, taxi hailing and electric car rental will grow rapidly during the National Day period, and is expected to break the annual peak of the business, of which the demand for hitchhiking will hit a five-year high.

According to data provided by HelloRide, since the receipt of orders on September 1, the cumulative number of travel bookings for the November holiday has reached 2.5 million, once again hitting a new high in five years. Among them, 1.5 million people traveled across the city by hitchhiker alone.

Haro expects that the demand for hitchhikers will double this year, and it is expected to reach the first peak of demand on September 28, and the return peak will occur on October 5. At the same time, there may be multiple peaks in travel demand during the November period, and on September 30 and October 1, respectively, the demand for medium- and long-distance travel is expected to increase by more than 85%.

Dida data shows that during this year's Mid-Autumn Festival National Day long holiday, cross-city hitchhiker travel is mainly short and medium-distance, mainly divided into three distance intervals of 50-100km, 100-200km and 200-300km, and the proportion of cross-city orders in the above ranges is 27%, 34% and 15%.

In addition, according to the big data forecast of Dida Hitchhiker, during the National Day of the Mid-Autumn Festival this year, the demand for hitchhikers will increase significantly compared with last year, of which the peak of cross-city hitchhiker passengers' orders will increase by more than 40% compared with the peak of orders placed during the 2022 National Day holiday. In addition, from the perspective of travel conditions, many users choose to travel with pets. Dida expects that more than 110,000 pets will ride with their owners during the Mid-Autumn Festival National Day holiday this year, visiting relatives and friends.

Didi expects that the demand for hitchhiking during the Mid-Autumn Festival National Day holiday will increase by more than 150% year-on-year, and it is expected that Hangzhou, Wuhan and Nanjing will become popular departure cities for hitchhiking, and cities such as Chengdu, Shijiazhuang and Chongqing will become high-frequency destination cities. In the case of hitchhiking cross-city orders, 100-200 kilometers will be the most frequent mileage range for users.

In terms of ride-hailing, Didi expects that Beijing, Shanghai, Nanjing, Suzhou, Tianjin, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Xi'an, Hangzhou and other tourist cities will remain popular for travel, and the travel demand of some cities may increase by nearly 200% compared with before the holiday. In addition to popular attractions, the relaxation and filmed peripheral tours and outings will also continue the popularity of the previous holiday, and the proportion of long-distance orders of more than 30 kilometers will be significantly higher than before the holiday. From the perspective of driver experience, many drivers have already felt the hot demand for travel this holiday. Master Wang, a ride-hailing driver, told the first financial reporter, "Since the 25th, I have received many orders to go to the train station, all of which are large orders. Master Wang said that because it is the peak season, he will choose to continue working on holidays, and the platform also actively encourages drivers to take orders.

In addition to hitchhiking, many consumers also chose self-driving tours, which led to the growth of the car rental business. According to Haro Car Rental's data, the number of car rental bookings during the National Day this year increased by 560% year-on-year, of which long-term lease orders accounted for more than 40% (5-10 days); There are also 14% of users who feel that 8 days of self-driving is not enough to play, and they have taken annual leave, and the rental period is more than 8 days. The western region is the most popular, with Sichuan, Xinjiang and Yunnan self-driving car bookings booming, and Chengdu, Urumqi and Kunming increasing by 6 times, 10 times and 8 times year-on-year.

Didi expects that car rental orders during the holiday period will increase by more than 30% compared with before the holiday, and orders from first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen will increase by more and more, of which orders with a car rental cycle of 3-4 days account for nearly half.