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The Russian Black Sea Fleet faces great challenges in the conflict in Ukraine, and its ships continue to weaken. Recently, Russian troops carried out large-scale air strikes on Ukrainian-controlled Odessa, causing serious damage. According to the Ukrainian military, the attack caused serious damage to Odessa port facilities, and even led to the almost destruction of a maritime terminal and the damage to a granary. CNN said that the attack was a response of the Russian army to the recent attack of the Ukrainian army on the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Due to the frequent attacks of the Russian Black Sea Fleet by the Ukrainian army, its future in the conflict in Ukraine has attracted much attention.
The frequent joint strikes launched by the Ukrainian army pose a serious threat to the Russian Black Sea Fleet. According to the analysis of the US Business Insider website, although the Russian Black Sea Fleet is the most powerful maritime force in the Black Sea region, it is constantly losing blood under the continuous attacks of the Ukrainian army. Initially, the Black Sea Fleet, with the missile cruiser "Moskva" as its core, quickly mastered sea supremacy over almost the entire Black Sea area, and at one time occupied Snake Island, which is only 140 kilometers from the port of Odessa. However, after the accidental sinking of the "Moskva", the Black Sea Fleet, which had lost its air defense umbrella, was forced to retreat to the eastern waters of the Black Sea, far from the Ukrainian control zone. In addition, with NATO intelligence support, Ukraine has launched frequent attacks on the Black Sea Fleet using drones, unmanned boats and cruise missiles. According to statistics from the American Power website, the Black Sea Fleet has already suffered serious losses of a number of ships, including the cruiser Moskva, several landing and patrol boats, and a conventional submarine of the "Kilo" class, which has sunk or been seriously damaged, while several small missile ships have also been damaged. This means that most of the ships of the Black Sea Fleet may have lost their combat capability.
The biggest dilemma facing the Russian Black Sea Fleet at present is that it cannot grasp peripheral intelligence and can only passively defend. According to Business Insider, NATO will dispatch many types of reconnaissance platforms every day to conduct all-round intelligence collection in the Black Sea region and provide these key battlefield data to the Ukrainian military as soon as possible. In contrast, there is a lack of real-time intelligence exchange between the units of the Russian Aerospace Forces deployed in Crimea and the Black Sea Fleet, and even after repeated attacks, the air defense network of different Russian units has not been established. This allowed the Ukrainian army to grasp the route of the Russian patrol ships in advance and carefully organize suicide unmanned boats to launch raids. At the same time, the Black Sea Fleet faces challenges in the ability to maintain ships. The Ukrainian military seriously damaged the dock in Sevastopol by missile strikes, which made it impossible for the ships of the Black Sea Fleet to be repaired in time, and the dock itself was damaged. Thus, the combat effectiveness of the Black Sea Fleet may be seriously weakened.
Despite such a grim situation, the Russian army has not given up on finding a solution. The Ukrainian military has received comprehensive intelligence support from NATO, making it far superior to the Russian army in battlefield situational awareness. However, the Russian army is seeking to improve its technical means in response to the Ukrainian attack. Recently, Rostec delivered an improved version of the A-50U long-range AWACS aircraft to the Aerospace Forces. The AWACS can track up to 300 air targets and even detect small drones. In addition, the cruise missiles used by the Ukrainian army have a radar stealth design and a ground-to-ground flight mode, making them difficult to detect by ground-deployed long-range air defense systems. Therefore, the Russian army is thinking about how to close these technological gaps.
In the conflict since the outbreak of the Crimean crisis, the position of the Russian Black Sea Fleet has been seriously shaken. The frequent attacks of the Ukrainian army have seriously weakened the combat power of its ships, and the lack of peripheral intelligence and ship maintenance capabilities has further highlighted the plight of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Nevertheless, the Russian army has not given up, but is trying to improve technical means to counter the Ukrainian attack. However, it is unclear whether the situation can be truly reversed. For the outside world, paying attention to the future path of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and whether Ukraine can continue to use its technological superiority to launch frequent attacks on it will become a topic worth watching.