Recently, a fierce battle has been set off on the international stage for rare mineral resources and high-tech raw materials. Behind this situation lies a complex international political and economic struggle. To understand this context, let's review recent events and context.
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China's Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs recently issued an Announcement on Export Control of Gallium and Germanium-related Items. This move has caused great repercussions on the international stage. The reason why China took this measure is, on the one hand, to resist the blockade and suppression of China by the United States and Western countries in the field of semiconductors and other high-tech fields, and on the other hand, to protect its own interests from the threat of cooperation between the United States and other countries and China's neighboring countries to develop rare mineral resources.
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China's position in the semiconductor market is unshakable. According to statistics, China's native gallium production accounted for 90% of global production in 2022, and 70.22% of germanium metal production also came from China. These two materials are essential for high-tech industries, such as gallium arsenide used in LEDs and RF devices, and gallium nitride is expected to become a key material for third-generation semiconductors. At the same time, germanium is also widely used in the fields of solar photovoltaic, infrared optics and polymerization catalysts. If China restricts exports, the international market will face a short-term supply shortage and price surge.
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The rare earth processing capacity of Western countries is relatively weak and it is difficult to meet their own needs. The rare earth separation and smelting process requires a large number of chemical reagents, which may cause pollution to the environment. Therefore, Western countries prefer to import rare earths directly from China. In fact, by 2020, China has mastered 54% of the world's rare earth mining capacity and 85% of rare earth refining capacity.
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If China really implements export controls, the international price of rare earth resources will rise sharply, and the supply will be seriously insufficient. In addition, the opening of new mining and processing bases by Western countries in places such as Australia, Canada and Mongolia will also be hindered. This will be a serious challenge to their scientific and technological development process. Even if Japan files a lawsuit with the WTO, China has a firmer environmental policy, so the impact of sanctions will not be great.
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While China is adopting an export control policy, Russia is also considering whether to adopt a similar policy. In his doctoral dissertation, Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the issue of mineral resources and Russia's economic development strategy. Putin believes that Russia has the richest mineral and raw material resources in the world, and it should be all in the hands of the government to maximize its benefits. According to the US Geological Survey, the value of natural minerals in Russia is estimated to be as high as $75 trillion. This makes Russia one of the world's leading suppliers of metals such as aluminum, titanium, palladium and nickel.
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In addition to its strong presence in the metals sector, Russia is also investing in the development of lithium and uranium mines in the Arctic, as well as expanding the mining of gold, diamonds, cobalt and other metals in Africa. By controlling these mineral resources, Russia is working to translate them into political, economic, and diplomatic influence. This move will provide Russia and China with more leverage for cooperation, giving them a favorable position in international competition.
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In the short term, if China and Russia work together to implement export controls, it will pose a serious challenge to the international production system centered on the United States and the West. The system is interdependent from raw materials to processing to manufactured goods and finance. If there is a problem with the underlying raw materials and processing links, even if the technology is advanced, it will be affected. China and Russia will have more bargaining chips to demand that the West lift the containment and sanctions, which will increase their negotiating strength.
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In the long run, we are entering an era of great power competition. The competition between emerging developing countries, represented by China, and old developed countries, represented by the United States, has become increasingly fierce. While most countries remain on the sidelines in the competition, they are in the country
In the face of international interests, they also began to realize that their status and destiny were closely linked. As a result, most countries are reluctant to take risks and prefer to side with the winners, supporting only whoever wins. China's countermeasures are not isolated, and at the same time, Russia is also a rare metal powerhouse with rich mineral resources.
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If China and Russia can cooperate in the field of rare mineral resources, it will mean that the international production system dominated by the United States and Western countries will face greater challenges. This cooperation will provide China and Russia with more leverage, help demand that the West lift the containment and sanctions, and make its influence in international affairs more prominent. Although China and Russia are still not comparable to the West in many fields, mastering a large number of resources and processing industrial chains is equivalent to directly grasping the development of many developed countries. Therefore, the outcome of the competition is not yet clear, and the future situation remains uncertain.
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In summary, the current battle on the international stage involves the supply of rare mineral resources and high-tech raw materials, as well as the complex interconnection of the international economic system. China's export control measures have set off a chain reaction, and Russia is considering a similar policy. If these two major countries with abundant resources can work together, it will have a profound impact on the international landscape. In the future, the competition between major powers will become more intense, and who can use resources and strategies more skillfully will become a key player in international affairs. Therefore, we need to closely follow the development of this situation in order to better understand and respond to changes in international politics and economy.