Top 10 brokerage strategies: the bottom of the market is consolidating Holding stocks for the holiday is the best choice
CITIC Securities: There is still room for follow-up policies The bottom of the market is consolidating, and the long holiday is an important layout point
After a series of policies take effect, there is still room for follow-up policies, and the inflection point of the domestic economy is gradually clear, and data will be continuously verified; The disturbance of the external strong dollar has weakened, the expectation of the RMB exchange rate has stabilized, and the market reaction has blunted; The rapid contraction of market transactions indicates that the selling digestion is nearing the end, the bottom of the market is consolidating, and the long holiday before and after is an important layout time, it is recommended to adhere to the pro-cyclical, technology, white horse three-stage strategic layout. First of all, under the combined force of a series of policies that have been implemented, the inflection point of domestic economic repair will continue to be verified by data, and follow-up policies still have room for strength, until the trend of economic weakness and expected weakening is completely reversed, and its inflection point will gradually be clear and will lay the foundation for the steady repair of market confidence. Secondly, the deterioration of the U.S. bond supply and demand pattern has pushed up long-end interest rates in the United States, U.S. stocks are prone to fall and difficult to rise, the dollar index has strengthened but the RMB exchange rate is expected to remain stable, the response of A-shares to external disturbances has also blunted, and the establishment of an economic field working group between China and the United States will also help boost economic and market confidence. Finally, the market volume before the long holiday shrinks rapidly, all kinds of funds selling digestion is nearing the end, the over-the-counter funds remain on the sidelines during the data verification period, with the disclosure of the data after the holiday, the willingness to buy stocks will be significantly enhanced, and the current market bottom is consolidating.
China-Thailand strategy: how to view the market prospects after the continuous efforts of domestic policies
In the short term, although the multiple positives we have discussed earlier have all landed, we still tend to prefer that the market rally is not over in the short term, and accordingly, we should pay attention to the reverse allocation at the stage highs. From the perspective of sentiment indicators, the current market sentiment is close to freezing again, but stock index futures generally rose and expanded last week. It is expected that the market will rebound around the end of the Fed's interest rate hike and the expectation of the landing of the leveling fund, so it seems that it is necessary to pay attention to the performance of non-banking sectors such as insurance. As far as the second half of the year is concerned, the overall focus is still on defense (focusing on the allocation of central enterprise public utilities), taking into account the theme (technology rotation: Huawei, lithography machine and other domestic substitutions or the main line of technology stocks in the second half of the year, but pay attention to the rhythm), financial stocks focus on insurance, and the thematic opportunities to focus on building materials in the cycle remain unchanged.
Shenwan Hongyuan strategy: the rebound confirms that it is still a real shock market
Friday's oversold rally confirmed our judgment of a "truly volatile market." High cost performance is the basis for the rebound, and there is no need to be overly optimistic about the effect of subsequent policies. The market has basic confidence in the follow-up policy catalysis: the exchange rate and A-shares will be expected to stabilize, and there are still policy expectations for activating the capital market, resolving local debt risks, and increasing the follow-up steady growth. In the cost-effective area, clues of over-bearish rebound are prone to appear. The sustainability of the rebound still depends on the verification of the policy effect, but the current expectation of the sustainability of the policy effect is still not high: the debt reduction will definitely have a significant impact in the medium term, but at this stage, the high interest rate overseas will limit the domestic interest rate reduction process, and will also limit the systematic spread of the debt. At a time when overseas risk appetite is under pressure, the short-term effect of expanding the opening up of A-shares to the outside world may be limited. Stabilizing the expectations of the A-share market may only be a factor to maintain a volatile market, and the upward breakthrough of A-shares still requires the cooperation of fundamentals and other policy stimuli.
Centaline strategy: A-shares bottoming out and rebounding In the future, the stock index is generally expected to maintain a volatile pattern
At present, the average price-earnings ratios of the Shanghai Composite Index and ChiNext Index are 12.35 times and 32.97 times respectively, which are below the median level in the past three years, and the market valuation is still in a low area, suitable for medium and long-term layout. The Politburo meeting pointed out that it is necessary to activate the capital market and boost investor confidence. Adapt to the new situation of major changes in the supply and demand relationship in the mainland real estate market, and adjust and optimize real estate policies in a timely manner. The pace of domestic economic recovery slowed down in the second quarter, but the mid-year Politburo meeting was of great significance to the setting of the tone of the real estate and capital markets, and the relevant departments quickly implemented it, and reforms will be carried out on the financing, investment and trading sides. In the future, the stock index is generally expected to maintain a volatile pattern, while still paying close attention to changes in policy, capital and external factors. We recommend investors to focus on investment opportunities in communication equipment, software, Internet and financial industries in the short term.
Industrial Securities Strategy: The market has ushered in the dawn of repair Waiting for quantitative change to qualitative change
Recently, with the acceleration of policy protection, the stabilization and recovery of fundamentals, and the improvement of micro capital supply and demand, the market has ushered in the dawn of repair. Standing at the current bottom area, whether from the perspective of win rate or odds, it is possible to remain optimistic and wait for the times to change. Subsequently, with the emergence of more signals and catalysts, the market is expected to change from quantity to quality in the fourth quarter, come out of the bottom, and usher in repair. In terms of allocation, focus on three major directions: 1) the "118 subdivided industries prosperity research framework" suggests that the prosperity margin is good, and at the same time benefit from the upstream cycle driven by policy easing; 2) continue to be strategically optimistic about semiconductors that resonate with three cycles and are expected to reverse at the bottom; 3) Continue to pay attention to low-volatility dividend assets in the medium and long term.
Western Strategy: Pre-holiday Reduction Is Approaching the Extreme The time for strategic layout has arrived
Historically, the A-share market before the National Day holiday often has a pattern of tightening market liquidity and shrinking trading volume, and based on the data of the past 10 years, the trading volume in the week before the National Day tends to shrink to about 60% of the end of August (the first 20 trading days). The daily turnover from Wednesday to Thursday this week has reached less than 600 billion yuan, basically reaching about 60% of the trillion turnover at the end of August. We believe that the contraction in volume caused by seasonal effects is close to the extreme, but the full recovery of volume still needs to wait until after the National Day holiday, and it is still at the point of strategic layout. With the expected reversal of Sino-US relations and the approaching valuation switch in the fourth quarter, traditional foreign-funded heavy industries (pharmaceutical, financial, liquor, etc.) are expected to usher in a return, and the short-term overshoot of new energy and AI sectors is also expected to usher in a stage rebound; As overseas energy prices continue to rise, there are still opportunities for cyclical industries such as chemicals, coal, nonferrous metals, and steel, and in the medium term, pro-cyclical industries represented by the real estate chain (home appliances, building materials, light industry, construction machinery, real estate) are still important investment lines.
People's livelihood strategy: the rebound has come to choose the right direction
Catalyzed by a series of favorable factors such as the establishment of the economic field working group between China and the United States, the launch of Copilot by Microsoft, and the pullback of overseas tightening transactions from the extreme, A-shares rose sharply on Friday. The current repair of domestic economic fundamentals forms the basis for the continued rally in the market: the recently released August economic indicators are mostly better than market expectations and July levels. If the forward exchange rate implied by the difference between gold and the internal and external prices is used as an observation indicator, it can also be found that the moment when investors are most pessimistic about economic fundamentals has passed. The simultaneous resonance of multiple factors has led to a broad rally in the stock market, but the rebound always makes investors think of the need to "switch", and the correlation between these two propositions is that the more multifactor-driven the market, the more critical it is to distinguish between the core driver of sustainability and the direction of least resistance. At the same time, preparing for the next scenario is still the core of the configuration now.
Monarch Strategy: Bottom Rally Opportunities in trading stocks with good structures and large divergence of expectations
Shock the bottom area to grasp the trading rebound. The market closed slightly higher this week but the overall volatility was large, investor trading activity declined, and the average daily turnover of the two markets approached the low of October 22. We believe that the pressure on A-shares this week is mainly from overseas, and the Fed suspended interest rate hikes in September as scheduled, but the upward revision of economic growth and the increase in the 24-year policy rate made the market expect that global high interest rates will remain longer, and the rapid rise in US bond interest rates suppresses the performance of global risk assets. It can be found that the key markets around the world have seen a relatively large retracement this week, while some investors still blame the domestic economic policy environment for the market correction, and the overly pessimistic expectations combined with the pre-holiday risk aversion have caused the market trading willingness to slump. For the future market, we believe that the index is still dominated by volatile markets, but there are opportunities for rebound: 1) Domestically, stock prices have once again entered the bottom area, and the market has expectations for incremental economic policies and market policies; 2) Overseas, the marginal impact of the expected interest rate hike on U.S. bond rates after the September FOMC meeting has weakened, and the promotion of Sino-US economic and financial cooperation is also expected to provide a friendly environment for the current transactional rebound.
Everbright Strategy: Holding shares for the holiday is the best choice The market performed well after the National Day
The post-November market has performed well, with a probability of rising more than 90% in the 5 trading days after the holiday. Wind All A generally performs better after the National Day holiday, with a probability of a successful start on the first day after the holiday from 2010 to 2022 as high as 69%, with an average increase of 0.7%. The probability of rising in the five trading days after the holiday was as high as 92%, with an average increase of 2.4%, only in 2018 it declined, and other years were all closing gains. The difference in the performance of A-shares before and after the holiday may be mainly related to changes in the market liquidity environment. Since the demand for funds during the November long holiday is often large, before the holiday, some investors in the market may choose to withdraw funds from the stock market in stages, which will have a certain impact on market liquidity. However, after the holiday, as these funds return, the liquidity situation of the market will pick up. From the actual data, the turnover rate of A-shares before the National Day is significantly lower, while the turnover rate of the market after the National Day has increased significantly.
China Post strategy: has accumulated enough positive factors It is expected to continue the upward trend before the holiday
At present, enough positive factors have accumulated, and the upward trend is expected to continue before the holiday. Domestically, the effect of the real estate relaxation policy is gradually emerging, and the heat of the property market has improved; China Railway Group expects that the national railway will send a total of 190 million passengers during the National Day period, and the average daily number of passengers sent will increase by 15% compared with the "11th Day" in 19 years. Abroad, the Fed's September interest rate meeting is on hold as scheduled, the current round of interest rate hike cycle is expected to be lengthened, the timing of offshore dollar repatriation is delayed, and the pressure of selling northbound funds will be reduced. Industry allocation is looking for opportunities in rotation, and scientific and technological manufacturing represented by electronics, communications, and computers and upstream cyclical varieties of economic recovery represented by industrial metals, coal, petroleum and petrochemicals are expected to rise alternately.