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The recent fall of the leader of the Wagner Group has sparked widespread speculation and controversy. The complex political power struggle and international relations involved behind this incident are elusive. In this article, we will delve into the story behind this incident and reveal the mysteries and possibilities involved. Different from the traditional interpretation, we will examine this event from multiple angles, trying to restore more of the truth.
01
The head of Wagner died, the Americans could not say unsurprisingly, this is normal. The Americans are indeed telling the truth, and many people in the country have too much sentiment for Russian wishful thinking and have forgotten to seek truth from facts. The Americans could not have done this, for the simple reason that the Americans had the ability to orchestrate such an attack on Russian soil. The Ukrainian army has long counterattacked back, and in the previous battle of the Bakhmut meat grinder, the Ukrainian army fought very hard, and a large amount of living forces were consumed, and this hard bone was fought by Prigozhin with Wagner.
If the United States really had the ability to do such a thing, why didn't Prigozhin be killed at that time? On the other hand, we look at the inside of Russia, and on August 22, the news was released that the general of the Russian Aerospace Forces Surovikin was dismissed from his post and arranged for compulsory leave. When Prigozhin engaged in the mutiny, he drove straight into Moscow without encountering any obstacles on the way, and one of the biggest questions was what the Russian Aerospace Forces were doing at that time?
In order to prevent the rebellion of local princes, Russia only has the central control of the Aerospace Forces, and in modern warfare without the cover of the Aerospace Forces, the ground forces are completely looking for death. But whenever the Russian Aerospace Forces moved, Wagner and these people were all destroyed at that time, and nothing hit Moscow. So in June, it was rumored that Surovikin was likely to have an accident, and it turned out that it was really taken down a few days ago.
In July, the Russian media released news that Putin had arranged an heir for the Wagner Group, codenamed Grayhair. At the same time, Strelkov, a well-known Russian hawk, was arrested and imprisoned, he is the biggest destabilizing factor in the Russian people besides Prigozhin, and is likely to become the next Prigozhin. Prigozhin's good friends were pulled down, and then the heir was arranged again, what do you say this is preparing for?
The other day Prigozhin said that he was going to Africa, which means to be a rich man and enjoy his old age, which is absolutely impossible. At that time, Stalin and Trotsky had a conflict, and then Stalin chased and killed half the world, and forced Trotsky to be killed in Mexico, thousands of miles away.
The Russian political tradition is such that once someone challenges the authority of the political strongman, either the political strongman is pulled down or the challenger dies. In short, both sides must die one, and the emperor can only have one person.
02
Prigozhin's biggest problem is that he doesn't want to rebel half of it, in fact, how can there be a way back for this kind of thing? Judging by Prigozhin's behavior, he is a man who has the ability to get things done, but he does not have much of a big picture. In terms of fighting, he can take the lead in fighting tough battles. But when it comes to politics, he's a complete jerk.
First of all, he constantly had conflicts with the Russian Ministry of Defense during the war, and there will definitely be contradictions between private armed forces and regular troops, which is also what strongman politics wants to see, so that the two sides can balance each other. But Prigozhin apparently did not understand the situation, and he constantly made this contradiction public and put it on Russian social media. The really smart thing to do would be to present these contradictions to Putin and make him the arbiter. At the same time, we must realize that this kind of fighting and unbreakable situation is what Putin wants to see, because he does not want either side to become bigger. But Prigozhin put this last thing on the table to say this thing, and made the whole world know. This is simply devastating to the morale of Russia. It's equivalent to doing things too well.
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In fact, there is nothing to do things, and if he is really ready to replace him, these things can be regarded as a foreshadowing. In the process of his rebellion, he said that the entire special military operation was a hoax, there was no humanitarian disaster in Wudong at all, and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict was a war of aggression. It is equivalent to himself denying the legality of Russia's troops. Why can he have the capital to rebel? On the one hand, he has soldiers, on the other hand he is a war hero of Russia. After he said this, he denied the justice of Russia's troops, and his own credit no longer existed, so he didn't have a brain before he spoke.
Prigozhin believes that an important reason why the emperor cannot move himself is that the great enemy is current, and he still needs Wagner to resist Ukraine. But this situation has practically disappeared, and now on the battlefield neither side can fight, the Russian army cannot advance, the Ukrainian army cannot counterattack, and the two sides have stalemated. In this case, the so-called Great Ukrainian Counteroffensive will not exist, the pressure on the enemy will decrease, and Wagner will not be so important. And the Emperor was not preparing to abolish Wagner, but was preparing for formal inclusion.
Many people in the country still can't believe that this is what happened in Russia. Because the current public opinion on the mainland is still very friendly to the Russian checkpoint. However, the friendship between China and Russia does not mean that the political environment in Russia is very kind, which is completely different things. In fact, Russian politics has been like this since ancient times, Russia only obeys the strong, the ruler can be brutal, but absolutely not weak, the more brutal and tough the ruler, the more subordinate the Russian people.
Contrary to what many people think, the current criticism of Putin in Russia is not asking Putin to surrender or abandon the war. More criticism is that Putin is still too gentle, that Putin is completely a dove and that he should carry out a full mobilization and fight to the death with the West. This is the national character of Russia, the more ruthless and tough the leaders, the more they like it, on the contrary, if you behave too openly, the common people will complain about you.
Russian society has conducted surveys before, who is the greatest Russian in your mind? In first place as a result was Stalin. I'm not saying that Stalin was bad, but he did have a high pressure during his reign, but this high pressure was not criticized by the Russians many years later, but felt that it was his strength.
This is why Prigozhin had to die. Putin's external image is that of the Great, a ruthless person who is indispensable in Russia, and Russian society really only obeys this kind of person. This spiritual image is even more important than Russia's military strength. As a result, Prigozhin openly teased Putin, posing as if I have soldiers and I rebel casually, completely treating Moscow as a vegetable garden, setting off Putin's appearance as if he was very weak. This is actually asking for Putin's life, Prigozhin
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