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At present, whether from the perspective of import and export enterprises, young people from big cities, and even small and medium-sized entrepreneurs, a phrase is often heard: "This year is difficult". This seems to be the general consensus that China's economy is facing great challenges, and there is even a sense of anxiety in society.
Some likened it to "a robe that Kong Yiji couldn't take off," accusing young people of a lack of effort, which led to high unemployment. At the same time, the delivery brothers also feel the pressure, such as Guangzhou, Hangzhou and other cities The number of takeaway brothers has increased sharply, and the speed of takeaway delivery has been shortened, and it can be delivered within half an hour, not because of fewer orders, but because of the lack of manpower of takeaway brothers.
On the surface, we may seem to find life extremely difficult, but from a data perspective, China's economy is gradually recovering. Since the implementation of normalized epidemic prevention measures, China's economy and society have gradually returned to the right track. As the pace of interest rate hikes slowed in the US dollar, the real foreign investment attracted by China increased by 14.5% year-on-year. Manufacturing PMI data showed that it reached 52.6% in February, domestic tourist attractions were overcrowded, and express delivery business also showed a sharp increase.
In addition, China is still actively opening up its market, and a recent high-level meeting invited European and American entrepreneurs, including Apple CEO Cook, to demonstrate the huge potential of the Chinese market. Therefore, despite the uncertainty, China's economic development trend has remained relatively stable, and GDP growth is expected to be 5% this year, which is far more than other European and American countries, even if this figure is considered a conservative estimate.
But why, despite the rapid economic recovery, is it so common for young people to find it extremely difficult to find work? Unemployment soared, but why?
From a data perspective, in 2018, China's urban unemployment rate remained at around 5%, but the urban unemployment rate for people aged 16 to 24 showed an upward trend, reaching a record high of 19.9% as of July 2022. So, statistically, it has indeed become very difficult for young people to find work.
However, the real reason is not that young people do not work hard, but that there is a mismatch between talent supply and social demand. This is due to the fact that the traditional test-based education system produces graduates who do not have the practical skills required by enterprises, making it difficult for companies to recruit suitable employees and graduates to find jobs.
The solution to this problem lies in reforming the education system. In April 2022, China implemented a new Education Law, which explicitly emphasizes the equal status of vocational education with general education. This marks the beginning of China's emphasis on vocational education and no longer regards the training of college students as the only goal. Traditionally, Chinese society hopes to train large numbers of college students to make up for the lack of population quality, but in real life, we need blue-collar skilled workers who can actually do work. However, many college students come from wealthy families, and it is difficult for them to accept the reality of going to real work, which is a complex issue.
Parents are also reluctant to see them end up in labor-intensive jobs because they invest a lot of resources to support their children in college, which is also an embarrassing situation. All these factors interact to make it difficult for young people to find work and limited job opportunities. Of course, this is also related to the education system and the transformation of academic achievements, because the skills required by the market are changing rapidly, and traditional education and training programs cannot meet the needs of enterprises.
Although life is sometimes difficult, China's situation is not bad compared to the international environment. In the United States, the risk of a recession has increased sharply due to the continuous rise in market interest rates, and Goldman Sachs has even raised the probability of a recession in the United States to 35% from the previous 25%. The U.S. banking sector is also facing a crisis, with interest rate hikes and inflation continuing to ferment, and if the government and the Fed do not handle it properly, it may trigger a financial crisis and lead to a more difficult life for the American people.
Europe faces similar problems, with high inflation and hardship for ordinary people in many European countries. German unions, dissatisfied with inflation, demanded wage increases, while a nationwide strike broke out in France, paralyzing public facilities
Drowning, electricity production, public transport and school operations were severely disrupted. In order to maintain order, the French government had to mobilize 12,000 police to strengthen law enforcement.
In Europe and the United States, the banking sector is also facing a crisis, with interest rate hikes and inflation further exacerbating the overall economic downturn. According to the International Monetary Fund's forecast, the US GDP growth rate this year has been revised down to 1.4% from the previous 2%, and the Fed has even lowered its GDP growth forecast to 0.4% due to the intensification of the banking crisis. In contrast, the situation in Europe is even worse, with an economic growth rate of only 0.7%, and according to S&P's forecasts, GDP growth is now only 0.3%, which is not much different from that of the United States.
In contrast, China's economic growth rate has been revised up from 3% last year to 5.2% this year. Overall, China's economic recovery has far outpaced that of Europe and the United States, and these data not only give us insight into China's opportunities, but also give us confidence in the prospects of individuals and families.
The purpose of writing this article is not only to tell everyone that China's economic development road is not easy, but also to hope that we can look at problems more rationally than emotions. While China has a high youth unemployment rate, we can complain, but it's more important to think about how to solve this problem.
From the perspective of the international situation, China's economic situation is relatively good, but we still need to deal with a series of problems, including the reform of the education system and the improvement of skills training. The demand for talents in the market is constantly changing, and traditional training methods can no longer meet the needs of enterprises. Therefore, we need to pay more attention to vocational education and train blue-collar workers with more practical skills to meet the needs of the market.
In short, China's national fortunes will continue to recover in 2023, there will be more opportunities, and the overall environment is relatively favorable. In this process, we don't need to worry too much about problems like "Kong Yiji's robe", but should be more concerned about how to find our own industry and development opportunities and integrate into it, which is what everyone needs to think about. After all, although life can sometimes get tough, we must always believe that the future is full of possibilities.
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