Rush the starter or do wait for the party? Tell you when to buy the iPhone 15 is the best deal

Today is the official day of the iPhone 15 series on sale, I believe that consumers with fast hands should have already got their new iPhones, and those with slow hands have to wait for some days. If you missed the first launch appointment, buy it on the official website now, taking the iPhone 15 Pro Max white titanium 1TB as an example, the official release date has been scheduled to mid-November, which shows how popular the first sale of the new iPhone is.

However, even if it belongs to the same 15 series, the popularity of the four models of 15/15 Plus/15 Pro/15 Pro Max is very different, and even different colors are different. For example, the same iPhone 15 Pro Max, if you change to blue and black, the shipping date can be half a month earlier. If you switch to an iPhone 15 Pro, the shipping date can be a week earlier. The basic 15 and 15 Plus belong to the state that can be taken immediately under the payment line, which is in sharp contrast to the shortage of supplies of the Pro series.

If there are audiences who pay attention to the first sale of the iPhone 14 series last year, such a situation should be expected. Since Apple introduced ProMotion adaptive high brush on the iPhone 13 Pro series, and used the processor for the first time on the iPhone 14 series to distinguish between basic and Pro models, there has been a very obvious gap in product power between the basic and Pro models of recent generations of iPhones. The new generation of iPhone basic model is to some extent equivalent to the previous generation of Pro model shrinkage replacement, and its 128GB starting price is already from 5999 yuan. Insufficient product strength and excessive pricing make users who want to buy an iPhone more inclined to buy Pro models, which makes the basic model far less popular than Pro models. From the perspective of the market's reflection, the basic iPhone obviously cannot support its pricing. Among Pinduoduo's tens of billions of subsidies, the basic money is now a subsidy of 400 and bought casually, which is what we call the sale and breaking.

In the Pro model, Pro Max has always sold better than Pro. In the case of the same configuration, Pro Max because of the larger body and screen, can bring a more comfortable viewing experience, but also has a better battery life, plus consumers have always spent so much money, it is better to add some money to directly buy the psychology of a large cup, so the popularity of Pro Max is higher than that of the same level of Pro.

Or take Pinduoduo tens of billions of subsidies as an example, the 15 Pro model already has a subsidy coupon of 500 yuan, although it is basically a state that cannot be grabbed, and there is a certain chance of cutting orders, but there is always some. The 15 Pro Max does not currently have any subsidies, but a small amount of stock can be snapped up regularly (basically can't grab). From the pricing strategy of third-party shopping platforms, we can also see a degree of acceptance of different iPhone models in the market.

Of course, if it is only a normal initial production climb and supply exceeds demand, then in fact, the Pro model will not be in short supply to this extent. What further aggravates the shortage of supply is actually the participation of scalpers of the whole people. Because of the popularity of the iPhone Pro model itself, and coinciding with the National Day Golden Week, it just happens that many people need to buy a new iPhone Pro just in demand, even if the price increase is acceptable. Therefore, if the first release grabs a Pro model, even if it is not used, it can be sold at a markup, but it is really not possible and there is no reason to refund, and the various installments interest-free at the time of the first sale also greatly reduce the economic burden of the purchase. Driven by the national scalper, it has led to the difficulty of finding a machine when the iPhone Pro model is first released. From the price list flowing out of various channels, the price increase of 15 Pro is generally around 500, and the price of 15 Pro Max is about 1000.

So if you are the first to buy the iPhone 15 series, the basic 15 and 15 Plus can be bought at no original price, and their price reduction space is very large. And 15 Pro, the first launch will basically not be lower than the original price, may be temporarily only Pinduoduo tens of billions of subsidies have a very small amount of subsidy supply. The 15 Pro Max is best to buy at the original price, otherwise you may have to grab the first release and you may have to find a scalper to increase the price.

Of course, this situation will not be maintained forever, and with sufficient supply, Pro models will also usher in price reductions. Taking last year's iPhone 14 series as an example, before Double 11, the basic iPhone 14 and 14 Plus ushered in a big drop in price. The first price of the iPhone 14 128GB is 5999 yuan, Double 11 generally came to about 5000 yuan, and the lowest price even has 4799 yuan. iPhone 14 Plus has generally fallen by more than 1000 yuan from 6999 yuan, directly entering the 5500 price point. 14 Pro and 14 Pro Max have also entered a stable period of price, and in the tens of billions of subsidies of JD.com, Taobao, and Pinduoduo, they have the opportunity to buy at a lower price than the first price. Therefore, based on the market price changes of last year's iPhone 14, this year's Double 11 should also usher in a price low point of the iPhone 15 series, according to the situation of shopping festivals in recent years, the best prices tend to appear on the night of October 31 rather than the night of Double 11. If you missed the first launch or are not in a hurry to buy it, then Double 11 should be a time worth buying a new iPhone.

But here it should also be emphasized that this year's iPhone 15 and 15 Plus decline is not necessarily as large as last year's 14 and 14 Plus, 14 Plus as Apple's first launch of the basic Plus model, Apple should have relatively high expectations for its sales. But after the setback of the 14 Plus, the stock of the 15 Plus may be reduced, and the price reduction space of the entire base model may not be as large as last year. In addition, the price reduction of the 15 Pro and 15 Pro Max may also be different this year, and the 15 Pro Max's exclusive 5x periscope telephoto has a chance to make its market price firmer.

After Double 11, the price of the normal 15 series will recover somewhat, remaining stable on third-party platforms at a lower price than the debut. Next year's 618,15 series will usher in another price low of it. Taking this year's 618 iPhone 14 series as an example, the lowest price of iPhone 14 128GB has come to 4699, 14 Pro 128GB has come to about 6200, and 14 Pro Max 128GB is also about 6800. It can be seen that compared with Double Eleven, 14 and 14 Plus have dropped by several hundred yuan, because it has experienced a very large price reduction in the early days, and there is no room for price reduction. The 14 Pro and 14 Pro Max have dropped by about 1,000 yuan, because these two models are close to the end of their product production cycle.

However, here you have to note that after 618, the Pro series will usher in a price increase. Because with the end of the college entrance examination, a large number of prospective freshmen have the demand to buy the latest iPhone, and near the release of iPhone 16, Apple will also reduce the production of the iPhone 15 series after 618, and the increase in market demand and the decrease in supply will lead to a price increase after the iPhone 15 series after 618.

Overall, there are three more suitable opportunities to buy a new generation of iPhone 15 series, one is to buy 15 Pro and 15 Pro Max for the first time, buy early and enjoy early, if you can buy it at the original price, it will be better. Second, when Double 11, the basic 15 and 15 Plus have basically fallen to its normal price, and 15 Pro and 15 Pro Max will usher in a wave of good prices as the supply is stable and platform subsidies stimulate consumption. The third is next year's 618, if you can't wait for the release of the iPhone 16 series, then 618 will usher in the price trough of the 15 series, and it is time to buy the bottom.