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Tensions in the Taiwan Strait have been in the spotlight in recent years, and over time the powder keg seems increasingly dangerous, with any miscalculation threatening to ignite a large-scale conflict that will have global repercussions. In order to deal with a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait, relevant US agencies have conducted many wargaming exercises in an attempt to predict the possible situation and outcome. These deductions show us a grim picture, including the heavy cost of casualties for both Chinese and American militaries, and the possibility of 40,000 casualties in the PLA within seven days of the start of the war.
Not long ago, Voice of America released a wargaming report on the Taiwan Strait conflict, which was studied by the US Congress, which provides a new perspective on this potential conflict. In this exercise, the PLA plans to send a landing force of 50,000 people to Taiwan within the first week of the war. However, this plan could come at a heavy price, as the U.S. military has already taken forceful action and the PLA could lose more than 40,000 people during the landing and beach grab. At the same time, the United States itself will suffer huge losses, including downed aircraft, sunken warships and damaged submarines.
However, this is not the first time that the United States has raised the idea that the PLA could suffer heavy casualties. In past wargames, the United States usually came to two conclusions, either that the PLA could not resist the U.S. military intervention, or that despite the victory, it suffered heavy casualties. However, whether these views are true or not, we need to look at them from different angles.
Some people believe that the US rhetoric is nothing more than a threat and intimidation, designed to deter the PLA from acting rashly. However, China is no longer the China it was a few decades ago, and it has greatly improved its weapons and strategic capabilities. In addition, since its founding, the PLA has suffered almost no defeats within its own territory, which shows that its combat effectiveness and strength have been fully verified.
It is worth noting that unlike 50 years ago, the PLA's sphere of influence has expanded throughout the western Pacific, and Taiwan Island is only 300 kilometers from the mainland of the motherland. Therefore, in this potential conflict, the victory or defeat can almost be determined. On the issue of heavy casualties, some argue that the United States statement exaggerates the actual situation. The PLA has a variety of missile systems that can strike U.S. warships and military bases without sending large troops, which will cost the United States dearly on China's doorstep while failing to prevent the PLA from recovering the island.
In short, the U.S. wargame may be more of a threat and intimidation aimed at preventing the PLA from acting. However, the reality can be more complex and unpredictable than they portray. In any case, the tension in the Taiwan Strait needs to be treated with caution to avoid disastrous consequences caused by miscalculation.
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