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In a recent report, U.S. National Security Adviser Sullivan suggested that the United States is willing to conduct independent dialogues with China and Russia on arms control issues. He also noted that it is estimated that the number of nuclear warheads in China could reach 1,500 by 2050. The proposal, which aims to ensure that competition does not turn into confrontation, underscores the importance of international arms control.
Over the years, the United States and Russia have repeatedly engaged in arms control negotiations, but they have faced a series of challenges. As early as 2019, the INF Treaty expired, and the United States and Russia accused each other of violating the agreement, causing the treaty to run aground. Later, U.S.-Russian relations deteriorated further after the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis, leading to the New START Treaty in crisis, and Russia even withdrew from the relevant verification mechanism.
Although the United States wants to negotiate with Russia on the extension of the New START Treaty, repeated attempts by both sides have failed to make progress. Russia, for its part, accuses the United States of lack of sincerity, arguing that it is merely propaganda and not taking substantive action. This position emphasizes that dialogue should be based on equality and respect for each other's national interests.
At the same time, China has always been resolute about participating in the "trilateral arms control negotiations between China and the United States and Russia." Although China supports international nuclear disarmament, the current conditions are not suitable. China's Foreign Ministry said that to achieve this goal, the United States will first need to take action to reduce nuclear weapons in a deep way to create conditions for other countries to participate in arms control negotiations.
On the issue of arms control, the key lies in the balance of the number of nuclear weapons. Currently, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute in Sweden, Russia has 5,977 nuclear warheads, while the United States has 5,428 nuclear warheads, and the two countries together account for 90% of the world's total nuclear weapons. By comparison, China has an estimated 320 nuclear warheads, a significantly smaller number.
Therefore, to achieve a global reduction in nuclear armaments, first of all, the United States needs to take action to reduce the number of nuclear warheads. Progress in arms control negotiations can be expected only if the number of nuclear weapons is balanced among the parties. Otherwise, reducing the number of nuclear weapons could lead to unequal outcomes that would undermine the national security of States.
The recent test of an intercontinental ballistic missile by the United States has attracted widespread attention. These tests are designed to demonstrate the safety, reliability and effectiveness of the U.S. nuclear deterrent. However, it has also raised questions about U.S. deterrence, which many see as a deterrent to China and Russia.
In general, international arms control issues are complex and sensitive, requiring practical actions by all countries to establish a basis for dialogue based on equality and mutual respect. Only when the number of nuclear weapons is gradually balanced can international arms control negotiations be expected to make substantial progress. In maintaining global peace and stability, all countries shoulder a common responsibility and need to work together to resolve this important issue.
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