Price increases, bans, short selling, Huawei sniping, Apple is in danger this time< titlesplit >
Author|Zhang Rui
Editor|Kang Xiao
Produced by Shenwang Xiaoman Studio
At 1 a.m. Beijing time on September 13, Apple held an autumn new product conference with the theme of "curiosity".
From the highlights of this conference, it mainly includes the world's first 3nm chip, USB Type-C charging interface, a full range of support for smart islands, Pro Max periscope lenses, double-click motion operations on watches, etc.
At the press conference, Apple CEO Cook first introduced the MacBook and the first Apple Vision Pro headset launched at WWDC2023 in June, and said,
Vision Pro is expected to begin shipping early next year
。 Subsequently, Cook introduced the protagonist Apple Watch Series 9 and iPhone 15 series at this conference.
In terms of chips, Apple Watch Series 9 is equipped with S9 chip; The iPhone 15 and iPhone 15Plus are powered by the same A16 Bionic chip as the iPhone 14pro.
The iPhone 15Pro series uses the A17 Pro chip with 3nm process.
In terms of charging interface, the iPhone 15 is equipped with a USB Type-C charging interface, which can charge Macs, iPads, iPhones and second-generation AirPods Pro.
Compared with last year's fall conference, Apple spent more time on introducing new products and made efforts in carbon reduction and environmental protection.
Among them, the Watch Series 9 is Apple's first carbon neutral product, and the battery uses 100% recycled cobalt. Apple announced that leather goods will no longer be used on Apple Watch straps.
Cook promised on stage that Apple would achieve carbon neutrality for its entire business by 2030.
In terms of price, the Apple Watch Series 9 starts at $399; The Apple Watch Ultra 2 starts at $799; The new Apple Watch goes on sale today and will ship on September 22.
The iPhone 15 starts at $799 and the iPhone 15 Plus starts at $899; The iPhone 15 Pro starts at $999 and the iPhone 15 Pro Max starts at $1,199. Compared with the iPhone 14 series, only the starting price of the iPhone 15 Pro Max has increased by $100, while the price of other US versions of iPhone 15 has not increased. The price of the National Bank version of the iPhone 15 increased, and Apple suffered a short sale
According to Apple's official website, the Chinese version of the iPhone 15 starts at 5999 yuan, the iPhone 15 Plus starts at 6999 yuan, the iPhone 15 Pro starts at 7999 yuan, and the iPhone 15 Pro starts at up to 7999 yuan. The starting price is 9999 yuan. Reservations are accepted at 8 p.m. on September 15 and will be available on September 22.
Compared with the National Bank version of the iPhone 14, except for the 128GB configuration, other versions of the iPhone 15 series have increased in price. Among them, the price of each version of the 256GB configuration increased by 100 yuan, the price of the 512GB configuration increased by 300 yuan, and the price of the IT configuration increased by 500 yuan.
The price increase of the National Bank version of the iPhone 15 may hinder the demand of domestic users to buy the new version of Apple.
Apple's suppliers will also face performance pressure. Guo Mingchi, an analyst at Tianfeng Securities, previously predicted that the demand for the iPhone 15 series this year will be lower than that of the iPhone 14 series. He said that while shipments will decrease in the fourth quarter of 2022, most component shipments are not scheduled to change significantly in the fourth quarter of 2022. Unless demand after the launch of the iPhone 15 is better than market expectations, most of the supply. The Chamber of Commerce said that because the demand for the iPhone 15 is lower than that of the iPhone 14, earnings will face growth pressure in the second half of the year.
It should be noted that just a week before Apple released the iPhone 15, Dan Niles, founder and portfolio manager of hedge fund Satori Fund, tweeted that "Apple stock has sold off, and Apple is now the largest single stock short position."
A screenshot of a September 7 tweet from Dan Niles, founder and portfolio manager at hedge fund Satori Fund
As for the reasons for shorting Apple, Daniels gave 4 reasons: first, the ban in China (19% of revenue) was extended to state-owned enterprises; Second, Huawei recovered; Third, student loan repayments start over; Fourth, CQ3 declined year-on-year for the fourth consecutive year.
Affected by various factors such as Huawei's recovery and shortening of capital institutions, Apple's market value fell by nearly $200 billion in a week. At the close of the US stock market on September 1, Apple's total market value was $2,962.1 billion; On September 7, Apple's total market value was $2.776 billion, with a weekly loss of $186.1 billion.
During the press conference, Apple's stock price fell, and the intraday decline once widened to 2%. As of the close of U.S. stocks on September 12, Apple's stock price was quoted at $176.3 per share, down 1.71%, with a total market value of $2.7563 billion. Compared with the previous day's total market value of $2,804.2 billion, the single-day market value lost $47.9 billion. Apple and Huawei restart the battle of kings
Throughout Apple's conference, in addition to the titanium alloy frame design, customizable operation buttons and "STANDARD" screen display, the iPhone 15 Pro series did not have many surprises.
On the communications front, Apple announced a partnership with the American Automobile Association (AAA) to develop a satellite SOS service. Customers in the United States who purchase and activate the new iPhone 14 and iPhone 15 series models receive 2 years of free emergency SOS and roadside assistance.
On August 29, Huawei's Mate 60 Pro released online to support Tiantong satellite phones, becoming the first mass consumer smartphone that supports satellite phones.
In terms of price, the price of all configurations of Apple's iPhone 15 is higher than that of Huawei Mate 60 series, such as 256GB, 512GB, and 1TB Pro series versions that are 2500 yuan, 4000 yuan, and 5000 yuan more expensive than Mate. 60 respectively.
Huawei Mate 60 series returns with 5G speed, Apple mobile phone sales will definitely be affected. After all, in the two years of Huawei's "strategic retreat," Apple destroyed most of Huawei's top mobile phone market share.
IDC data shows that in the first half of 2020, in China's smartphone market with a price of more than $600, Huawei topped the list with a share of 44.1%, followed by Apple with a share of 44%. A year later, in the fourth quarter of 2021, Apple controlled more than 70% of the top phone market.
The impact of Huawei's recovery on Apple is mainly reflected in the domestic market and overseas markets.
As far as the domestic market is concerned, Greater China is one of Apple's three major sales regions. Apple's fiscal year 2023 Q3 financial report (corresponding to the second quarter of 2023 calendar year) data shows that in this quarter, Apple's sales in Greater China were $15.758 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.26%.
According to supply chain sources, orders for the Mate 60 Pro have increased to 15 million to 17 million units. IDC data shows that in the second quarter of 2023, Apple's shipments in the Chinese smartphone market were about 10.05 million units.
In the era of smartphone share competition, Huawei Mate 60 series will seize Apple's market share in China when it is first released. Market research firm TrendForce had previously expected that poor market sentiment, coupled with Huawei's strong return, could have an impact on Apple's overall iPhone sales this year. Therefore, the total annual iPhone production is expected to be around 22-225 million units, down about 5% year-on-year.
In addition to Huawei, Apple, which does not have folding screen phones, is also facing competition from OPPO, vivo, honor and other mobile phones that have launched folding screens. Later this year, Honor (Magic V2) and OPPO (Discover N3 Flip) released new foldable phones. In addition, Honor will also release its first folding screen mobile phone, V Purse, on September 19.
Honor CEO Zhao Ming said that Honor's folding screen mobile phone will break the boundary between a straight plate machine and a folding flagship. The only real competitors are the recently released iPhone 14 and iPhone 15.
The Indian market is unlikely to be a lifesaver to save Apple
In addition to the domestic market, Apple will also face the "containment" of mobile phone brands such as Huawei and Honor in overseas markets.
According to reports, Huawei has launched a comprehensive plan for the global mobile phone market. In May this year, Huawei P60 Pro, folding screen Mate X3 and a series of full-screen ecological products were released in Germany, the United Arab Emirates, Malaysia and Mexico.
However, compared with the domestic market, Huawei will face many obstacles if it wants to return to the peak in overseas markets. Counterpoint analysts said, "In the European market, factors such as 5G and Google Mobile Services (GMS) are very important for the smartphone market. Since the European market does not support 5G or GMS technology, Huawei smartphones will be in the first half of 2023. Sales in the European market will be very limited, less than 0.1%.
Huawei mobile phones cannot shake Apple's position in the European market in the short term, but the glory of returning to the European market can also be seen in the European market. Zhao Ming has said that he hopes that Honor can become the next "Huawei in the European market".
Greater China faces direct competition from Huawei. In the European market, manufacturers such as Honor are grabbing share. Apple, which has suffered a lot, has begun to look for growth points from the Indian market.
At Apple's fiscal 2023 Q3 results conference, Apple CFO Luca Maestri singled out the Indian market and said that "the iPhone set a record for the highest revenue in India."
From the financial report, Apple did not announce the specific sales of the Indian market, but merged the sales of the Indian market to other regions such as the Asia-Pacific region. In fiscal 2023 Q3, Apple's sales in other regions such as Asia Pacific were $5.63 billion. Compared with the $15.758 billion in sales in Greater China, the Indian market is now difficult to save declining iPhone sales.
Moreover, the Indian mobile phone market has always been dominated by cheap mobile phones. IDC data shows that in the third quarter of 2022, the average selling price in the Indian market was $226. Getting price-sensitive Indian users to buy iPhones that cost more than $700 is a challenge in itself.