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U.S.-Taiwan Relations: Strategic Thinking and Challenges
Recently, former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger talked about US-Taiwan relations in an interview, pointing out that military reunification of Taiwan would be the last step in China's plan. He believes U.S. strategic thinking will spur it to take action to deter Chinese military action. This view makes sense in the current international situation, but we need to delve into the complexities behind it.
U.S. strategy hinders preparations with China
The presence of the United States has created a clear obstacle to the Taiwan issue, which makes the Chinese mainland relatively low incentive to act. China is actively preparing with economic and military means, and whether it is fully prepared or not, China has the ability to take military action against the United States, which could cause huge losses to the United States. Therefore, the United States needs to actively avoid potential direct conflict, especially in the current situation, when the United States faces internal and external pressures and challenges.
The sensitivity of the Taiwan Strait issue
Kissinger also stressed that the United States should not abandon its ambiguous policy, because once the United States clarifies the nature of the Taiwan authorities, China may take military action to safeguard national sovereignty. This is precisely where the sensitivity of the Taiwan Strait issue lies. The United States has repeatedly provoked contradictions and conflicts, but diplomatic relations have not broken down, thanks in part to the binding of interests on both sides and the apparent recognition of the "one-China" principle by the United States. However, U.S. actions are often inconsistent with its commitments, such as arms sales to Taiwan and the passage of naval fleets in the Taiwan Strait, which support the Taiwan authorities.
Strategic interests of the United States
The ambiguous policy of the United States is in response to the restrictions of the Sino-US joint communiqué, because the United States needs the presence of Taiwan authorities to support its strategy in the Asia-Pacific region. Without some support, Taiwan will not be able to serve the U.S. strategy, which is critical to the U.S. first island chain strategy and influence in the Asia-Pacific region. At the same time, the ambiguous policy of the United States also provides the possibility of repeatedly provoking the Taiwan issue, because as long as the top level of the United States does not explicitly support "Taiwan independence", it can continue to blur the issue in public opinion, while it is difficult for China to grasp the handle of the United States.
Changes in arms sales to Taiwan
Another important change is the nature of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. In the past, the United States mainly sold defensive weapons because of the superiority of the United States and Taiwan in naval and air power at that time. However, in recent years, the United States has begun to sell weapons that are both offensive and defensive, which indicates that China has formed a local strategic advantage in the Asia-Pacific region. The Biden administration has significantly increased arms sales to Taiwan, which has further improved Taiwan's military strength.
Strategic change in the United States
At present, the United States seems to no longer adhere to the ambiguity policy, but regards Taiwan as a front line and strategic base against China. This strategic shift means that the United States may increase its support for Taiwan, not only for arms sales, but also for deeper cooperation. Although the current US arms sales to Taiwan are mainly old equipment, the proportion of modern equipment has gradually increased, making Taiwan more competitive militarily.
Challenges and future prospects
Despite changes in U.S. strategic thinking and actions, it is important to note that challenges remain in the development of U.S.-Taiwan relations. The tentative move of the United States may increase the risk of war in the Taiwan Strait, and if the United States continues to be deeply involved, it will be difficult to get rid of it. Once the external conditions for peaceful reunification are undermined, China may take resolute action, while the United States may face huge consequences.
summary
Taken together, the development of U.S.-Taiwan relations involves complex international political and strategic considerations. The change in U.S. strategy has had a profound impact on the Taiwan issue, but it has also increased risks. Kissinger's proposal is a reminder to U.S. policymakers of the need to carefully balance their own interests with the stability of international peace, rather than clinging to it. How to handle US-Taiwan relations will continue to be the focus of international attention in the future, and we also hope that all parties can resolve disputes in a peaceful manner and maintain regional stability and prosperity.
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