El Niño is a natural climatic phenomenon in which the waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean warm abnormally every few years. El Niño causes climate change on a global scale, affecting agricultural production and food security. Thailand is one of the world's largest producers and exporters of rice, and rice is an important source of economic income and foreign exchange. This paper analyzes the impact of El Niño on rice production and exports in Thailand, as well as the response strategies adopted by the Thai government and farmers, with the aim of providing lessons for other countries affected by El Niño.
Impact of El Niño on rice production in Thailand
Thailand is one of the world's largest producers and exporters of rice, and rice is one of its main sources of crops and foreign exchange. Thailand's fragrant rice is world-renowned and is one of the world's largest varieties of rice exported after Indian fragrant rice. However, the El Niño phenomenon has had a serious impact on Thailand's rice industry. According to a report released by Thailand's Kaitai Research Center on the 7th, the intensification of El Niño in the second half of 2023 will cause losses to important crops, including rice, cassava, corn, oil palm and fruits, with an estimated total loss of about 48 billion baht (about 10 billion yuan), of which rice has the largest loss, accounting for about 80% of the total loss value of the agricultural sector.
The main reasons for the decline in rice production in Thailand due to El Niño are drought and high temperatures. Due to the El Niño phenomenon, the summer wind in China will be weak, and the monsoon rain belt will be southerly. As a result, major rice-growing regions such as northern and northeastern Thailand are prone to drought and high temperatures in summer. These areas lack irrigation facilities and rely heavily on rainfall to moisturize the soil and irrigate rice. Therefore, when rainfall decreases, rice growth is restricted, resulting in reduced harvests and lower quality.
The El Niño phenomenon has affected not only rice production in Thailand, but also its competitiveness and price in the international market. The El Niño phenomenon triggered a global shortage of food supplies and increased demand, leading to higher rice prices. However, Thailand was unable to take full advantage of this opportunity to expand its export share and generate more income due to declining rice production.
Conversely, Thailand faces stiff competition from other rice exporters such as India and Vietnam. India is the world's largest rice exporter, producing and exporting more rice than Thailand. Vietnam is the third largest rice exporter in the world, and its rice price is lower than that of Thailand, which has a strong price advantage. In addition, Thailand is also affected by the exchange rate of the Thai baht, which appreciates against the US dollar and other currencies, making Thai rice more expensive in the international market, making it less attractive.
Impact of El Niño on rice exports from Thailand
Thailand is one of the world's largest rice exporters, exporting 11 million tons of rice in 2018 and about 7.58 million tons in 2019. From January to September 2022, Thailand's rice orders surged, and exports increased by nearly 40% year-on-year. This is mainly due to the following factors:
The El Niño weather phenomenon has raised global concerns about food security, leading many countries to increase demand for imported rice. In particular, countries such as the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia and Japan have expressed interest in buying Thai rice. India's export ban on non-fragrant rice has tightened the global rice market and increased prices. This provides an opportunity for Thai rice exports. The depreciation of the Thai baht has given Thai rice a price advantage in the international market, enhancing its competitiveness.
However, the El Niño phenomenon also poses challenges and risks to Thailand's rice exports. On the one hand, due to the decline in rice production and quality, Thailand may find it difficult to meet the quantity and quality requirements of export orders, resulting in customer dissatisfaction and loss of credibility. On the other hand, Thailand may face volatility and competition in the export market due to the uncertainty of the El Niño phenomenon. For example, if India lifts its export ban, or if other countries increase rice production and exports, Thailand's rice market share and price may be affected.
Thailand's response to El Niño
Faced with the impact of El Niño on rice production and exports, the Thai government and farmers have adopted a series of coping strategies, including:
Strengthen climate monitoring and early warning, timely release information on drought, floods and other disasters, and guide farmers to rationally arrange planting time and irrigation water. Promote water-saving irrigation techniques and drought-resistant varieties to improve the stress tolerance and adaptability of rice. Adjust the planting structure and regional layout, reduce the area of rice planting that is more dependent on water resources, and increase the proportion of other crops. Strengthen rice reserve management and market regulation to ensure domestic food security and price stability. Strengthen rice quality inspection and supervision, improve rice quality standards, and ensure export quality. Expand rice export markets and channels, strengthen communication and cooperation with major importing countries, and enhance the visibility and credibility of Thai rice in the international market.
El Niño is an unavoidable natural phenomenon that has a significant impact on rice production and exports in Thailand. The Thai government and farmers have taken advantage of both the opportunities and challenges posed by El Niño by adopting effective response strategies. These experiences are worth learning from other countries affected by the El Niño phenomenon.