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Not long ago, seven countries formed a new mechanism aimed at helping Afghanistan achieve peacebuilding. At the first meeting of the mechanism, diplomats made a firm appeal to Western countries: return 9 billion dollars of overseas assets from Afghanistan! This seems to mark the beginning of a new round of international games involving Central, Western, East and South Asia.
Afghanistan's multifaceted geographical location makes it a geopolitical focus. Three great powers, Britain, the Soviet Union, and the United States, tried to put down roots here, but failed. Afghanistan has thus been nicknamed the "graveyard of empires." However, the legacy left by the United States is not just a ridiculous Kabul moment, but also includes two wounds that cannot heal that have far-reaching effects on Afghanistan.
The first wound is Afghanistan's overseas assets frozen by the United States and Europe, totalling $9 billion, of which the United States accounts for $7 billion and Europe for $2 billion. This is a blow to the Afghan people's path to survival. Afghanistan has a population of about 40 million, but its food production is only about 4 million tons per year, or only 100 kilograms per person per year. To ensure that people do not starve to death, at least 200 kilograms of food per person is needed.
As a result, Afghanistan is not self-sufficient and depends on food imports. However, imports require foreign exchange, and the United States has frozen $7 billion in foreign exchange, pushing Afghanistan to a desperate situation. Under the pressure of survival, people will do anything. As a result, the second wound left by the United States quickly spread to neighboring countries, which were also threatened.
The second wound is the fast-growing terrorist organization. Despite the widespread international association of the Taliban with terrorism, in Afghanistan they actually have faith and aspirations. In sharp contrast, the United States, which has been raging in Afghanistan for 20 years, has allowed one terrorist organization after another to sprang up, not only did not attack them, but tolerated their expansion, bringing great security threats to Afghanistan and neighboring countries.
In addition, as a result of the freezing of Afghanistan's overseas assets by the United States, many Afghans have joined these terrorist organizations for their livelihood, indirectly leading to an increase in the frequency of terrorist attacks by these organizations. In the end, however, it is the Taliban, who nominally control Afghanistan. The Taliban had promised to fight terror, but because of its poor international reputation, the United States used this as an excuse to withhold Afghan funds. However, lacking funds, the Taliban are also in trouble, and can only do nothing to watch the country descend into chaos, and also drag surrounding areas such as Central Asia into the mud.
Central Asia plays an important role geographically, located in the center of the Eurasian continent, is the main transportation route between the East and the West, and is a key area for the great powers to compete for! The U.S. invasion of Afghanistan and the two wounds left behind may not have been accidental, but may have been orchestrated to control Central Asia. Recently, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Central Asia and held "C5+1" ministerial talks, once again demonstrating the intention of the United States to return to Central Asia. However, the United States may have underestimated the complexity of the situation, and Central Asia is not so easily controlled.
If we look closely at the list of members of this new mechanism, we will see that with the exception of Turkmenistan, which is permanently neutral, all other countries are members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. And one of the main tasks of the SCO is to combat terrorism. The SCO has a specialized capacity to deal with the current escalating problem of terrorism in Afghanistan. Foreseeably, the diplomatic call is just the beginning, and the SCO is likely to do more in the future. If the United States wants to intervene in Central Asia, I am afraid it will not be so easy.
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