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In the near future, China will take an important step towards a manned lunar landing. However, the plan has been in the spotlight because China has already made impressive achievements in space technology and seems fully capable of landing a manned lunar landing by 2023. So why is China delaying this goal until 2030? Let's explore this together.
First, take a look at China's current manned lunar landing program. According to the space white paper released by the China National Space Administration, China has launched the lunar landing phase of the manned lunar exploration project, and plans to achieve the first Chinese landing on the moon by 2030. This is the second step in China's three-step strategy for lunar exploration projects, and it is also a complex systems project involving multiple aircraft and multiple stages.
The plan includes launching a new generation of manned launch vehicles Long March 9 to send a new generation of manned spacecraft, lunar landers, lunar landing suits and other flight products into Earth orbit. Then, multiple rendezvous and docking are carried out in Earth orbit, assembled into a complete lunar vehicle. Next, from Earth orbit, enter lunar orbit, separate the lunar landing module and return module, and make a soft landing on the lunar surface, where astronauts conduct scientific investigations, sampling and research. The lunar module then takes off again, docks with the re-entry module in lunar orbit, and eventually returns to Earth.
This plan involves a number of key technologies, including the development of a new generation of launch vehicles and spacecraft, rendezvous and docking technology in Earth orbit, soft landing technology on the lunar surface, takeoff and return technology from the lunar surface, and lunar suit technology. Among them, the core technical verification is "orbit, fall, return", that is, first orbit the moon, then soft landing on the lunar surface, and finally take off from the lunar surface and then return to the earth.
China has successfully implemented three phases of lunar exploration projects, including lunar exploration, lunar soft landing and patrol exploration, and lunar sampling and return. The Chang'e-5 mission was a milestone in China's lunar exploration program, and its successful return of lunar soil samples shows that China already has the technical capability to return to Earth from the lunar surface.
However, the challenges of achieving a manned lunar landing cannot be ignored. At present, one of the biggest problems facing China is how to bring massive heavy objects from the lunar surface back to Earth. An astronaut and spacesuit would also weigh at least 150 kilograms, far more than the less than 2 kilograms of lunar soil samples brought back by the Chang'e-5 mission. This means that the amount of material that needs to be transported back to Earth on the lunar surface is greatly increased.
The solution to this problem seems simple, that is, to add more fuel to the return capsule. However, fuel needs to be transported from Earth to the Moon, and adding 10 kilograms of fuel requires an increase of 10 kilograms in rocket thrust, and with the limited capacity currently available for launch vehicles, adding fuel could become a technical and engineering challenge.
China's manned lunar landing program currently has three main options. The first option is to use a super-thrust rocket to send all the lunar landing parts to the lunar surface at once, and then carry only astronauts back to Earth. However, this requires enormous rocket capacity, far beyond the current level of technology. The second option is to send the lunar landing components into Earth orbit in advance in multiple parts, and then assemble in Earth orbit and run to the moon together. Although this scheme is feasible, it requires multiple launches and docking, which is more risky. The third option is to wait for the successful development of the Long March 9 rocket, a heavy-duty launch vehicle being developed by China, which can launch lunar landing components into lunar orbit at one time, eliminating multiple dockings in Earth orbit, reducing risk and difficulty. However, the Long March 9 rocket is expected to make its maiden flight in 2028, which also means delaying the timetable for a manned lunar landing.
So why is China delaying a manned lunar landing until 2030? First, China's manned lunar landing program is not to catch up with other countries, but for scientific exploration, resource utilization and space expansion. China hopes to advance this project steadily at its own pace and in its own plans, and is in no hurry to prove its strength for a while. Secondly, this is a complex system engineering, which requires the coordination of cooperation in multiple fields, departments and units, investing a lot of resources and energy, overcoming various difficulties and risks, and carrying out adequate preparation and verification. At the same time, China has other important space missions that need to balance resources and priorities. Most importantly, China's manned lunar landing program is not just for landing on the moon, but for stationing on the moon. It is part of the three-step strategy of China's lunar exploration project, "exploration, landing and stationing", and the ultimate goal
It is to realize the long-term exploration and utilization of the moon, establish a lunar base, develop lunar resources, and expand the space for human activities. This requires more advanced technology, better planning and a longer-term perspective.
In summary, China already has the technical capability to carry out a manned lunar landing, but the delay to achieve this goal until 2030 is due to multiple considerations. First of all, China pursues sound and scientific planning, and will not blindly catch up, but move forward at its own pace. Second, the mission requires overcoming enormous technical challenges and risks, including transporting massive material from the lunar surface back to Earth. China currently has a variety of options for manned lunar landing, but safety is the primary consideration. Finally, China's space program involves multiple important missions that require a balance of resources and priorities, and one mission must not affect the progress of others.
China's lunar exploration project represents China's ambition and strength in the field of space, and also represents China's step by step in the space industry. As time goes by, we look forward to the day when we see Chinese astronauts looking at the stars on the moon, which will be another important milestone in China's space history. Thank you for reading, and if you are interested in China's manned lunar landing program, please like, comment and share to let more people know about this exciting space program. See you in the next issue!
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