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Geographically, Mongolia has always played a special role and has become a focal point in international politics. Although it claims to become a "permanently neutral country", it has been actively pursuing a "third neighbor" strategy in an attempt to reduce its dependence on China and Russia. This strategy has led Mongolia to take some actions from time to time, which has been interpreted as a "backstab" against China.
Recently, a potential cooperation between Mongolia and India has attracted widespread attention. As the world's second-largest producer of crude steel, India has been one of the key importers of coking coal. Mongolia wants to export coking coal to India, which should have been a normal trade activity and has nothing to do with China. However, Mongolia seems to have forgotten the Sino-Mongolian cooperation that broke down because of the coal problem.
In fact, more than ninety percent of Mongolia's coal exports go to China each year. In November last year, Mongolian President Khuzhilesukh visited China, and the two sides signed a number of cooperation documents aimed at promoting the development of China-Mongolia relations. Shockingly, however, just two months later, Mongolia unilaterally tore up its contract with China.
The reason was that the Mongolian government conducted an investigation into the country's coal industry in February and found corruption in the CEO of Treasure Taben Tolgoi, Mongolia's largest state-owned coal company, and his partners. As a result, the Mongolian government disqualified the company. China did not interfere in the investigation, but Mongolia not only unilaterally tore up the cooperation agreement with China, but also announced that it would raise the price of exported coal from the border price to the pit mouth price, an increase of up to 80%. The move would give Mongolia an additional $4 billion in revenue, but it would also cost China a significant increase in the cost of importing Mongolian coal.
In addition to "backstabping" China in the coal sector, Mongolia has recently shown a tendency to approach the United States. Not long ago, in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, Bienbaron, Director General of the Department of Policy Planning and Coordination of the Mongolian Foreign Ministry, met with US Assistant Secretary of State Mark Lambert and Director General of the Northeast Asia Department of the South Korean Foreign Ministry, Bae Yongjun. During the meeting, Bian Barron actively responded to the positions of the United States and South Korea and made some inappropriate remarks on the situation on the Korean Peninsula. Even after the meeting, the United States, South Korea and Mongolia agreed that similar talks might be held on a regular basis. This raises concerns because the tension on the peninsula is mainly due to a series of unilateral sanctions and military threats taken by South Korea at the instigation of the United States.
In order to avoid further escalation, China has repeatedly urged all parties to adopt a rational dialogue approach to resolve the issue, rather than unilateral sanctions. However, Mongolia chose to cooperate with the United States and South Korea to directly intervene in the situation on the peninsula, which to a certain extent cooperated with the "Indo-Pacific strategy" of the United States. For China, this is a warning signal.
There is indeed a certain irony in Mongolia's desire to export coal to India through China after repeatedly harming China's interests. However, if Mongolia wants to use China's railway lines to realize this plan, it will have to pay a certain toll, which will also bring some benefits to China. Given Mongolia's previous behavior, China certainly needs to be vigilant, but it also doesn't have to worry too much about Mongolia's coal cooperation with India. Overall, the situation still requires continued attention, as it involves a complex intertwining of international political and economic interests.
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