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In the context of today's fierce global technology competition, the 5G communication technology of the Chinese company Huawei has led the United States, which has triggered targeted suppression by the United States. In recent years, the United States has adopted a series of restrictive measures, including restricting the sale of EUV lithography machines to Chinese mainland by Dutch lithography giant ASML, prohibiting companies such as Qualcomm from exporting chips to Huawei, and restricting TSMC from manufacturing chips for Huawei. What's more, the United States, together with the Netherlands and Japan, is trying to jointly restrict China's semiconductor processing industry. This series of measures directly threatens China's semiconductor supply chain.
However, in the face of this situation, American chip companies also have to rethink their positions. Companies such as Qualcomm, Intel, and NVIDIA have a large market share in Chinese mainland, so if they stop shipping to Chinese mainland altogether, they will lose huge orders. In order to continue their partnership, they have sought countermeasures to bypass export restrictions and continue to cooperate with China. This effort has attracted widespread attention in the industry.
Qualcomm has said it lost as much as $8 billion in the Chinese market due to export restrictions. As a result, Qualcomm began producing 4G chips specifically designed for the Chinese mainland market to continue supplying Chinese customers such as Huawei. A similar situation has occurred with Nvidia, which has replaced A100 chips with A800 chips to circumvent the export ban and continue to export high-end chips to China. Intel's revenue in Chinese mainland last year directly shrank by a third, in order to stabilize the performance, they launched a CPU customized for the Chinese market, and said that they will provide GPU Max 1450 suitable for different markets. This series of actions shows that American chip companies are unwilling to give up the Chinese market easily.
After all, China accounts for more than 60% of the world's chip purchases, a market that is crucial for U.S. chip companies. Therefore, these companies have spared no effort to find ways to bypass export restrictions and continue to cooperate with China. For products like memory chips, China already has its own alternatives, which means that if U.S. companies don't sell to China, China can choose not to buy these products, further weakening the bargaining power of the United States.
It is worth noting that the US export restrictions actually hurt itself. When they saw that their businesses were badly damaged, they began to quietly loosen export restrictions. This approach has not only resonated in the Chinese mainland market, but also had an impact in the Netherlands. As an important player in the field of lithography machines, the Netherlands has also begun to respond positively to help the export of lithography machines.
A few years ago, Chinese foundry SMIC ordered an EUV lithography machine from ASML in the Netherlands, paying for $1.2 billion in full, but the lithography machine has not been delivered. However, in May this year, ASML suddenly announced that it would sell 100 lithography machines to China, a decision that attracted widespread attention in the industry. The Netherlands is willing to expand its cooperation with China because it is in their own interest. ASML already plans to increase production capacity of DUV lithography machines, which is expected to produce 600 DUV lithography machines and 90 EUV lithography machines by 2026. In addition, they plan to export lithography machines worth 16.1 billion yuan to China this year.
However, the ban has had a negative impact on corporate revenue, especially ASML's EUV lithography machine sales have been affected. The global chip industry is currently in a trough, and companies such as Samsung and TSMC have also taken a series of measures, resulting in a decrease in orders for EUV lithography machines. In stark contrast, Chinese mainland occupies a leading position in the field of mature process chips, and the production of these areas is inseparable from DUV lithography machines. Even the relatively backward DUV lithography machine can meet the current needs of Chinese mainland.
ASML's high-end models of DUV lithography machines have been subject to new regulations. It is estimated that ASML's exports to China this year are mainly 1980Di model DUV lithography machines, mainly used to produce chips above 14 nanometers. At present, the Chinese mainland market is still actively increasing chip production capacity to achieve a 70% self-sufficiency rate of chips by 2025. This requires more lithography machine supply, and ASML is reluctant to give up this important market.
On the other hand, China's self-developed 28nm lithography machine will also be put into mass production, which is expected to provide success for Chinese enterprises
Mature process lithography machine. This development means that China is gradually reducing its dependence on external suppliers and strengthening its technological capabilities. If ASML does not actively maintain cooperation with Chinese enterprises, it may face the risk of being squeezed out of the mainland market by China's own products in the future. In this case, the Netherlands chose to act decisively, regardless of US pressure, to expand the export of lithography machines to the Chinese market to ensure its competitive position in this field.
To sum up, the efforts of the United States, the Netherlands and Japan to jointly restrict China's chip industry have been counterproductive to a certain extent. America's own chip companies bore the brunt of the loss, losing a large number of Chinese mainland orders. To sustain their performance, they have adopted various strategies to bypass export restrictions and continue to supply China. The Netherlands ASML also said that it will strengthen cooperation with China and expand the export of lithography machines to meet the needs of the Chinese market. At the same time, China's self-developed lithography machine is also constantly improving, which may have a positive impact on the domestic supply chain in the future. In the competition of the global semiconductor industry, cooperation and reciprocity are becoming more and more important, after all, the reality is that China has become an indispensable market force. No matter how the situation changes in the future, this game of the chip industry will continue to be fierce, and all parties will continue to adjust their strategies to meet the challenges.
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