Text/Wang Xinxi
A few days ago, according to DigiTimes, Apple ordered fewer iPhone 14s than the iPhone 15. According to senior analyst Luke Lin, Apple ordered 80 million to 90 million smartphones for the iPhone 15 series in the second half of 2023 in August, which is lower than the 90 million to 100 million units ordered in August 2022 for the iPhone 14 in the second half of 2022.
Spring River Water Heating Duck Prophet. Judging from the decline of 10 million units in Apple's stock orders for the iPhone 15, Apple has actually had a market perception, and Huawei's mate60 series is likely to have an impact on the iPhone 15 in the high-end market of more than 5,000 yuan.
Since the launch of the Huawei Mate 60 series on August 29, online pre-sale seconds, offline stores queued, and the popularity is abnormal. According to the "Securities Daily", some supply chain sources revealed to him that in order to ensure the stable supply of goods, Huawei has urgently added orders to the supply chain.
According to Guo Mingxi's latest report, Huawei Mate 60 Pro has strong demand since it went on sale on August 29, and the shipment plan in the second half of 2023 has increased by about 20% to 550-6 million units.
According to the report, the 5G-enabled Mate 40 Pro went on sale in October 2020, with cumulative shipments of about 6 million units 12 months after its release. In comparison, Mate 60 Pro shipments reached 5.5 million to 6 million units in just 4 months after release.
According to the report, according to this market trend, the cumulative shipments of Huawei Mate 60 Pro 12 months after its release are expected to reach at least 12 million units.
In fact, according to media reports, Huawei's online sales of the Mate60 Pro have exceeded 800,000 units in five days, and this is only one model. If you take into account the number of appointments made by agent dealers in each region, this number is likely to be even larger.
According to supply chain news, the Mate60 Pro has been added to 15 million to 17 million units.
In the next 2~3 years, the high-end market pattern may change
CounterPoint Research, a well-known research institution, released a latest market report, according to the data, eight of the top ten mobile phones in the world in 2022 are from the Apple camp, including a number of Apple's iPhone models, in addition, the remaining two models on the list are from Samsung A series, which is quite surprising that none of the domestic mobile phones are on the list.
Huawei's fall to Apple's full is not a joke, but a reality that actually happens in the Chinese market. How many high-end phones have been sold in the Chinese market in the past year?
According to industry statistics, in 2022, Apple's mobile phone sales in China will exceed 400 billion yuan, and in the past year, the cumulative sales (shipments) in China will be about 54.32 million units.
From the perspective of supply chain stocking and rush purchases in overseas markets (Japan, Europe), Huawei's mate60 Pro order stock is 15 million ~ 17 million, counting the sales of other models and overseas markets, Huawei mate60 series conservative sales of 20 million units is likely to happen.
Last year, Apple's sales of new iPhones (52.43 million units) accounted for 85% of the market share of China's high-end market (more than 5,000 yuan), and if Huawei's mate60 series can reach 20 million sales, it may cut 31% of the cake of China's high-end market (new machines).
If the other manufacturers have the same market share at the top end (15%), the market share for Apple's new iPhone may only be 54%. It is roughly estimated that in the next year, the impact of Huawei's Mate 60 series, Apple's market share in China's high-end mobile phones will decline by 30%.
And that's just the beginning. According to Guo Mingqi's report, Huawei's mobile phone shipments in 2023 will increase by 65% year-on-year to 38 million units, and Huawei mobile phone shipments are expected to reach at least 60 million units in 2024.
If Huawei's annual shipments reach 60 million units (2024), according to the proportion of Huawei's high-end mobile phones and the annual sales of China's high-end mobile phone market, Apple's position in China's high-end mobile phone market may not be stable.
iPhone 15 orders are reduced, the heat is reduced, swallowing the bitter fruit of squeezing toothpaste
In fact, over the years, Apple's lack of innovation has actually been a consensus, and especially in the 3 years that Huawei has been sanctioned, Apple squeezed toothpaste almost intensified, because Apple is very clear that in the high-end market there is no competitor environment, product iteration does not need to be so urgent.
Ironically, the iPhone 13 series, the least upgraded mobile phone in history, Duan Yongping, one of Apple's shareholders at the time, called it "as uninnovative as in previous years." At that time, industry insiders pointed out that the iPhone 13 is almost a copy of the previous generation of Pro, with the same image and display quality, larger storage space, more affordable price, and newer chips.
But the iPhone 13 is Apple's best-selling phone in recent years. This trend of small iterations still selling big has also made Apple realize that "innovation and making money may not be equated", making Apple fall into a kind of "innovation inertia".
In fact, this time everyone frantically buys Huawei mate60, itself is an emotional irrational consumption factor, because Huawei still has some shortcomings, such as chip performance compared to Apple's top flagship, there is still a gap.
But behind this, on the one hand, some consumers are silent protests against Apple's lack of innovation and shortcomings such as battery life signals that have existed in the past, in response to the news that the iPhone 15 series orders are less than the previous generation, a high praise netizen said: "You ask him what has been updated in three years?" Is there any improvement in the charging signal for heat life? The downturn is just the beginning, and the crash is retribution. "Is the signal problem a gap between the communicator and you or is it a product design problem?" How many generations has this been? ”
On the other hand, Huawei took out its self-developed chip + 5G satellite call mobile phone under the extreme suppression of the United States, which caused a great shock to the entire global science and technology community, and also increased its own brand premium and gained more respect.
This respect from consumers has also led to a rush to buy. At present, not only Chinese consumers are rushing to buy, but also Japanese consumers. Recently, some Japanese netizens complained that Huawei's Mate60 series was robbed on the purchasing website in Japan and Europe, with a premium of more than 150%! Because Mate60 is only sold in China for the time being, it has not been sold abroad, and Japan can only buy it in China through the daigou website, and the markup is usually more than 50%!
This undercurrent may well be Apple's biggest crisis moment in recent years. After all, Huawei's 5G mobile phone completed under complete de-Americanization, which no company in the world can do except Huawei.
The shock this brings to the technology community is real, because everyone knows that it is extremely difficult, for this breakthrough from 0 to 1, everyone has maintained a high degree of tolerance for the gap between Huawei mate60 and Apple at the chip performance level, which itself means that people maintain higher expectations for Huawei's future development from 1 to N.
From the current point of view, the popularity of Apple's iPhone 15 has also been surpassed by Huawei's mate60 series, which is a fact that everyone can perceive. Behind this is that everyone's innovation expectations for the iPhone 15 have weakened.
At present, the iPhone 15 Pro and Pro Max have been determined to use titanium alloy middle frame, and the biggest upgrade is the addition of C port, which may be the two points with high attention at present, but this new product and big innovation may still be missing.
In addition to 5G and chips, Huawei's current ability to attract much attention is satellite call, which is a feature that has attracted much attention and attention in some overseas markets, it is not clear whether the iPhone 15 also has similar functions and capabilities, if the iPhone 15 is missing in the satellite call function, the iPhone 15 will be under greater public opinion pressure and sales pressure.
In addition, how the sales of the iPhone 15 series will eventually be, it is still necessary to observe whether the quality and quality control of the Indian iPhone 15 are in line with expectations, this year is the first time, India almost at the same time as China to produce the latest iPhone models.
It has previously been exposed that the yield of the iPhone shell produced by the Indian company Tata Group is only about 50%, which caused an uproar, and if the quality of Indian-made iPhones has quality control problems, then Apple's sales will be hit harder.
Therefore, the current situation is stronger than people, and Apple's iPhone 15 orders are reduced, which is clearly perceived. From this perspective, the apple may have swallowed the bitter fruit of squeezing toothpaste.
Epilogue:
In the future, Huawei may gradually make up for its shortcomings, including chips, supply chains, systems and other levels, and may gradually strengthen its home field advantage - 5G + communication. Apple has made a lot of money in the greenhouse environment over the past three years, but that era is likely to pass.
Face the reality of high-intensity competition with Huawei in the next few years, or the toughest battle Apple is facing right now. Apple is facing a battle to maintain the position of the Chinese market, who is the main ups and downs in the high-end market, the next 3 years, the variables are great, the market pattern is likely to change, we wait and see.
Author: Wang Xinxi TMT Senior Reviewer This article is not reprinted without permission