Before reading this article, we sincerely invite you to click "Follow", so that you can consult a series of high-quality articles at any time, and at the same time facilitate discussion and sharing, thank you for your support~
At the end of January this year, under the leadership of the United States, the United States, Japan and the Netherlands reached a "tripartite agreement" aimed at restricting the export of lithography machines to China.
After the signing of the agreement, unlike Japan's positive response, the Netherlands was very passive in its restrictions on China.
Recently, the Netherlands announced that it will resume the supply of lithography machines to China in September, temporarily lifting the ban on lithography machines in China, and China and the Netherlands will continue to cooperate with existing projects and increase production exchanges.
Why is the Netherlands so negative towards the United States and China? What does this mean?
Dutch "rebellion"
In 2019, the United States launched a series of bans against China, including a ban on the export of chips to China. Not only that, the United States also signed a tripartite agreement with Japan and the Netherlands, the world's old countries of lithography machines, to "restrict the export of semiconductor production equipment".
After the agreement was signed, the Netherlands complied with the agreement with the United States, and immediately after Japan issued the implementation of restrictions, it also immediately restricted 23 kinds of lithography equipment such as lithography machines and chip semiconductors in China, while the Netherlands announced that DUV lithography machines, which occupy the largest market in China, will no longer be sold to China.
But is that really the case? After the signing of the treaty, the Netherlands maintained a "verbal agreement" with the United States, and actually used various means to "export to China".
However, with some factors changing, ASML of the Netherlands recently announced that the company will temporarily lift the ban on China and continue to cooperate with existing projects. However, this temporary lifting of the ban will only last until 2024.
Although the Netherlands has temporarily lifted the ban on China, such a transaction can only last for four months, so why did the Netherlands risk lifting the ban?
The reason why the Netherlands announced the "four-month exchange" with the Chinese lithography machine
For this Sino-US "chip war", countries have sided with the United States. The Netherlands and Japan are no exception, but the Netherlands is less eager to ban chips than Japan.
After the United States signed a tripartite agreement with the Netherlands and Japan, on July 23, Japan quickly imposed a ban on China's semiconductor industry and increased chip export trade with China. Naturally, Japan became a sharp knife in the hands of the United States to stab China.
Japan has not only restricted the export of equipment to China, but has also expanded the scope of exports to China on this basis. Such "flattery" made Japan eat the "evil fruit" one step ahead of the Netherlands.
According to the statement reality released by the Japanese Ministry of Finance, in the second quarter of 2023, Nikon's lithography machine sold only 6 units, down 60% year-on-year, not only that, because the profit of Nikon caused by the lithography machine fell directly to 78.6%, equivalent to an economic loss of more than 3.29 billion yen.
Such a loss rate not only shocked Japan, but also shocked the Netherlands. But this shock is not over, South Korea because it wants to join the "alliance" of the United States also sided with the United States and imposed a ban on China.
As a result, South Korea's blow even surpassed Japan's, becoming the first place in the economic losses of semiconductor companies. According to the analysis of the Korea Economic News, "In the months of the ban on China, Samsung's external semiconductor companies disappeared by 14 trillion won, the operating rate of the entire semiconductor production line was only 40%, and the profit plummeted by 98.3%. ”
Such a tragic gain made the Netherlands have to stop following the footsteps of the United States and start thinking about how important the Chinese market is to their countries in the lithography industry.
The conclusion was expected in the Netherlands, "The Chinese market is very important!" ”
In 2018, China's total foreign trade imports totaled 14.09 trillion yuan, of which the amount of imported chips alone reached one-seventh of the total, amounting to about 2.06 trillion yuan, which is 14.62% of the total imports.
According to the "G20 National Innovation Competitiveness Yellow Book", 80% of China's high-end chips rely on imports.
Even after the ban imposed by the United States, China's lithography machine imports continued to rise, and in 2022, China's total imports of lithography machines from the Netherlands reached 2.548 billion US dollars, accounting for 64.3%.
Such a huge amount of import funds and markets, so that the Netherlands has to be cautious and cautious towards the Chinese market, once the Chinese market is lost, such consequences will cause a lot of damage to the Dutch domestic economy.
Under these various circumstances, the Netherlands "has a policy and a countermeasure" against the United States and begins to "act in a negative way". On the surface, he obeyed the orders of the United States, and secretly made a deal with China for lithography machines behind his back.
The lifting of the ban in the Netherlands expired in January 2024
According to foreign media reports, the Netherlands temporarily lifted the ban on lithography machines against China from September 2023 to the end of 2024, and the Netherlands chose to trade with China for four months despite huge pressure and consequences.
This time illustrates two contradictory but legitimate issues.
The first problem is that the Netherlands obstructed the follow-up plan of the United States and privately lifted the ban on Chinese lithography machines in order to obtain the Chinese market.
The second question, the lifting of the ban lasted only four months, which is enough to show that the United States has a great deterrent power against the Netherlands.
For the interests of its own country, the Netherlands cannot be cut off by the "hegemonic heart" of the United States, so even if it meets sanctions against the United States or other consequences, the Netherlands is willing to bear this risk to continue the import and export trade of lithography machines with China.
However, because the United States has a great influence in the Western world, the Netherlands does not have enough strength and skills to resist the future sanctions of the United States, so it can only "default" in the time it can control, so as to obtain greater profits.
What can China gain in this situation, and what to do next
The brief lifting of restrictions on China in the Netherlands for four months can relieve China's pressure on semiconductors, lithography machines and other industries to a certain extent, thereby easing the chip ban.
But this has not changed the reality that the Netherlands still has a chip ban on China, in 2024, the Netherlands will still resume the ban on lithography machines in China, and at the same time, the United States will not relax its control and suppression of China's semiconductor industry.
Therefore, in this short four-month relief period, China should seize the opportunity to strengthen research on advanced lithography machines, accelerate the process of independent research and development, and accelerate cooperation with other countries, maintain good trade exchanges, and smash the blockade restrictions of the United States.
Take into account the promotion and application of low-end chips and the R&D process of high-end chips to improve chip efficiency. Pay attention to the stability of the chip industry supply chain and avoid unnecessary "supply cuts".
At present, China's chip process is also continuing to develop.
epilogue
In the face of interests and markets, no country can refuse, and the Netherlands is no exception. It is hoped that there will be more opportunities to reach a consensus with the Netherlands and accelerate win-win cooperation in lithography machines.