NDRC heavy! A-shares and Hong Kong stocks counterattacked, the yield of government bonds soared, and foreign capital bought more than 6 billion
Last week, we repeatedly stressed that the pullback of A-shares in August was mainly real estate and local bonds that caused the market's confidence in the economy to fall to the bottom, and the continuous sharp outflow of foreign capital was also due to macroeconomic concerns, although the benefits such as "reducing stamp duty and limiting holdings" were heavy enough, but could only boost market sentiment at the trading level, and A-shares really wanted to reverse and need to rebuild the market's confidence in economic recovery, and this confidence came from real estate and local bonds.
We directly gave judgment in the weekend article, due to last week's real estate combination punch, as well as the strength of the gold, silver and ten economy, PMI has also rebounded for two consecutive months, the mainland economy will stabilize and recover, and the real estate policy has also solved the problem of foreign confidence. Boosted by recovery expectations, foreign capital will return this week, A-shares will continue to rebound, and recovery-related sectors such as finance, consumption, real estate chain, and Hong Kong stocks will strengthen. From the perspective of the market, today it is indeed the recovery line of steel, coal, nonferrous metals, building materials, and consumption that leads the rise.
We also pointed out that compared with the stock market's hesitation about economic recovery, the commodity market is more active, the South China Commodity Index has reached a new high, Shanghai copper is approaching the previous high, Shanghai aluminum has broken through a new high, and the A-share non-ferrous sector has the hope of making up for the rise, and the non-ferrous sector rose sharply last Friday and this Monday.
Not only the commodity market, but also the bond market feedback is also positive, after China's 10-year government bond yield fell above 2.5% due to interest rate cuts, after the recent real estate portfolio punch, China's 10-year government bond yield soared to 2.66%, the bond market bearish equity assets strengthened, and stock-bond seesaw appeared.
Today's intraday is once again positive, the National Development and Reform Commission has set up the Private Economic Development Bureau, with the goal of promoting the development and growth of the private economy.
Specifically, as of press time, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.15%, the ChiNext Index by 0.44%, the Hang Seng Index by 2.42%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index by 2.64%. The turnover of the two cities has been enlarged compared with Friday, and the most important thing is that foreign capital began to buy back, which is in line with the judgment we gave on Sunday, foreign capital depends on real estate. With the return of foreign capital and the entry of incremental funds, the rebound of A-shares is expected to turn into a reversal.