Source: Real estate gossip girl Xiao Ai
01
Hello everyone, I am Xiao Ai, a real estate gossip girl.
Yesterday morning, Guangzhou announced that it would not recognize the loan, the circle of friends is very calm, the stock market real estate sector is also calm, everything seems to be within expectations, the so-called nephew playing the lantern - as usual (uncle).
And that night, after Shenzhen also began to announce that it would not recognize the loan, my circle of friends began to boil. Not only did the intermediary begin to make a noise, but some pessimistic self-media also began to waver.
The spring of real estate, here again?
In the eyes of everyone, recognizing a house or not a loan can be said to be one of the last tricks in first-tier cities. It directly relaxes the down payment restrictions for improving replacement and new citizens, and in addition to directly discounting house prices, it is only relaxing the purchase of social security years.
Obviously, this level of policy is introduced, and you say that it is completely ineffective. At the very least, it can enhance the confidence of some whites entering the market, and it can also increase a wave of trading volume in the short term.
However, it should be noted that if you recognize a house or not a loan, the down payment is less and the loan is more, and the starting point of this policy is that there are no new customers, engage in old customers, and there is no adjustment of the total house price.
You know, recently bought a house in Shenzhen, in fact, many transactions have been lower than the guidance price, and the required down payment is far less than 30% down payment, or even 0 down payment!
▲ With a monthly payment of 30,000 yuan to buy a house, buyers can also set out hundreds of thousands of funds to slowly repay the mortgage. However, it is such a simple way to get on the car, and still no one buys a house.
In the same way, for some high-quality communities that are higher than the guidance price, it is difficult to buy a house with a down payment of 30%, because the part above the guidance price needs to be borne by yourself. Only the guidance price is equal to the actual transaction price, and then there is hope for a down payment.
On the whole, the current Shenzhen property market relies on guidance prices to support house prices without avalanche. Recognizing housing without recognizing loans can only be said to release a wave of demand and activate the market environment, and it is far from the point of promoting market reversal.
In fact, to restore real estate confidence, the most important thing is to increase income and employment through industrial transformation and upgrading, and cannot rely solely on loosening policies.
▲ Just the day before yesterday, Huawei released the mate60 mobile phone, which is a domestic 5G mobile phone in the true sense, with the chip number of domestic 2035-CN, completely breaking the chip blockade in the United States.
I think this news, even in the real estate sector, is much more important than the relaxation of loan restrictions. Because it represents our upgrading in the high-tech industry, and only when the industry is upgraded and income is guaranteed, the real estate industry can have a head.
02
From an economic point of view, the opening in the first-tier cities is indeed more suitable for Guangzhou to open, Guangzhou has the worst economy among the first-tier cities (GDP growth rate in the first half of the year was only 4.7%, even lower than the national average of 5.5%), and it is also the most dependent on land finance, and the industrial structure is also based on manufacturing, so every time the first-tier cities relax in the past, Guangzhou is the first to relax, which is not uncommon.
And this is also the main reason why yesterday morning, Guangzhou relaxed everyone did not orgasm, Shenzhen relaxed everyone but climax.
In this regard, Beijing Real Estate Guanlan pointed out particularly sharply that Guangzhou's first-out policy shows that Guangzhou has officially withdrawn from first-tier cities - Guangzhou originally had a low down payment, in fact, most of the down payment was only 40% when recognizing a house and a loan, and it became 30% after recognizing a house or not recognizing a loan, only down 10% (Guangzhou's non-general line only has area restrictions, no unit price and total price requirements, and is more than 144 square meters is considered non-ordinary residence). Now that house prices and transaction volume cannot be sustained, Guangzhou took the lead in playing cards, and only the "fig leaf" of limited purchase remained, and from the property market, it has announced its withdrawal from first-tier cities in advance.
And what about Shenzhen? I think from everyone's reaction to each city, the three first-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen have a heavy weight, and each represents three dimensions.
For example, the Shenzhen property market represents financial leverage. In the four major cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the leverage ratio of Shenzhen buyers is the highest, so when the guidance price of forced deleveraging is introduced, the Shenzhen property market fell the worst, the overall decline reached 30%-40%, and some regions even fell back to 2018.
▲Shenzhen household leverage, ranking first among the four first-tier cities. Of course, the best thing has to be me.
▲ It is also because of the prevalence of leverage speculation that the self-occupancy rate of the Shenzhen property market in 2020 is only 19% (now it is only 23%), which is not only lower than the 41% self-occupancy rate in Guangzhou, but also far lower than Beijing and Shanghai (57% and 59% respectively).
Shanghai represents an order of magnitude of transactions. It can be said that the Shanghai property market has the largest turnover in the country, and Beijing is only 60% of Shanghai's in terms of transaction volume.
▲In the first half of this year, the trading volume of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen was compared. It can be seen that the most reasonable structure of inventory and volume is Shanghai, with a clearance cycle of only 7.8 months; Guangzhou and Beijing have serious inventory, with a clearance cycle of more than 15 months. Although the proportion of inventory in Shenzhen is also very large, after all, the urban area is small, and the absolute quantity is still not much.
03
Sometimes I often think that Beijing has a permanent population of 21.84 million and Shanghai has a permanent population of 24.75 million, and the self-occupancy rate of the two cities is similar, with a total deposit of 22.5 trillion yuan in Beijing and 18.8 trillion yuan in Shanghai.
Later, I understood that the Beijing property market is more administrative power than market power; In the Shanghai property market, market power is greater than administrative power.
Why do you say that? Looking back at Beijing's journey, we can see that the administrative force has implemented the Beijing property market for more than 20 years and led the country:
Thirteen years ago, no one ever pioneered the lottery to buy a car;
Fifteen years ago, demolition and relocation arose;
Ten years ago, the non-capital functional dredging began to be arranged;
Ten years ago, it began to arrange to move central enterprises to Xiong'an;
Ten years ago, Daxing shed reform;
Five years ago, the city government was moved to Tongzhou;
Five years ago, all shantytown renovation projects were halted overnight;
Five years ago, Xicheng District abolished the nearby enrollment system and replaced it with district-wide lottery admission;
Five years ago, Haidian District implemented school zoning, and you can forcibly adjust even if you live closer;
In order to solve the rigid demand, "public rental housing, low-cost rental housing, and co-ownership housing" have been launched one after another, which not only solved the housing problem, but also moved everyone outside the core area of the capital.
These operations, whether it is the demolition of shed renovation or the policy of school district housing and co-ownership housing, have had a wide impact on the whole country. And this fully proves one thing, that is, in the Beijing property market, market behavior does not play a decisive role. If Beijing wants to implement a certain policy, it is not only considering the situation of the Beijing market, but also considering the impact and significance of the whole country.
On the other hand, in Shanghai, because the Shanghai property market was marketized earlier, the Shanghai property market paid more attention to the adjustment of supply and demand. Today's Shanghai property market can be said to be the healthiest property market in the country.
It is precisely because of this that I think that the probability of Shanghai introducing a policy of recognizing houses and not recognizing loans in the short term is very small, because it is not needed at present, and Shanghai can keep this policy to introduce in a timely manner;
Beijing has a certain chance of issuing a house recognition but not a loan, on the one hand, because of more inventory, on the other hand, because Beijing has greater policy influence than Guangzhou and Shenzhen.