The Game of Taiwanese Politics: Ko Wenzhe, Gou Taiming and Electoral Prospects
Recently, a series of remarkable changes have taken place in Taiwan's political arena, which have aroused widespread attention. Ke Wenzhe is now the first in the polls, and his self-confidence and ambition are gradually revealed. He embarked on a series of initiatives that seemed to try to play a more prominent role on the political stage. First, Ke Wenzhe used the so-called "hen with chicken" strategy to try to win more than ten nominations for more than ten seats in a specific constituency in order to win the support of Blue Camp voters. Second, he has a tough attitude towards "blue and white", insisting that he will only consider it when the other party takes the initiative to come to the door to negotiate. Behind this attitude highlights his key role in this political game. Third, Ke Wenzhe is constantly seeking new topics, trying to push the polls beyond "white and blue" and into the level of "white eating blue". He chose to adopt the policy proposition put forward by the Kuomintang that year, intending to win the support of the Blue Camp voters. Finally, his attitude towards Gou was also quite dramatic, and at a meeting on June 29, Ke Wenzhe apparently viewed Gou with a mocking attitude. This series of actions and attitudes all show Ke Wenzhe's current self-confidence and pride.
However, there is never a lack of variables in the political game. Gou is one of the key variables, and he may either become Ke Wenzhe's "hood" or subvert Ko's polls. Gou has sucked Hou Youyi's 2 percent approval rating in some cases, and also pulled 2 percent approval from Lai Qingde. However, when he faced Ke Wenzhe, his influence was as high as 8%. If you add his own 4% support rate, once he runs, the impact on Ke Wenzhe cannot be underestimated, and may even cause Ke's polls to fall to about 20%. This is why the Kuomintang has repeatedly called for a solution to the problems of Gou and Han Yu to avoid the further rise of Ko Wenzhe. The fate of these two people seems to have affected the fate of the entire Kuomintang and decided the life and death of the party.
Gou's role should not be underestimated. He has the ability to attract supporters of Hou Youyi and Ke Wenzhe, and has the potential to win 30% support across Taiwan. This makes the political game no longer a simple arithmetic problem, but more like an intellectual competition that requires geometric thinking to break through.
However, Gou is not an easy variable to control. His wandering attitude became the source of Ke Wenzhe's pride. As long as Gou returns to the Kuomintang camp, Ke Wenzhe's true face will be revealed. Therefore, Ke Wenzhe should not be too proud. If Gou does leave, the likely outcome is that both Hou Youyi and Ke Wenzhe will be affected, while the DPP will benefit. However, this time the situation is different from 2019. In 2019, Gou was hesitant, and this time, he was waiting for the moment to hope that the Kuomintang would solve its internal problems. However, the Kuomintang did not seem willing to reach such a solution, making Gou's attitude even more wavering.
For the Kuomintang, dealing with Gou's issue is crucial. Gou's influence should not be underestimated, and his key few supporters can influence the course of the election and may even overthrow the two major parties. However, this influence is not simply a product, but is closely related to his results, not his process.
Gou has deep affection for the KMT, but his influence can wane when the KMT sees him as a troublemaker, an adversary. Therefore, understanding Gou's motives and finding out why he ran away is crucial to solving this problem. Once Gou returns to the Kuomintang, Ke Wenzhe's polls will inevitably decline, and Ke Wenzhe's pride will be challenged. Therefore, in the face of various political analyses and judgments, especially electoral issues, it is not simply from the position of one party or the other, but requires more in-depth analysis.
In short, the changes and games in Taiwan's politics involve important players such as Ke Wenzhe and Gou, as well as the direction of the election. Ke Wenzhe's pride and Gou's uncertain attitude constitute the double of this political game
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Double variables mutually constrain the entire political landscape. Mr. Ko's self-confidence may be a temporary appearance, and Gou's political status could be challenged once he returns. Therefore, Ke Wenzhe must not be too intoxicated with the current situation, and must keep a clear head and be ready to deal with changes at any time.
However, the direction of this political game is not easy to predict. Gou's role and attitude are also evolving. In 2019, his attitude was ambiguous, and now, he is waiting for the right moment. However, this timing was not something that the KMT was willing to provide. Gou's influence and decisive critical minority support make him a key figure who can shape the course of elections and possibly even redefine the political landscape.
However, Gou's return to the team will not be easy. He has deep feelings for the Kuomintang, but in the face of the complicated situation within the party, he may have chosen to keep his distance and look for the role that best suits him. On the Kuomintang side, how to deal with Gou's attitude and role will determine the future of the party. Gou's key minority of supporters can shape the entire electoral landscape, and whether he can play a decisive role in this political game depends on the final outcome, not his process of change.
In general, the complex game of Taiwanese politics is full of uncertainty and variables. Ke Wenzhe's pride and Gou's wandering attitude have made the political landscape constantly changing. The evolution of Gou's role as a key figure, and whether he will re-engage in political competition, will affect Taiwan's future political direction. However, only by seeing the final election results can we truly understand the outcome of this political game.