The animal husbandry industry in 2023 can be described in one sentence: "a few joys and a few sorrows, raising pigs and chickens and drinking wine, and a few living on the streets."
In the context of this harvest year, the market situation of the livestock industry has also begun to change. Egg prices have skyrocketed, and egg prices have risen staggeringly; The price of beef is relatively stable and grounded, making people feel a little comfort and comfort; Pork prices, on the other hand, fluctuate and unpredictable. So, what exactly is the situation in the market? Let's find out together.
First, beef prices: grounded and reassuring
This year's beef price is relatively cheap, even a low price of 30 yuan a pound. This gives people a bit of comfort in an environment where prices are rising. However, beef prices vary widely from region to region. Beef prices in some counties and villages are generally lower than in third-, fourth- and fifth-tier cities, while prices in third-, fourth- and fifth-tier cities are lower than in first- and second-tier cities. The price of beef in some cities even exceeds 50 yuan per catty. Despite this, overall beef prices are on a downward trend.
There are many factors behind this down-to-earth beef price. On the one hand, the number of cattle continues to increase. Affected by factors such as the mask incident, the number of cattle has continued to rise in recent years. Data show that at the end of 2022, the number of beef cattle in mainland China was as high as 102.16 million, an increase of nearly 10% over 2018. This large increase in inventory has also suppressed the rise in beef prices to some extent. On the other hand, the large influx of imported beef has also had a certain impact on the market supply. Higher quantities of imported beef and low prices further drove down the price of beef.
Second, pork prices: a big change in face makes people scratch their heads
The trend of pork prices is unpredictable, up and down, it is really confusing. Pig prices fluctuated sideways, but pork prices performed well and continued to rise. Rising pig prices have driven pork prices to soar, while falling pig prices have not led to lower prices. The sharp swings in pork prices have filled the market with uncertainty and confused people.
The price of pork in some areas has broken through the price range of 13 yuan to 16 yuan per catty, and some areas have approached the 20 yuan mark. The market is very helpless about the sharp fluctuations in pork prices. There are many factors that contribute to the instability of pork prices. On the one hand, pork consumption increased, and after entering July, pork consumption gradually increased. The early stimulation of more than 10 million families across the country to hold school promotion banquets, as well as the seasonal consumption season after the beginning of autumn in August, further promoted the growth of pork consumption. On the other hand, the recent problem of nuclear wastewater discharge in Japan has had a greater impact on seafood consumption prefectures, and some consumers have turned to pork, resulting in a further increase in pork prices.
However, the future direction of pork prices remains uncertain. It is expected that with the peak consumption season after September, combined with other factors, pork prices still have room to continue to rise. According to personal cautious observation, the probability that the price of pork around the Spring Festival may reach 18 or 9 yuan a pound is still relatively large.
Third, egg prices: rising to the sky, consumers are speechless
Compared to beef and pork, the increase in egg prices was more pronounced. Egg prices continued to strengthen, even breaking through the price mark of 7 yuan a pound, which surprised people. The decline in the stock of laying hens and seasonal factors have led to a decline in egg production rate and tight supply, which is one of the main reasons for the increase in egg prices. In addition, the recent increase in pork prices and the discharge of nuclear wastewater in Japan have further pushed up egg prices.
However, my personal view on the outlook for egg prices is more cautious. Although the current egg price continues to rise, after the peak of stocking such as Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, coupled with the influence of factors such as the decline in weather temperature and the recovery of egg production rate of laying hens, there is a certain risk of egg prices falling around mid-September. Market conditions are volatile, and we need to pay close attention to market dynamics in order to arrange purchases reasonably and cope with the pressure of rising meat prices.
In short, egg prices have "risen sky-high", beef prices are grounded, pork prices have "changed greatly", and market conditions are changeable. In such a market environment, we need to adjust our buying strategy in a timely manner according to market dynamics and respond flexibly to price fluctuations. Whether it is beef, pork or eggs, the market needs continuous attention and rational judgment. Only in this way can we seize opportunities in a market with high meat prices and effectively deal with risks.