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The United States has conducted many wargames in the face of China's military intervention in the Taiwan Strait issue. Initially, these deductions almost always showed that China would win and the United States would lose. However, the results of recent exercises have begun to change, perhaps out of the need for morale, and the results of the US wargames in the Taiwan Strait have begun to show that the United States, despite being hit hard by the PLA, can still achieve the so-called "crushing victory." Although not many believe this conclusion, the United States maintains this posture.
However, American military expert Robert Farley recently made a rare point. He believes that the possibility of escalation of the Sino-US military conflict may be higher than many expect, because US military hegemony has penetrated into the minds of most Americans, making it difficult for them to accept a major military defeat of the United States. This became even more evident after the United States avoided discussing the War to Resist US Aggression and Aid Korea and the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan.
Farley believes that there are three scenarios in which a military conflict between China and the United States in the Taiwan Strait could escalate into World War III. First, China directly sank the US nuclear-powered aircraft carrier. China is unlikely to abandon its attack on U.S. nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, and the PLA's anti-ship ballistic missiles have the capability to sink U.S. nuclear-powered carriers in wartime.
U.S. nuclear-powered carriers usually have thousands of crew members on board. Given that the PLA is unlikely to attack only nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, it may also launch attacks against escorting U.S. surface ships. This would result in thousands of casualties in the U.S. Navy in a short period of time. If the US government continues to incite public opinion under such circumstances, then the possibility of the war situation in the Taiwan Strait escalating into "three wars" will increase.
The second scenario is that even if the US military inflicts significant damage on the PLA, such as sinking a Chinese aircraft carrier, severely damaging China's amphibious landing fleet, or even directly attacking PLA airfields and military ports on the Chinese mainland, it will not shake the PLA's determination to retake Taiwan. The PLA firmly believes that preserving China's sovereignty and territorial integrity is worth the huge cost.
In the process, the greater the losses inflicted by the US military, the more determined the PLA will fight back. This may lead to the military conflict between China and the United States no longer limited to the Taiwan Strait region, but will continue to escalate and evolve into the "three wars".
In the third scenario, the United States is doomed, but to avoid a complete rout, the U.S. government may decide to escalate the scale of the conflict, hoping to stop the war by forcing China to make concessions. However, the actions of the US government in this case remain questionable, as the United States has never been fully committed to military conflicts in the past.
In fact, military intervention in China's Taiwan Strait issue is not the desired outcome of the US government. Maintaining the status quo in the Taiwan Strait and continuing to be used as a means of containing China is what the United States pursues. From this perspective, the United States is indeed worried that a voice similar to Robert Farley will emerge that is trying to create tension over the Taiwan Strait in order to prevent China from taking decisive action.
However, with China, the United States and Russia all possessing nuclear weapons, a so-called "third world war" is unlikely. Taking the Russian-Ukrainian conflict as an example, it has been nearly a year since the outbreak of the conflict, although many people worried that it would escalate into "three wars", but this is not the case. Despite repeated threats to use nuclear weapons, both sides have exercised restraint in their actions.
This suggests that as long as China still possesses nuclear weapons with sufficient deterrence, the United States is unlikely to be involved in a so-called World War III with China. Nuclear war is bound to hit the United States hard, and the United States has not been forced to use nuclear weapons on the Taiwan Strait issue.
This gives us two revelations. First, according to China's actual needs, appropriately increase its nuclear weapons capabilities to ensure that the United States remains calm in all situations. This is also in line with the meaning of the cold joke, if the United States says that you have weapons of mass destruction, it is better to actually have.
Second, continue to strengthen the PLA's conventional combat capabilities, especially anti-aircraft carrier capabilities. There is no need to worry about how the damage to U.S. nuclear-powered aircraft carriers will trigger a U.S. response. As long as China holds nuclear weapons as the bottom line, even if the United States sends a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, we will still be able to respond.
In short, under the influence of nuclear weapons, the likelihood of a third world war is relatively comparative
Small. While military conflicts and tensions may arise in some cases, both sides are well aware of the horrific consequences of nuclear war. In this context, the two sides often seek to resolve their disputes through diplomatic means in order to avoid jeopardizing the entire international order and the future of human existence.
However, while the deterrent power of nuclear weapons is real, the need to address real threats cannot be ignored. China needs to continue to strengthen military modernization, especially in anti-carrier capabilities. This will not only help improve defense capabilities, but also help to achieve a better position in diplomatic negotiations. In international affairs, military power is often an important basis for supporting negotiations and consultations.
In addition, China should also make active efforts at the diplomatic level to promote the settlement of the Taiwan Strait issue through peaceful means. Maintaining communication and cooperation with the United States and other relevant countries to avoid misunderstandings and miscalculations will help reduce the risk of escalation. As two important countries in the world, China and the United States shoulder the responsibility of jointly safeguarding international peace and stability.
In short, despite the tension in the Taiwan Strait region, the possibility of a third world war is relatively small based on practical considerations. Both sides are well aware of the serious consequences of nuclear war, and there is pressure in the international community to settle disputes peacefully. China should continue to strengthen its national defense capabilities, while actively seeking ways to peacefully resolve the Taiwan Strait issue, so as to contribute to regional stability and peaceful development.
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