Russia's "Wagner" mercenaries have always been an armed group that has changed the tone of Western countries, they have rushed to the battlefield of Russia and Ukraine, defeating the Ukrainian army and NATO mercenaries, they have extensive contacts in Africa, and Niger, where a coup is breaking out, has publicly invited Wagner to garrison the country to counter the US and French troops. But yesterday, on the evening of August 23, Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group, was flying from Moscow to St. Petersburg on a private jet in an accident that caused the plane to crash, killing all 10 people, including Prigozhin himself.
(CCTV news screenshot, Prigozhin, owner of the Wagner Mercenary Group, died in a plane crash)
According to official Russian sources, Prigozhin's small private jet was a Legacy 600 jet produced by Embraer, with the serial number RA-02795. There were a total of 3 crew members on board, as well as 7 passengers, in addition to Prigozhin, Wagner's founder Utkin, and several senior Wagner commanders. To put it more bluntly, Wagner's top management was "one pot end".
(Prigozhin's Legacy jet)
Such a major event is tantamount to a "decapitation" blow for Wagner, and there are probably several possibilities for such an "accident":
First, the mechanical failure of the aircraft. The aircraft is a highly sophisticated mechanical equipment, even if it is completely in accordance with the operating procedures for inspection and maintenance, can not eliminate the possibility of aircraft failure, although according to Prigozhin's character, he has always been cautious, but no amount of caution can avoid accidents. And it should be pointed out that due to the Russian-Ukrainian war, the entire West has imposed "hellish sanctions" on Russia, including many Western equipment parts, such as Boeing aircraft parts, are prohibited from being exported to Russia, so Wagner's private jets may also be undermaintained, which will undoubtedly greatly increase the probability of aircraft failure.
(Aeroflot's Boeing 777 civil aircraft, as early as the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the United States threatened to remotely shut down the flight control system of Russian Boeing aircraft, this operation can also be used for aircraft such as Legacy)
It should also be pointed out that the Legacy 600 jet aircraft is not developed and produced by Russia itself, but purchased from Embraer, because Brazil does not have an independent aviation industry and technology, so the aircraft basically belongs to various Western parts, saved up by Brazil, and then labeled with the "Made in Brazil" trademark. It is precisely because the aircraft is saved with Western equipment, so Western countries can completely manipulate any equipment, and when necessary, they can completely create the accident of "aircraft failure". After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war last year, the United States threatened to shut down the flight control system of all Boeing aircraft in Russia and let these planes crash, so since the flight control of Boeing aircraft can be turned off remotely, what about private small planes like Legsay?
(Wagner "24-hour rebellion", where is this rebellion?) Totally a Victory Parade)
The second possibility is that the Russian government will kill the killer. Although Wagner has made outstanding achievements in the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield, after all, Prigozhin is the one who once led troops to rebel, and Prigozhin waved his hand, there are tens of thousands of elite soldiers to follow the action, this ability to organize and mobilize, can not help but make the Russian government feel jealous, no matter how close Prigozhin and Putin's personal relationship is, this kind of mercenary organization with a big tail is difficult for any modern national government to accept. According to foreign media reports, in the past 16 months, Wagner's top commander on the Russian-Ukrainian front was Andrei Nikolaevich Troshev, codenamed "White-haired", which can largely be seen as a gesture of the Russian government's high-level plan to replace Wagner's high-level. Although there is no evidence at the moment, changing to a more "obedient" commander in order to control Wagner and serve the Russian government is also a potential possibility.
(Wagner not only showed courage on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield, but also had a broad "mass base" in Africa, which is probably the main reason why NATO hates Prigozhin, because Wagner's existence blocks the financial path of Western countries to exploit Africa)
Thirdly, the intelligence agencies of Ukraine, NATO, Poland, Lithuania and other countries are all suspected, and the most suspected. Among them, Ukraine wants to kill Prigozhin is not a day or two, in the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield, the most defeated Ukrainian army attack, gnawed the most Ukrainian hard bones of the force is Wagner, so Wagner has long been a thorn in the eyes of the Kiev authorities, must want to get rid of it quickly, Ukraine's suspicion is beyond doubt.
NATO, as Ukraine's biggest supporter, certainly wants to see the Russian-Ukrainian war develop in favor of Ukraine, but after Wagner went into battle, the entire war situation has undergone a huge reversal, the Ukrainian army has been defeated step by step, and NATO soldiers who participated in the Ukrainian army as mercenaries were also beaten to pieces by Wagner. And not only in Russia and Ukraine, in Africa, Wagner's influence is also increasing, which has a great impact on the control and exploitation of the world by Western countries, so the assassination of Prigozhin, leaving Wagner leaderless, can greatly reduce the military and political pressure faced by NATO in all aspects, which is also the biggest suspect factor in NATO.
(Due to Wagner's arrival, Lithuania is closing the Lithuanian border and inviting Germany to garrison Lithuania)
In addition to NATO, it is possible that the intelligence services of Poland and Lithuania will act alone and physically eliminate Prigozhin. This is because after the "rebellion", about 20,000 Wagner fighters were deployed to Belarus, and these 20,000 are elite fighters who have been tested by war on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield, and their combat effectiveness cannot be underestimated, especially the recent appearance of Wagner's team in the Suwałki corridor area connecting Poland and Lithuania, which has caused high tension between the two countries. To counter Wagner, Poland announced that it would increase its active force from 172,000 to 300,000, while Lithuania directly invited Germany to send a 4,000-strong combat brigade to Lithuania to strengthen its own defense capability. In this case, if Prigozhin can be directly physically eliminated, then the military pressure on both countries will be greatly reduced, so the possibility of Poland and Lithuania acting on their own also exists, and it is very large!
(For the killing of his boss, Wagner will never give up, NATO is waiting to meet the bloody storm)
All in all, Prigozhin's death will have a profound impact on the political situation in Russia and even in Eastern Europe as a whole. Can Russia do a good job in pacifying Wagner's aftermath, can it continue to control this sharp knife, can NATO gain a strategic respite, can it take this opportunity to divide and disintegrate the powerful Wagner group... This will be the central focus of the current struggle. Shortly after Prigozhin's plane crash, the Wagner telegram channel Grey Zone announced that Prigozhin had been killed by "a traitor to Russia." According to Wagner's style, a bloody storm is inevitable.